February 2024 Weather Discussion

[tpweather]

The Groundhog did not see its shadow. This means an early spring lol. I saw my shadow one day and ran but the darn thing followed me.

[tron777]

The Groundhog did not see its shadow. This means an early spring lol. I saw my shadow one day and ran but the darn thing followed me.

[Bgoney]

After the next ten days of precipitation Caleefornya is going to be in great shape for the rest of summer, 2 years in a row . Been a while since that has happened

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[winterstormjoe]

After the next ten days of precipitation Caleefornya is going to be in great shape for the rest of summer, 2 years in a row . Been a while since that has happened




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Then look at the OV, another dry summer on the way, Ugh!

[tpweather]

After the next ten days of precipitation Caleefornya is going to be in great shape for the rest of summer, 2 years in a row . Been a while since that has happened




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Always nice to see California get rain and mountain snows. They have the same problem that Portugal and Spain has and that is the rainy season is in the winter. Beautiful places to live weather wise most of the year and if they could only get some rain in other seasons.

[tpweather]

After the next ten days of precipitation Caleefornya is going to be in great shape for the rest of summer, 2 years in a row . Been a while since that has happened




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Always nice to see California get rain and mountain snows. They have the same problem that Portugal and Spain has and that is the rainy season is in the winter. Beautiful places to live weather wise most of the year and if they could only get some rain in other seasons.

Just wanted to add more info to the post. Last year they got rain in the last year of a La Nina which was rare and like Bgoney mentioned another good year with the El Nino. The El Nino early this winter season had missed California for the most part and that was a worry but the new pattern of systems coming into California is more typical of an El Nino and hopefully this will keep us busy this month as systems roll across the country and hopefully head for the Carolina or mid-Atlantic instead of Florida like the current system and many systems this winter.

[tron777]

After the next ten days of precipitation Caleefornya is going to be in great shape for the rest of summer, 2 years in a row . Been a while since that has happened




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Then look at the OV, another dry summer on the way, Ugh!

I am currently expecting a hot summer and a weak Nina for next winter.

[tron777]

45 beautiful degrees out there! Nice weather thru Thurs per the 12Z OP GFS and rain moves in with a dying cold front on Fri. Next system rolls out of the SW the following weekend. It is a rainy cutter, and then a third system comes into S California and that is our V day or 15th system to keep the one eye open idea with.

[tron777]

12Z GFS lags the southern energy so it comes out in pieces. 6Z run brought the energy out in one bigger piece.

[Trevor]

I definitely think we see colder shots of air second half of the month but I just don’t see anything too crazy or anything sustained. Snow chances are of course on the table but that comes down to timing and track aka luck lol

[Trevor]

Having said that, it is pretty clear that the first half of the month will be above normal and the second half below normal which should average out to normal temperatures by month's end. Looking ahead to March, it does appear we will start cooler than normal.

[MVWxObserver]

Going to be one of those weeks that really gets the sugar maple sap flowing. Mid month + PNA still looks good for a nice cool down . Hopefully it holds on for a while.

Here in Greenville the Shawnee Prairie Preserve and Nature Center has its annual Maple syrup / sugar festival the first Sat in March.

[MVWxObserver]

CVG got to 48 and both DAY / CMH 47 today.

[MVWxObserver]

Since the wx is boring and lame in our part of the country currently.

Nice line of storms traversing across TX tonight.

I have a 2nd cousin on Dad's side of the family who resides in Flower Mound, TX near Dallas and some FB wxbuddies in / near the DFW region, too.

* Primary threats include...

Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible

Isolated damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible

A tornado or two possible

[Trevor]

Looking ahead at the latest run of the GEFS and while there continues to be support for cooler shots the second half of the month, this just continues to not look all that impressive to me. Temp anomalies look to run a couple to a few degrees cooler than normal which would put us in the upper 30s to 40. Avg highs by mid month are 45 so it would take a really significant pattern shift to bring in COLD air. I'm just not seeing it folks. I stand by my call for the 3.8" we saw in Jan being our biggest snow of the season.

