Absolute Vorticity

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Nov 01, 2021 6:28 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Nov 01, 2021 9:33 am NAmerican snow cover as has been mentioned is off to a slow start as a whole. Awful in Canada. Siberia looks like its slightly below normal to me
siberi16.png

Les not only has the snow cover been awful in Canada but the temps well above normal. Siberia is getting really cold as it should and their are signs Canada will start to head towards normal for them but will be interesting if the snow cover remains below average for them.

Tim, I agree. Canada should be playing some catch up in the coming weeks, but not to the extent that Siberia is. We will need to be patient.

Good morning everyone! A freeze warning is in effect for tonight for the Tri-state area on south. Finally!

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 28 expected.

* WHERE...Portions of Southeast Indiana, Northeast and Northern
Kentucky and Central, South Central and Southwest Ohio.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 10 AM EDT Wednesday.

Things are looking pretty quiet until about Thurs or Fri of next week. Until then expect below avg temps thru the weekend with 60s returning early next week with a warming trend ahead of that next system towards the end of next week.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 02, 2021 7:16 am Good morning everyone! A freeze warning is in effect for tonight for the Tri-state area on south. Finally!

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 28 expected.

* WHERE...Portions of Southeast Indiana, Northeast and Northern
Kentucky and Central, South Central and Southwest Ohio.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 10 AM EDT Wednesday.

Finally is key Les and cutting my grass shorter today and hopefully the freeze will help with the bad allergies this fall season. I usually don't have a lot of problems in the fall but this season with the amount of rainfall has kept me sneezing all season.

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Nov 02, 2021 7:20 am Finally is key Les and cutting my grass shorter today and hopefully the freeze will help with the bad allergies this fall season. I usually don't have a lot of problems in the fall but this season with the amount of rainfall has kept me sneezing all season.

I'm with ya Tim... good riddance to some of those allergies! Leaf grinding will continue for me for the month of November and going to try and trim up the trees this weekend and take advantage of the dry pattern.

I am trying to figure out where the snowstorm that Kevin Robinson has been talking about is.

cincy bud wrote: ↑Tue Nov 02, 2021 8:47 am I am trying to figure out where the snowstorm that Kevin Robinson has been talking about is.

Dry and cool... there isn't one. I gave up on that idea many days ago.

37 at CVG this morning. BG SnowTalk! https://www.wave3.com/2021/11/02/snowta ... -blog-112/

Talk about a torch!

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Nov 02, 2021 11:12 am Screenshot_20211102-111120_Chrome.jpg

That seems correct and let mother nature even things out and hopefully a more normal November and below normal December would be nice.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 02, 2021 11:27 am Talk about a torch!

As has been the case for quite some time now, I would assume overnight lows played a bigger role in the departure from normal than daytime highs.

dce wrote: ↑Tue Nov 02, 2021 11:35 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 02, 2021 11:27 am Talk about a torch!

As has been the case for quite some time now, I would assume overnight lows played a bigger role in the departure from normal than daytime highs.

I agree completely Doug.

Through October ice comparison

I believe the sea ice melt this spring got off to a late start so when we started adding ice over the past month of so we started from a place where more ice was leftover from the previous year. This all makes sense imo and of course we have talked about this for years.

I think the ice melting less this past summer has helped with the re-freeze process. That's a good thing IMO. Just need to wait a few more weeks to see how things evolve.

If the timing is correct I may see some snow on Friday morning going through the NC mountains. I will try and take a pic if I see snow falling and should be between 10a-11a.

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Nov 02, 2021 2:25 pm If the timing is correct I may see some snow on Friday morning going through the NC mountains. I will try and take a pic if I see snow falling and should be between 10a-11a.

Awesome! Safe travels of course, but I would love to see a pic of some actual real snow to satisfy my craving.

How cold do we get tonight. Winds should die down and clear sky except their may be some high clouds from the system to the south of here. I am going with 28 at CVG though folks to the north of here could see some mid 20's imo. Further south if the high clouds come in quickly then 32 may be the low for them. Plenty of folks will see frost and some a killing freeze. Mowed my grass low finally and hopefully over the next 2-3 weeks the only problem I will have is leftover leaves when I return.

Wow! You're going pretty cold Tim for CVG. Hope you're right! I was thinking 30-32 myself because of those high clouds that you mentioned. We should get a nice frost or a light freeze either way. A hard freeze is possible the next 2 nights for those that get calm winds and clear skies.

First snow of the season coming for the hills of Geauga County...
NWS Cleveland latest call
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
337 PM EDT Tue Nov 2 2021

OHZ013-PAZ003-031945-
Geauga-Crawford-
337 PM EDT Tue Nov 2 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Ohio and northwest
Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

A rain/snow mix will transition to lake effect snow tonight. Snow
accumulations of one to two inches are expected, with locally higher
amounts in higher elevations possible. Snow may be moderate to heavy
at times, potentially resulting in reduced visibilities and slippery
road conditions.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Lake effect snow will continue into Wednesday morning before
transitioning to rain by late Wednesday morning. Although additional
accumulations will be light, there may be slippery roads during the
morning commute.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

$$

Awesome Jeff! Please post a pic if you can when you see those flakes flying in Chardon!

I hit 51 for my high today, CVG topped out at 49. Temps are starting to fall already as myself and CVG are down to 47 as of 5pm. The growing season looks to come to an end the next couple of nights. Thank goodness!

Currently 45 here in Greenville and progged for around 28 Wed morning.

Good afternoon (almost evening) everyone! Not much to talk about in the short term other then frosts / freezes. We will see warming temps this weekend and going into next week. We should crack 60+ (above normal temps) by early next week. However, it should be short lived. Our next chance for significant rain looks to be around Thurs / Fri next week. The question after that is do we turn colder for a more sustainable period of time or not? Are models rushing it a bit as is typical?

The first image are the 0Z Ensembles models from the GFS Ensemble, Canadian Ensemble, and the Euro Ensemble.


The only 12Z Ensemble I ran across was the Euro Ensemble, so here it is:


We'll see what happens but if correct, I suspect a colder pattern to settle in sometime during the 2nd half of November, The question is... when?