January 2022 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

Agree Les we are sniffing 8, I don't think it is a true 8 with all the clouds and moisture still north of Australia(7 phase), but we have nice convection near the invisible 7/8 border.

abpwsair.jpg
r5s_snd_1520.jpg
Screenshot_20220102-104752_Amazon Photos.jpg
Screenshot_20220102-074211_Amazon Photos.jpg

Just another nudge further eastbound ought to do it. Either way, so far the 500 MB end result looks really good thru probably 1/20 as it stands right now. Just hope the individual features can produce.

[young pup]

Seeing my first snow shower of the new year.

[tron777]

Seeing my first snow shower of the new year.

Awesome! Nothing here yet but a broken band of flurries is swinging thru the area. Temps will continue to fall or remain steady pretty much for the rest of the day before falling off thru the 20s tonight. Mon - Wed looks dry and nice for the time of year then we'll see what 1/6 does. Gotta like the upcoming pattern offering up multiple chances over the next few weeks.

[young pup]

Seeing my first snow shower of the new year.

Awesome! Nothing here yet but a broken band of flurries is swinging thru the area. Temps will continue to fall or remain steady pretty much for the rest of the day before falling off thru the 20s tonight. Mon - Wed looks dry and nice for the time of year then we'll see what 1/6 does. Gotta like the upcoming pattern offering up multiple chances over the next few weeks.

Still going. Didn't even see it on radar 30 minutes ago. Nothing sticking of course. Pavement is just wet. Looking forward to the chances that is for sure. I hate the rain this time of year.

Edit: It is sticking to the tree limbs. LOL

[tron777]

Nice JP! Enjoy the festive flakes. Radar shows a nice snow shower in the CMH area too.

[young pup]

Nice JP! Enjoy the festive flakes. Radar shows a nice snow shower in the CMH area too.

Most definitely.

[tron777]

Temps continue to drop. 31 CVG, 32 here.

[tron777]

12Z GEFS and GEPS both look good to keep the wintry like pattern going out to Day 16. Again, all we can ask for is a good pattern and hope the chances come. 1st half of January should offer up a couple of chances.

[tron777]

Good morning folks and obviously, our main focus for the opening week of 2022 is the snow event coming up on Thurs 1/6. Dry today, Tues and Wed with 30s and 40s for temps can be expected.

[tron777]

For those with river interests, the Ohio at Cincinnati is forecast to crest later this week at 50 feet, 2 foot below flood stage. I would imagine the usual low water spots / roads maybe closed for a few days. East End, Kellogg, you know the usual areas.

https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrogr ... o1&wfo=iln

[Sargent51]

maybe I am looking in the wrong place, but I can't seem to find "SNOWTALK" updates from BrianG. Last one I could find was 12/17?

[tron777]

maybe I am looking in the wrong place, but I can't seem to find "SNOWTALK" updates from BrianG. Last one I could find was 12/17?

He hasn't done one for a while. I haven't seen them either. He might have had time off?

[cincy bud]

What are the thoughts for Thursday into Friday?

[tron777]

What are the thoughts for Thursday into Friday?

We are discussing the event in a separate thread:

http://absolutevorticity.com/viewtopic. ... 9&start=25

[tpweather]

Okay Les I have the correct thread for the weekend system. Again I will look at the models probably by Wednesday concerning this system. First thing to talk about is strength of a low pressure. This is important sometimes but not always. I have seen strong storms but the amount of moisture is not there and also the other way around with a weaker system but the GOM is wide open. That could happen this weekend as the GOM will have recovered from this past weekend storm plus the wind set up will be much better to produce heavier moisture further north. Of course with a stronger southerly wind direction you bring up warmer air. That should happen but first we will still have cold air at the surface. So the way I see this playing out is snow to break out later Saturday or Sunday but with a rather warm air moving rather quickly in the upper atmosphere the changeover happens and we end up with liquid. Will that be in the form of frz/rain for several hours or do we get that 3-4 period where the precip shuts down the milder air moves in even at the surface and we warm up before any frz/rain can cause problems. This is just an early thought process and will check it out more by Wednesday to see how the models are playing out this possible outcome or maybe I am missing the boat and we end up with noting at all. Just to early for a clear forecast at this morning but around here do we ever see a clear outcome on a winter system.

