March 2025 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

Visible sat this morning shows the back edge of the clouds working into Western IN (sunny in ILL) so sometime this afternoon, we should also begin to see some sunshine as well. Clouds will be on the increase again towards morning ahead of that late Fri thru early Sat wave.

[tron777]

[tron777]

So far on the 12z models, nothing major as far as any changes go. The short term and medium range look good (cool to warm and rain / snow to dryness). We also know by Wed night or Thurs of next week, the next front moves thru with some rain.

A more significant system looks to come in with wind, rain, and storms all possible ending as backside flakes. This one is next weekend so about 10 days from now. This one should have a better warm sector to play with as well as better moisture return versus the last storm we just went thru. Confidence in strong winds is there but severe wx is an unknown obviously this far out but it will def have to be watched as with any storm from here on out.

[tron777]

[tron777]

5pm climate report only has a trace of snow at CVG so officially, we are not adding anymore to the contest from the last system.

[MVWxObserver]

CVG got to 44, DAY 40 and CMH 38 today.

[tron777]

Good morning all! Lots to talk about this morning. To begin... some rain and snow showers are possible tonight ending early tomorrow morning. No issues expected. No accumulation expected. Then we begin to warm up by Sunday with a taste of spring next week. 60s thru Wed maybe even touching 70 is possible too. Then we get some light rain on Thursday with a stronger system for next Saturday. Strong storms with either of these systems? Too early to know but something that we need to keep an eye on.

In the extended range, IMO we will see below avg temps for the last part of March and into early April. We have talked about the MJO before but a bigger potential factor is a SSW event. This one (per the latest data) shows a complete wind reversal and collapse of the PV. If this is correct and goes the right way (remember, a SSW event does not guarantee cold in the Eastern US) then we are not quite done with cooler wx and even some snow too. We'll see, but IMO next week is "false spring."

[tron777]

[MVWxObserver]

Good morning all! Lots to talk about this morning. To begin... some rain and snow showers are possible tonight ending early tomorrow morning. No issues expected. No accumulation expected. Then we begin to warm up by Sunday with a taste of spring next week. 60s thru Wed maybe even touching 70 is possible too. Then we get some light rain on Thursday with a stronger system for next Saturday. Strong storms with either of these systems? Too early to know but something that we need to keep an eye on.

In the extended range, IMO we will see below avg temps for the last part of March and into early April. We have talked about the MJO before but a bigger potential factor is a SSW event. This one (per the latest data) shows a complete wind reversal and collapse of the PV. If this is correct and goes the right way (remember, a SSW event does not guarantee cold in the Eastern US) then we are not quite done with cooler wx and even some snow too. We'll see, but IMO next week is "false spring."

Nuts, I was hoping for mild temps to be the norm rather than the exception by late March / early April. Hopefully by mid April onward then.

[tron777]

BG's video will be starting shortly:

[Bgoney]

I’m not impressed to much with the cold for later this month. A few days below normal then near normal temps , still fairly typical for March.

[MVWxObserver]

CVG / DAY both reached 44 and CMH 43 today.

[tpweather]

Good Morning and yes off to the races with some very mild air coming in over the next several days. When we start looking at spring one main item is rainfall. Very important early in the season to see rain in the south because if they miss out on this summer can take over quickly and also this can lead to drought conditions. So far everything looks good and most of the south will getting some rainfall over the next week to 10 days. Locally we love to see the biggest part of the rainy season in the late April to early June period. Of course a bad pattern can lead you into drought but getting near to above normal rainfall in that time period does help or at least in a bad summer pattern gives you a little extra time before the dryness sets in. Getting spring snow and rain out west and the northern plains is nice to see as these areas tend to be dry later in the spring and throughout the summer. At the moment looking nice though the northern plains could use some more precip but again they don't average a lot so a little bit goes a long way. Time to get the shorts out early in the week but that is scary so may wait a little longer

[tron777]

Good morning all! Dry weather is now expected thru Friday along with some spring like temps! 40s today, 50s tomorrow then the 60s on Sunday. U60s to L70s Wed thru Friday. The weekend is when issues arise with heavy rain potential and t-storms. It is this system that will usher in more seasonal to at times, below normal temps.

In the extended range... more active weather is likely. Snow is a crap shoot this time of year and everything has to come together just right for it to happen. Nighttime for the timing, dynamic cooling, upper lows, etc. Those are the types of systems we need for spring snow. While chances are low, they are not zero. Sometime around the 17-22nd is the time period I am watching for that. We shall see. Until then, enjoy next week because it'll be awesome!

