Absolute Vorticity

Nice post also Bgoney! Yes indeed we could use some "Help from our Friends" December being warm... we're kind of used to that but if we have to eat a portion of January, then it's like Deja Vu of last winter where it didn't come until February. You'd think that with a second year Nina, some blocking and a falling QBO... we'd have a different outcome. We still might. Having the MJO stall in 7 is better then it stalling in 3, 4, or 5.

Les, I very much agree with that statement: Having the MJO stall in 7 is better then it stalling in 3, 4, or 5.

I'll take a mixed bag or rn/sn events, any day during Met Winter. I'd rather see that than 60s, severe weather, and flooding we've seen for the last month.

westharrisonwx wrote: ↑Tue Dec 21, 2021 10:42 am Les, I very much agree with that statement: Having the MJO stall in 7 is better then it stalling in 3, 4, or 5.

I'll take a mixed bag or rn/sn events, any day during Met Winter. I'd rather see that than 60s, severe weather, and flooding we've seen for the last month.

We've got to get cold to avoid severe wx. We get this pattern come spring, it's going to get bad. Only way to avoid severe wx with a deep western trough is to have enough blocking to get colder. MJO has to progress along to relax the -PNA some or the continuation of the pattern will persist.

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 21, 2021 8:15 am Doesn't this seem like the Groundhog Day movie? Models have a nice colder shift in the fantasy range only to pull the rug out from us and say, sorry suckas!!! Seems like we have been playing this tune for weeks now. LOL

for weeks? more like years .. this year is turning out just like it was 2 years ago. the good stuff was always 2 weeks out. when I seen the Pacific Northwest getting good snows I knew it was over for our areas. if we get stuck in phase 7 this winter is gonna end up like 2007 and 2008

Great Posts this morning. This week will end up just a tad above normal though the Monday-Thursday time period is more like a late December day. Good thing is precip seems to be less than what models had shown at one time and that is because the temps are not getting quite as mild as they models showed a few days ago. Still going to be slightly above normal the 24th and 25th but nothing we have not seen before.

Next week it looks like more of a battle between the colder air to the northwest and the southeast ridge trying to poke its head up. That does truly look like your normal La Nina set up. So probably a wet period once again.

Alaska which just got hit with more snow is expecting more this weekend. They may even be getting tired of the snow lol. With the snow in the Barrow region which is unusual to have accumulating snow in Dec you had a record high yesterday of 32. Even much of Alaska warmed up with the recent system but we are unable to get the ridging to take hold and with that low hanging in the goa it just keeps the pattern locked up. Does that low get pushed around later next week and of course there are signs that could happen but when you see a snowy pattern and just keep adding snow on top of snow the push back sometimes keeps winning out. We have seen that around here though its a lot more rare of course.

Even the OP 12Z GFS continues to show a deep western trough into the New Year.

Good Afternoon and we are 2 hours into the winter season. I know winter weather lovers tend to get anxious when there is no winter like weather around and I understand but back to reality we are just 2 hours into a 2160 hour winter season. Summer lovers have it somewhat better because many love the hot and humid days and even if we have a cool May and June you can still do things outdoors. Winter time though was always tough and really the times you were out was when it snowed. I ended up falling in love with the weather because other activities for the most part were not going on during the winter. We played some football in the fall and always loved spring and summer for baseball but indoor sports besides basketball were not really around plus you needed to get a ride to these places and most family's back then only had one car.

So I am still very excited about the upcoming winter season and though Dec has not panned out like some thought we still have 2158 hours left.

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Dec 21, 2021 1:00 pm Good Afternoon and we are 2 hours into the winter season. I know winter weather lovers tend to get anxious when there is no winter like weather around and I understand but back to reality we are just 2 hours into a 2160 hour winter season. Summer lovers have it somewhat better because many love the hot and humid days and even if we have a cool May and June you can still do things outdoors. Winter time though was always tough and really the times you were out was when it snowed. I ended up falling in love with the weather because other activities for the most part were not going on during the winter. We played some football in the fall and always loved spring and summer for baseball but indoor sports besides basketball were not really around plus you needed to get a ride to these places and most family's back then only had one car.

So I am still very excited about the upcoming winter season and though Dec has not panned out like some thought we still have 2158 hours left.

Damn clock is already ticking...

Late in the 12Z GEFS run, the ridging finally builds into AK some and the SE ridge is flattened somewhat around 1/5 and beyond. It's a slow, slow process though. Heck of a gradient pattern! High risk, high reward.

12Z CMC Ensembles still colder and stormier then everyone else. Ridges are in a better position and you get almost a ridge bridge between the two. The Canadian Ensemble has yet to change course. It's been cold for days now right when we flip to 2022 where the rest of the Ensembles have backed off or delayed the idea.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 21, 2021 1:25 pm 12Z CMC Ensembles still colder and stormier then everyone else. Ridges are in a better position and you get almost a ridge bridge between the two. The Canadian Ensemble has yet to change course. It's been cold for days now right when we flip to 2022 where the rest of the Ensembles have backed off or delayed the idea.

Hey Les,when that happens I always wonder what info each model has received. Just and example would be the euro has the latest mjo from say Dec 17th and the CMC from the 19th. That could lead to different outcomes. This was only an example and was not looking at the mjo when making this example but I always wondered what info is thrown into the models and how new is the info as well.