[tron777]

Okay Les I have the correct thread for the weekend system. Again I will look at the models probably by Wednesday concerning this system. First thing to talk about is strength of a low pressure. This is important sometimes but not always. I have seen strong storms but the amount of moisture is not there and also the other way around with a weaker system but the GOM is wide open. That could happen this weekend as the GOM will have recovered from this past weekend storm plus the wind set up will be much better to produce heavier moisture further north. Of course with a stronger southerly wind direction you bring up warmer air. That should happen but first we will still have cold air at the surface. So the way I see this playing out is snow to break out later Saturday or Sunday but with a rather warm air moving rather quickly in the upper atmosphere the changeover happens and we end up with liquid. Will that be in the form of frz/rain for several hours or do we get that 3-4 period where the precip shuts down the milder air moves in even at the surface and we warm up before any frz/rain can cause problems. This is just an early thought process and will check it out more by Wednesday to see how the models are playing out this possible outcome or maybe I am missing the boat and we end up with noting at all. Just to early for a clear forecast at this morning but around here do we ever see a clear outcome on a winter system.

Tim, I think first of all... do we get snow on Thurs or not. Say we get 2" or more then we will have very cold air Fri and only a slow moderation Sat. Then, how quickly does the precip move in for p-type which is what you are mentioning? That is problem #2. It's extremely easy right now to say the 40s and rain since the data shows that. But the data could change should we cash in on Thurs. The outcome of the next system around the 9th or 10th maybe altered somewhat depending on what happens on Thursday.

[tpweather]

Okay Les I have the correct thread for the weekend system. Again I will look at the models probably by Wednesday concerning this system. First thing to talk about is strength of a low pressure. This is important sometimes but not always. I have seen strong storms but the amount of moisture is not there and also the other way around with a weaker system but the GOM is wide open. That could happen this weekend as the GOM will have recovered from this past weekend storm plus the wind set up will be much better to produce heavier moisture further north. Of course with a stronger southerly wind direction you bring up warmer air. That should happen but first we will still have cold air at the surface. So the way I see this playing out is snow to break out later Saturday or Sunday but with a rather warm air moving rather quickly in the upper atmosphere the changeover happens and we end up with liquid. Will that be in the form of frz/rain for several hours or do we get that 3-4 period where the precip shuts down the milder air moves in even at the surface and we warm up before any frz/rain can cause problems. This is just an early thought process and will check it out more by Wednesday to see how the models are playing out this possible outcome or maybe I am missing the boat and we end up with noting at all. Just to early for a clear forecast at this morning but around here do we ever see a clear outcome on a winter system.

Tim, I think first of all... do we get snow on Thurs or not. Say we get 2" or more then we will have very cold air Fri and only a slow moderation Sat. Then, how quickly does the precip move in for p-type which is what you are mentioning? That is problem #2. It's extremely easy right now to say the 40s and rain since the data shows that. But the data could change should we cash in on Thurs. The outcome of the next system around the 9th or 10th maybe altered somewhat depending on what happens on Thursday.

Hey Les you know how bad models do in trying to get rid of dense cold air. This happens probably 5 times or more a year where we get some winter preicp though models sometimes never pick up it until the event happens. Even with no snow cover this is another nice shot of cold air and single digits imo are on the board even with no snow. So at this point I will stay with what I believe will happen and then by Wednesday start looking at the models to see what they show.

[tron777]

Hey Les you know how bad models do in trying to get rid of dense cold air. This happens probably 5 times or more a year where we get some winter preicp though models sometimes never pick up it until the event happens. Even with no snow cover this is another nice shot of cold air and single digits imo are on the board even with no snow. So at this point I will stay with what I believe will happen and then by Wednesday start looking at the models to see what they show.

If you have SW flow aloft and NE winds at the surface models always struggle. Totally agree. The next system is being shown as a cutter into the Lakes so it is def SW flow aloft all the way down to the surface so the cold air is in no way is going to win with a set up like that. It will lose rather easily. We would need a different set up then what the GFS and Euro are both showing, for example, for that outcome to change. It certainly could.