[tpweather]

Still have that nip in the air with the breeze but by Sunday it will really start to feel nice. Rainfall will be on the low side if any all week though maybe a brief shower Thursday. Next weekend looks like some decent rainfall and we could use some and hopefully somewhere in the 1 inch range would be nice. Then more chances later this month. At the moment 1 degree below normal for the month and by this time next week we will probably be in the 3-5 degrees above normal if not a tad more. We still have some cold weather later in the month and that will try and get us closer to normal before the month ends. What will April bring and lets hope more rainfall.

[tron777]

Still have that nip in the air with the breeze but by Sunday it will really start to feel nice. Rainfall will be on the low side if any all week though maybe a brief shower Thursday. Next weekend looks like some decent rainfall and we could use some and hopefully somewhere in the 1 inch range would be nice. Then more chances later this month. At the moment 1 degree below normal for the month and by this time next week we will probably be in the 3-5 degrees above normal if not a tad more. We still have some cold weather later in the month and that will try and get us closer to normal before the month ends. What will April bring and lets hope more rainfall.

I completely agree Tim. Met Spring continues to look wet and stormy despite the "false spring" coming up next week.

[MVWxObserver]

CVG got to 48, DAY 46 and CMH 45 today.

[MVWxObserver]

Don't forget to spring forward this evening and also check the smoke detectors!

[tpweather]

Good Morning and really not many changes from the forecast yesterday. A chance of a shower on Thursday but will be isolated for the most part. Then starting later Friday into the weekend is the puzzle. Should get the first round later Friday as warm moist air should be able to produce some rainfall. Then on Saturday where will the front be located will no doubt have a big influence of where the heaviest rain falls. At the moment it looks like somebody in the Ohio Valley could end up with over 2 inches but it goes back and forth where that may occur. The low itself looks quite strong but usually these systems a dry punch will push in somewhere and that can bust rainfall forecasts. Going to stick with around 1 inch from both periods but again bust both ways this far out is very possible.

[tron777]

Good morning all! I like the 1" call Tim until we can determine the timing and how this thing evolves. There will no doubt be severe wx occurring to our West as the week unfolds. Even on Friday as well. But, as usual, what about us? Will we get the better timing or will it arrive at night? What about the low itself? Will it be occluding already and if so, that will cut down on the severe threat as well as the heavy rain threat. Does the front stall for a time as it comes thru? That would raise the heavy rain threat, Lots of questions that will make for some good discussion as the week goes on.

For now though, it is all about spring over the next week. Despite a cool morning, this afternoon looks wonderful with temps in the upper 50s. 60s Monday, upper 60s maybe 70 on Tues. 70 or better for Wed thru Friday. Saturday also looks to be mild but high temps are in question depending on when the rain arrives.

[tpweather]

Great Post Les and by Friday if everything turns out perfect would not be surprised to see us getting into the mid-70's. I always look for that day or two where we are just south and east of a front and that is when we tend to go over the expected high temps. This happens quite often in the summer.

[tron777]

Great Post Les and by Friday if everything turns out perfect would not be surprised to see us getting into the mid-70's. I always look for that day or two where we are just south and east of a front and that is when we tend to go over the expected high temps. This happens quite often in the summer.

Agreed Tim. I could see CVG hitting 75 and LOU getting close to that 80 degree mark for Friday right ahead of the rain / frontal boundary.

[tron777]

SPC has outlooks out already for Friday (1st pic) and Saturday 92nd pic). This will obviously change as we go forward in time.

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[MVWxObserver]

CVG reached 60, DAY 59 and CMH 58 today.

[tron777]

Good morning! No changes for now guys to the forecast. We continue to track spring like temps this week, a weak shower chance Thurs, then Fri night last thru early Sun morning for our next potential more significant event.

For temps... Still looking good with the 60s today and tomorrow with 70 plus Wed thru Fri at least. My thoughts on rainfall are that a warm front brings in showers late Fri night into early Sat morning. Then a break. Very windy with strong SW winds. Temps should hit 70 or so again. Then Sat evening into the overnight is when strong storms are possible with the cold frontal passage. Everything is done by the time you wake up Sun morning and we are cooler in the 50s for highs then. Rainfall amounts... I am keeping it at an inch for now. Lower if no storms get involved, could be higher if we do see storms so I am splitting the difference at this time.

Finally... the updated SPC outlooks for Friday and Saturday.

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