Absolute Vorticity

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sun Jan 02, 2022 11:00 am Agree Les we are sniffing 8, I don't think it is a true 8 with all the clouds and moisture still north of Australia(7 phase), but we have nice convection near the invisible 7/8 border.

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young pup wrote: ↑Sun Jan 02, 2022 11:50 am Seeing my first snow shower of the new year.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 02, 2022 12:00 pm

young pup wrote: ↑Sun Jan 02, 2022 11:50 am Seeing my first snow shower of the new year.

Awesome! Nothing here yet but a broken band of flurries is swinging thru the area. Temps will continue to fall or remain steady pretty much for the rest of the day before falling off thru the 20s tonight. Mon - Wed looks dry and nice for the time of year then we'll see what 1/6 does. Gotta like the upcoming pattern offering up multiple chances over the next few weeks.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 02, 2022 12:17 pm Nice JP! Enjoy the festive flakes. Radar shows a nice snow shower in the CMH area too.

Sargent51 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 03, 2022 10:04 am maybe I am looking in the wrong place, but I can't seem to find "SNOWTALK" updates from BrianG. Last one I could find was 12/17?

cincy bud wrote: ↑Mon Jan 03, 2022 12:33 pm What are the thoughts for Thursday into Friday?

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Jan 03, 2022 1:55 pm Okay Les I have the correct thread for the weekend system. Again I will look at the models probably by Wednesday concerning this system. First thing to talk about is strength of a low pressure. This is important sometimes but not always. I have seen strong storms but the amount of moisture is not there and also the other way around with a weaker system but the GOM is wide open. That could happen this weekend as the GOM will have recovered from this past weekend storm plus the wind set up will be much better to produce heavier moisture further north. Of course with a stronger southerly wind direction you bring up warmer air. That should happen but first we will still have cold air at the surface. So the way I see this playing out is snow to break out later Saturday or Sunday but with a rather warm air moving rather quickly in the upper atmosphere the changeover happens and we end up with liquid. Will that be in the form of frz/rain for several hours or do we get that 3-4 period where the precip shuts down the milder air moves in even at the surface and we warm up before any frz/rain can cause problems. This is just an early thought process and will check it out more by Wednesday to see how the models are playing out this possible outcome or maybe I am missing the boat and we end up with noting at all. Just to early for a clear forecast at this morning but around here do we ever see a clear outcome on a winter system.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 03, 2022 3:57 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Jan 03, 2022 1:55 pm Okay Les I have the correct thread for the weekend system. Again I will look at the models probably by Wednesday concerning this system. First thing to talk about is strength of a low pressure. This is important sometimes but not always. I have seen strong storms but the amount of moisture is not there and also the other way around with a weaker system but the GOM is wide open. That could happen this weekend as the GOM will have recovered from this past weekend storm plus the wind set up will be much better to produce heavier moisture further north. Of course with a stronger southerly wind direction you bring up warmer air. That should happen but first we will still have cold air at the surface. So the way I see this playing out is snow to break out later Saturday or Sunday but with a rather warm air moving rather quickly in the upper atmosphere the changeover happens and we end up with liquid. Will that be in the form of frz/rain for several hours or do we get that 3-4 period where the precip shuts down the milder air moves in even at the surface and we warm up before any frz/rain can cause problems. This is just an early thought process and will check it out more by Wednesday to see how the models are playing out this possible outcome or maybe I am missing the boat and we end up with noting at all. Just to early for a clear forecast at this morning but around here do we ever see a clear outcome on a winter system.

Tim, I think first of all... do we get snow on Thurs or not. Say we get 2" or more then we will have very cold air Fri and only a slow moderation Sat. Then, how quickly does the precip move in for p-type which is what you are mentioning? That is problem #2. It's extremely easy right now to say the 40s and rain since the data shows that. But the data could change should we cash in on Thurs. The outcome of the next system around the 9th or 10th maybe altered somewhat depending on what happens on Thursday.

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Jan 03, 2022 5:57 pm Hey Les you know how bad models do in trying to get rid of dense cold air. This happens probably 5 times or more a year where we get some winter preicp though models sometimes never pick up it until the event happens. Even with no snow cover this is another nice shot of cold air and single digits imo are on the board even with no snow. So at this point I will stay with what I believe will happen and then by Wednesday start looking at the models to see what they show.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 03, 2022 6:12 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Jan 03, 2022 5:57 pm Hey Les you know how bad models do in trying to get rid of dense cold air. This happens probably 5 times or more a year where we get some winter preicp though models sometimes never pick up it until the event happens. Even with no snow cover this is another nice shot of cold air and single digits imo are on the board even with no snow. So at this point I will stay with what I believe will happen and then by Wednesday start looking at the models to see what they show.

If you have SW flow aloft and NE winds at the surface models always struggle. Totally agree. The next system is being shown as a cutter into the Lakes so it is def SW flow aloft all the way down to the surface so the cold air is in no way is going to win with a set up like that. It will lose rather easily. We would need a different set up then what the GFS and Euro are both showing, for example, for that outcome to change. It certainly could.

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Jan 03, 2022 6:32 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 03, 2022 6:12 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Jan 03, 2022 5:57 pm Hey Les you know how bad models do in trying to get rid of dense cold air. This happens probably 5 times or more a year where we get some winter preicp though models sometimes never pick up it until the event happens. Even with no snow cover this is another nice shot of cold air and single digits imo are on the board even with no snow. So at this point I will stay with what I believe will happen and then by Wednesday start looking at the models to see what they show.

If you have SW flow aloft and NE winds at the surface models always struggle. Totally agree. The next system is being shown as a cutter into the Lakes so it is def SW flow aloft all the way down to the surface so the cold air is in no way is going to win with a set up like that. It will lose rather easily. We would need a different set up then what the GFS and Euro are both showing, for example, for that outcome to change. It certainly could.

I agree Les and thanks for the info.I will look on Wednesday but it seems rather odd that a cutter would come in this fast with the nice trough hitting us at the mid-late week. No doubt possible but I will need more evidence before I bite on the cutter solution.

Woolyworm wrote: ↑Mon Jan 03, 2022 8:39 pm Woolyworm sending a message from the woodpile. Grandpa Wooly is now gone to the Great logpile so it's just me and Mrs. Wooly trying to figure out this crazy weather. The squirrels are acting like it's November and the moles are making tunnels like no one has ever seen.

Onto this storm. The first good snowfalls are iffy. Wouldn't get all excited about big numbers. The black hairs on our backs are not twitching. The ground hasn't been frozen for awhile. Mrs. Wooly isn't doing her dance yet. I'm getting ready to smoke chicken legs and a butt tomorrow for eats at duck camp in Ark next week. We shall see.

Woolyworm wrote: ↑Mon Jan 03, 2022 8:39 pm Woolyworm sending a message from the woodpile. Grandpa Wooly is now gone to the Great logpile so it's just me and Mrs. Wooly trying to figure out this crazy weather. The squirrels are acting like it's November and the moles are making tunnels like no one has ever seen.

Onto this storm. The first good snowfalls are iffy. Wouldn't get all excited about big numbers. The black hairs on our backs are not twitching. The ground hasn't been frozen for awhile. Mrs. Wooly isn't doing her dance yet. I'm getting ready to smoke chicken legs and a butt tomorrow for eats at duck camp in Ark next week. We shall see.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 04, 2022 7:06 am 19 here this morning.