[tpweather]

Hey Les you know how bad models do in trying to get rid of dense cold air. This happens probably 5 times or more a year where we get some winter preicp though models sometimes never pick up it until the event happens. Even with no snow cover this is another nice shot of cold air and single digits imo are on the board even with no snow. So at this point I will stay with what I believe will happen and then by Wednesday start looking at the models to see what they show.

If you have SW flow aloft and NE winds at the surface models always struggle. Totally agree. The next system is being shown as a cutter into the Lakes so it is def SW flow aloft all the way down to the surface so the cold air is in no way is going to win with a set up like that. It will lose rather easily. We would need a different set up then what the GFS and Euro are both showing, for example, for that outcome to change. It certainly could.

I agree Les and thanks for the info.I will look on Wednesday but it seems rather odd that a cutter would come in this fast with the nice trough hitting us at the mid-late week. No doubt possible but I will need more evidence before I bite on the cutter solution.

[tron777]

Hey Les you know how bad models do in trying to get rid of dense cold air. This happens probably 5 times or more a year where we get some winter preicp though models sometimes never pick up it until the event happens. Even with no snow cover this is another nice shot of cold air and single digits imo are on the board even with no snow. So at this point I will stay with what I believe will happen and then by Wednesday start looking at the models to see what they show.

If you have SW flow aloft and NE winds at the surface models always struggle. Totally agree. The next system is being shown as a cutter into the Lakes so it is def SW flow aloft all the way down to the surface so the cold air is in no way is going to win with a set up like that. It will lose rather easily. We would need a different set up then what the GFS and Euro are both showing, for example, for that outcome to change. It certainly could.

I agree Les and thanks for the info.I will look on Wednesday but it seems rather odd that a cutter would come in this fast with the nice trough hitting us at the mid-late week. No doubt possible but I will need more evidence before I bite on the cutter solution.

We are starting to lose the NAO blocking though so troughs can come in and lift out faster. There looks to be just enough ridging between the troughs for two days of 40s (this weekend) which is when that next front comes in to bring us rain. Early call would be Sat night or Sunday right now for that one.

[Woolyworm]

Woolyworm sending a message from the woodpile. Grandpa Wooly is now gone to the Great logpile so it's just me and Mrs. Wooly trying to figure out this crazy weather. The squirrels are acting like it's November and the moles are making tunnels like no one has ever seen.

Onto this storm. The first good snowfalls are iffy. Wouldn't get all excited about big numbers. The black hairs on our backs are not twitching. The ground hasn't been frozen for awhile. Mrs. Wooly isn't doing her dance yet. I'm getting ready to smoke chicken legs and a butt tomorrow for eats at duck camp in Ark next week. We shall see.

[snowbo]

Woolyworm sending a message from the woodpile. Grandpa Wooly is now gone to the Great logpile so it's just me and Mrs. Wooly trying to figure out this crazy weather. The squirrels are acting like it's November and the moles are making tunnels like no one has ever seen.

Onto this storm. The first good snowfalls are iffy. Wouldn't get all excited about big numbers. The black hairs on our backs are not twitching. The ground hasn't been frozen for awhile. Mrs. Wooly isn't doing her dance yet. I'm getting ready to smoke chicken legs and a butt tomorrow for eats at duck camp in Ark next week. We shall see.

LOL!! Let us know when Mrs Wooly is ready to do her dance! I wouldn't want to miss that!!! Good luck hunting!!! Brother-in law just got back from a hunt in Tennessee. So-so luck....been too warm.

[tron777]

Woolyworm sending a message from the woodpile. Grandpa Wooly is now gone to the Great logpile so it's just me and Mrs. Wooly trying to figure out this crazy weather. The squirrels are acting like it's November and the moles are making tunnels like no one has ever seen.

Onto this storm. The first good snowfalls are iffy. Wouldn't get all excited about big numbers. The black hairs on our backs are not twitching. The ground hasn't been frozen for awhile. Mrs. Wooly isn't doing her dance yet. I'm getting ready to smoke chicken legs and a butt tomorrow for eats at duck camp in Ark next week. We shall see.

Always love reading your posts! Please keep it up. Have a blast (literally) hunting next week!

[tron777]

19 here this morning.

[airwolf76]

19 here this morning.

13 here. felt nice as long as your not out for too long