Absolute Vorticity

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Feb 02, 2024 8:23 am The Groundhog did not see its shadow. This means an early spring lol. I saw my shadow one day and ran but the darn thing followed me.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Feb 02, 2024 9:13 am After the next ten days of precipitation Caleefornya is going to be in great shape for the rest of summer, 2 years in a row . Been a while since that has happened




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Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Feb 02, 2024 9:13 am After the next ten days of precipitation Caleefornya is going to be in great shape for the rest of summer, 2 years in a row . Been a while since that has happened




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tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Feb 02, 2024 10:12 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Feb 02, 2024 9:13 am After the next ten days of precipitation Caleefornya is going to be in great shape for the rest of summer, 2 years in a row . Been a while since that has happened




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Always nice to see California get rain and mountain snows. They have the same problem that Portugal and Spain has and that is the rainy season is in the winter. Beautiful places to live weather wise most of the year and if they could only get some rain in other seasons.

winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Fri Feb 02, 2024 9:55 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Feb 02, 2024 9:13 am After the next ten days of precipitation Caleefornya is going to be in great shape for the rest of summer, 2 years in a row . Been a while since that has happened




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Then look at the OV, another dry summer on the way, Ugh!

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Feb 02, 2024 5:46 am Going to be one of those weeks that really gets the sugar maple sap flowing. Mid month + PNA still looks good for a nice cool down . Hopefully it holds on for a while.

Trevor wrote: ↑Sat Feb 03, 2024 5:52 am Looking ahead at the latest run of the GEFS and while there continues to be support for cooler shots the second half of the month, this just continues to not look all that impressive to me. Temp anomalies look to run a couple to a few degrees cooler than normal which would put us in the upper 30s to 40. Avg highs by mid month are 45 so it would take a really significant pattern shift to bring in COLD air. I'm just not seeing it folks. I stand by my call for the 3.8" we saw in Jan being our biggest snow of the season.

tpweather wrote: ↑Sat Feb 03, 2024 8:15 am Great Posts this morning. Most years February is the month where you get back door cold fronts and that is where you can get some winter like weather. The PV from what most experts are talking about is a stretched out look which again brings cold air but not like in January. This looks to be located in the eastern 1/3 of the mainland USA. This puts us on the border between seasonal cold or several degrees below normal type of cold. These types of patterns many times give us ice storms which you can give me 45 and rain before ice. The pattern is already underway and again models will have some wild outcomes. I believe its going to be a very busy month starting late next week in terms of storms. Does this mean snow and we just need the timing correct. As we know snow cover in the northern plains and south central Canada is way below normal and in some places zero which seldom happens. The good thing is the snow cover in the eastern part of Canada is better but not perfect. So I expect a nice 3-4 weeks of winter weather and then an early spring. Why an early spring and the reason is because of the groundhog lol. With a below normal snow pack to the west and northwest of us in March can make it easier to get mild and stay mild. Even with a early spring you will have a day or two with below normal temps into April but overall I believe warm is the way to go. Hoping for a better spring in terms of rainfall than last year but a little too early to predict but I do worry the rains come early in the spring and by May and June the rains are less and that can lead to a hot and dry summer. Sure we are above normal in precip so far this year but we were this way last year and then got drier than normal

tpweather wrote: ↑Sat Feb 03, 2024 9:07 am Trev we disagree on how deep the trough will be. Models and yes they are better than 10 years ago but still have problems with new patterns. We saw this in December as it was a last minute change when models caught on to how deep and cold the PV was. Models are terrible with colder outbreaks even just with a stretching of the PV. We can look at the MJO but the forecasts on them has been horrible the last month and Les caught onto this early. So I would go with the 12th Feb-8th of March and again this can be off a few days is when we have a wonderful stretch of winter weather. Could we be unlucky and have 2 storms where its 36 and rain and no doubt but overall its a pattern that will bring chances. I believe with the El Nino having systems coming into Southern California instead of central Mexico will lead to a much different outcome than we saw in Dec and probably the sunniest December I ever remember. Of course Mother Nature evened the score with so many days in mid-late January of clouds.

Of course the best weather forecasters are farmers and again we don't have as many with huge farms more the norm. They have seen it all and their lively hood depended on the weather and they were able to adjust because of their knowledge. Concerning analogs and they can be used sometimes but rare to have a perfect match and then folks start combining years that are close and that is where they get in trouble.

We have started the change and one big starting point is the storms coming into western Alaska which will change the really cold pattern to one of above normal temps in probably about a week or so. Like I mentioned yesterday getting big storms can change patterns and they don't need to be in the mainland USA.

Will we see a -22 in eastern Kentucky this time and no but several days with lows near 10 is very possible.