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Dec 21, 2021 1:41 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 21, 2021 1:25 pm 12Z CMC Ensembles still colder and stormier then everyone else. Ridges are in a better position and you get almost a ridge bridge between the two. The Canadian Ensemble has yet to change course. It's been cold for days now right when we flip to 2022 where the rest of the Ensembles have backed off or delayed the idea.

Hey Les,when that happens I always wonder what info each model has received. Just and example would be the euro has the latest mjo from say Dec 17th and the CMC from the 19th. That could lead to different outcomes. This was only an example and was not looking at the mjo when making this example but I always wondered what info is thrown into the models and how new is the info as well.

I'm not exactly sure Tim what goes into each model esp since some of them come from other countries. Watching the OP Euro coming in now and it looks wet and mild the week between Christmas and New Year's. The western trough keeps ejecting pieces of energy. At 174 hours, you have three separate shortwaves from the OV to the West Coast. Looking busy!

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 21, 2021 1:44 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Dec 21, 2021 1:41 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 21, 2021 1:25 pm 12Z CMC Ensembles still colder and stormier then everyone else. Ridges are in a better position and you get almost a ridge bridge between the two. The Canadian Ensemble has yet to change course. It's been cold for days now right when we flip to 2022 where the rest of the Ensembles have backed off or delayed the idea.

Hey Les,when that happens I always wonder what info each model has received. Just and example would be the euro has the latest mjo from say Dec 17th and the CMC from the 19th. That could lead to different outcomes. This was only an example and was not looking at the mjo when making this example but I always wondered what info is thrown into the models and how new is the info as well.

I'm not exactly sure Tim what goes into each model esp since some of them come from other countries. Watching the OP Euro coming in now and it looks wet and mild the week between Christmas and New Year's. The western trough keeps ejecting pieces of energy. At 174 hours, you have three separate shortwaves from the OV to the West Coast. Looking busy!

I agree Les it looks busy but it also imo tends to look colder later in the week so maybe when I get back on Dec 31st we will be talking about some winter weather lol.

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Dec 21, 2021 1:52 pm I agree Les it looks busy but it also imo tends to look colder later in the week so maybe when I get back on Dec 31st we will be talking about some winter weather lol.

8-10 Day on the Euro is more deep -PNA... not the greatest of looks to end this year.

12Z EPS shows the same -PNA configuration thru the entre run ending 1/5. Sigh...

Happy first day of winter!

Going to see a lot of that for many days to come. Western US and even downtown Seattle are going to score with this pattern. We'll be up and down in temps with rain in between. Maybe a little frozen every now and then.

Wish I had better news guys. Hope things turn around soon! It'll feel like winter tomorrow. Lows in the 20s highs in the 30s. It's the best I got. We warm from here.

I am noticing that after a long string of positive SOI days it has begin to drop. 3 days is not a trend but it has fallen quickly to -27. Not sure if any impact that will have on the MJO wave,. It has gained some amperage in Phase 7 as of 12/20 per the Aussies. Let's see how she moves over the next week.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 21, 2021 7:48 pm I am noticing that after a long string of positive SOI days it has begin to drop. 3 days is not a trend but it has fallen quickly to -27. Not sure if any impact that will have on the MJO wave,. It has gained some amperage in Phase 7 as of 12/20 per the Aussies. Let's see how she moves over the next week.

Hey Les somewhere at some point I know I have read where a big drop like that and if it's only a brief 3 or 4 day drop, portends to a brief cold spell 18-21 days later in the lower 48, lol, hope we don't have to wait that long. I'm sure that's in one of my bookmarks , but atm feeling lazy to look it up

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Dec 21, 2021 8:01 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 21, 2021 7:48 pm I am noticing that after a long string of positive SOI days it has begin to drop. 3 days is not a trend but it has fallen quickly to -27. Not sure if any impact that will have on the MJO wave,. It has gained some amperage in Phase 7 as of 12/20 per the Aussies. Let's see how she moves over the next week.

Hey Les somewhere at some point I know I have read where a big drop like that and if it's only a brief 3 or 4 day drop, portends to a brief cold spell 18-21 days later in the lower 48, lol, hope we don't have to wait that long. I'm sure that's in one of my bookmarks , but atm feeling lazy to look it up

I'll buy it. That would mean mid January then. Yeah... let's hope the wait isn't that long. Half of winter is over by then.

The GEFS doesn't look as ugly... still not ideal but not as ugly in the Day 10-15 range. EPS still is ugly thru Day 10. GEPS still looking great and refuses to back down. Ridging is more into AK and the western trough instead of being centered over the Pacific NW, it is centered more over the Central Rockies which makes a big difference in suppressing the Se ridge giving us more snow and ice chances. GEFS is probably a good compromise between the GEPS and EPS models.

For now.. no changes really thru the end of December from me. A few showers around Christmas time, then we drop briefly. Then get wet and mild for next week with several systems coming out of the Western trough. 1-2" of rain plus not off the table.

29 here and at CVG this morning. NW winds kept temps up but will lead to a winter like day of the 30s for highs. Enjoy it.. last time we probably have a day in the 30s until January.

Fantasy Land I know... Overnight EPS has a good overrunning signal for early January. Not looking too bad actually. 500 map and a bonus precip map below.