[Trevor]

Here's the GFS precip totals through the 19th. We run over an inch below normal.

[Bgoney]

Looking ahead at the latest run of the GEFS and while there continues to be support for cooler shots the second half of the month, this just continues to not look all that impressive to me. Temp anomalies look to run a couple to a few degrees cooler than normal which would put us in the upper 30s to 40. Avg highs by mid month are 45 so it would take a really significant pattern shift to bring in COLD air. I'm just not seeing it folks. I stand by my call for the 3.8" we saw in Jan being our biggest snow of the season.

Airmass wise Trev, still on the same page. I’m going out to about the 18th for now . Colder yes , but the ridge axis as you illustrated , and was talked about earlier, is still bringing PAC originated air mass (modified) over the northern Rockies into the central states and OV, putting the arctic airmass to our north and east. Does this change the last 10 days of the month? It depends where the good old MJO goes. Snow ? Who knows. I just hope Imby I don’t break last year’s total of below double digits

[tpweather]

Great Posts this morning. Most years February is the month where you get back door cold fronts and that is where you can get some winter like weather. The PV from what most experts are talking about is a stretched out look which again brings cold air but not like in January. This looks to be located in the eastern 1/3 of the mainland USA. This puts us on the border between seasonal cold or several degrees below normal type of cold. These types of patterns many times give us ice storms which you can give me 45 and rain before ice. The pattern is already underway and again models will have some wild outcomes. I believe its going to be a very busy month starting late next week in terms of storms. Does this mean snow and we just need the timing correct. As we know snow cover in the northern plains and south central Canada is way below normal and in some places zero which seldom happens. The good thing is the snow cover in the eastern part of Canada is better but not perfect. So I expect a nice 3-4 weeks of winter weather and then an early spring. Why an early spring and the reason is because of the groundhog lol. With a below normal snow pack to the west and northwest of us in March can make it easier to get mild and stay mild. Even with a early spring you will have a day or two with below normal temps into April but overall I believe warm is the way to go. Hoping for a better spring in terms of rainfall than last year but a little too early to predict but I do worry the rains come early in the spring and by May and June the rains are less and that can lead to a hot and dry summer. Sure we are above normal in precip so far this year but we were this way last year and then got drier than normal

[Trevor]

Great Posts this morning. Most years February is the month where you get back door cold fronts and that is where you can get some winter like weather. The PV from what most experts are talking about is a stretched out look which again brings cold air but not like in January. This looks to be located in the eastern 1/3 of the mainland USA. This puts us on the border between seasonal cold or several degrees below normal type of cold. These types of patterns many times give us ice storms which you can give me 45 and rain before ice. The pattern is already underway and again models will have some wild outcomes. I believe its going to be a very busy month starting late next week in terms of storms. Does this mean snow and we just need the timing correct. As we know snow cover in the northern plains and south central Canada is way below normal and in some places zero which seldom happens. The good thing is the snow cover in the eastern part of Canada is better but not perfect. So I expect a nice 3-4 weeks of winter weather and then an early spring. Why an early spring and the reason is because of the groundhog lol. With a below normal snow pack to the west and northwest of us in March can make it easier to get mild and stay mild. Even with a early spring you will have a day or two with below normal temps into April but overall I believe warm is the way to go. Hoping for a better spring in terms of rainfall than last year but a little too early to predict but I do worry the rains come early in the spring and by May and June the rains are less and that can lead to a hot and dry summer. Sure we are above normal in precip so far this year but we were this way last year and then got drier than normal

3-4 weeks of winter weather to come? That’s a bold call. What is your criterion for that?

[tron777]

I think the period of Mid Feb thru the first 10 days of March are about all we have left for prime snow climo. Mid March tops. I think we'll have the opportunity of one or two thread making storm threads. Of course that doesn't mean it'll pan out. I keep hearting Feb 2010 talk for the pattern but I am not seeing it at all. The pattern looks complex and we need the help of phasing... which we never do well in anymore these days it seems like. Been the winter pattern for years no matter what ENSO or QBO state we are in.

I still believe that the MJO slowly gets it into Phase 8 by second week of Feb and with lag, V-day onwards still seems like a good call for a change to cooler and less above avg temps. I don't see arctic January type air, but air cold enough for snow is there.

[Trevor]

Without sharper, deeper troughs it's just not going to happen. We need a more amplified pattern. Our source region for phases will not be all that great either. For winter storm potentials you don't want the air to the west and north to be marginal at best.

[Trevor]

Here's a look at the 00z GEFS run. I added in the average high line which starts at 41 and ends at 45. As we hit the last part of February there is much more fighting against cold and snow on any given year, but especially in a Nino year (albeit weakening).

[tpweather]

Trev we disagree on how deep the trough will be. Models and yes they are better than 10 years ago but still have problems with new patterns. We saw this in December as it was a last minute change when models caught on to how deep and cold the PV was. Models are terrible with colder outbreaks even just with a stretching of the PV. We can look at the MJO but the forecasts on them has been horrible the last month and Les caught onto this early. So I would go with the 12th Feb-8th of March and again this can be off a few days is when we have a wonderful stretch of winter weather. Could we be unlucky and have 2 storms where its 36 and rain and no doubt but overall its a pattern that will bring chances. I believe with the El Nino having systems coming into Southern California instead of central Mexico will lead to a much different outcome than we saw in Dec and probably the sunniest December I ever remember. Of course Mother Nature evened the score with so many days in mid-late January of clouds.

Of course the best weather forecasters are farmers and again we don't have as many with huge farms more the norm. They have seen it all and their lively hood depended on the weather and they were able to adjust because of their knowledge. Concerning analogs and they can be used sometimes but rare to have a perfect match and then folks start combining years that are close and that is where they get in trouble.

We have started the change and one big starting point is the storms coming into western Alaska which will change the really cold pattern to one of above normal temps in probably about a week or so. Like I mentioned yesterday getting big storms can change patterns and they don't need to be in the mainland USA.

Will we see a -22 in eastern Kentucky this time and no but several days with lows near 10 is very possible.

[Trevor]

Trev we disagree on how deep the trough will be. Models and yes they are better than 10 years ago but still have problems with new patterns. We saw this in December as it was a last minute change when models caught on to how deep and cold the PV was. Models are terrible with colder outbreaks even just with a stretching of the PV. We can look at the MJO but the forecasts on them has been horrible the last month and Les caught onto this early. So I would go with the 12th Feb-8th of March and again this can be off a few days is when we have a wonderful stretch of winter weather. Could we be unlucky and have 2 storms where its 36 and rain and no doubt but overall its a pattern that will bring chances. I believe with the El Nino having systems coming into Southern California instead of central Mexico will lead to a much different outcome than we saw in Dec and probably the sunniest December I ever remember. Of course Mother Nature evened the score with so many days in mid-late January of clouds.

Of course the best weather forecasters are farmers and again we don't have as many with huge farms more the norm. They have seen it all and their lively hood depended on the weather and they were able to adjust because of their knowledge. Concerning analogs and they can be used sometimes but rare to have a perfect match and then folks start combining years that are close and that is where they get in trouble.

We have started the change and one big starting point is the storms coming into western Alaska which will change the really cold pattern to one of above normal temps in probably about a week or so. Like I mentioned yesterday getting big storms can change patterns and they don't need to be in the mainland USA.

Will we see a -22 in eastern Kentucky this time and no but several days with lows near 10 is very possible.

If this were earlier in winter I would tend to agree with you re: model struggles but we are talking the last part of winter which makes a big difference in how wintry we can get. Other than an anomalous winter storm like 2008 and the like, we just don't do too well here in late winter.

I hope I am wrong and you pull this off! I'd love to have another bout of real wintry weather before spring breaks. But I just don't see anything that impresses me all that much. I do think we average below for the second half of the month but not by much. Good luck man.

[tpweather]

Trev its great to have different outlooks. I know Les and I once in awhile have different opinions on the certain storms or longer term outlooks and its funny how much of the time the weather is between those two outcomes. That may be the case here as well.