Ohio Valley Weather Observation & Discussion
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It tracks what's left of Philippe so far West now that our trough pulls it westward and into Maine. I've been seeing it come further and further west over the last 2 days but this is the furthest west solution I've seen yet.Good morning Tim and thanks!tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Oct 04, 2023 8:07 am Good Morning Les and wonderful posts this morning. Blocking as we know makes such a difference and even more so in the fall and winter. If this pattern continues through the winter we will not be bored.I like the system next week and the western GOM is ready to explode with moisture. Sounds like Mother Nature may be trying to balance things out but we never know what she is up too.
Next weekend's system is very interesting. Can you imagine such a set up in January? It would be like January 1994 all over again! 
From NWS Fairbanks
I'll be rooting for if any rainfall, on the lighter side for at least up my way as our 2nd garage sale is planned for Sat 10/14.tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 04, 2023 8:01 am Looking ahead... some of the models are trying to phase in an upper low dropping in from the NW with a low coming up from the Gulf. In other words, the next trough coming in by late next week / next weekend October 13-15th time period, grabs the Gulf low with a lot of moisture and phases it with the low dropping in from the NW on the polar jet to create a big upper low with a lot of rain. Should this play out, we would all see some very much needed rainfall. If they do not phase then all you get is the northern stream moisture which of course will be on the lighter side. Since we are still going to be in a blocking pattern, this scenario shown by the models does carry some weight and needs to be watched. This will be our next weather forecasting challenge once we get past the change to Fall.
Speaking of which, more and more models are showing what's left of Philippe merging with this weekend's incoming trough and it either hits Atlantic Canada or Maine. Pretty wild to see two landfalling tropical systems potentially hitting almost the same area. Wild times ahead guys if the blocking can stay put. I am drooling over this winter should this pattern persist. It may not but if it does... boy oh boy, we're going to have some fun!
If we can see a few t-storms with this system, I could definitely see a few spots get that 1/2" plus total. I think most folks will fall into that 0.15 to 0.35" range so basically right in line with your thinking.tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Oct 04, 2023 8:32 am Yesterday we saw the models upping rainfall totals a tad. I believe with the slow moving front on Thursday that it makes sense. I am going with 0.25-0.50 for most folks. Like any system a few may be under the total and a few over. Getting a 1/2 inch in early Oct followed by cooler air is very helpful. Trees are going into the dormant stage so less water needed as well. Expect a big outflow of leaves off the trees this weekend which should take care of the many dead ones that happened during the short term drought. I expect next week to look beautiful as more and more trees will be showing color. Going to mow today and get up more leaves and the grass has grown somewhat with the rain we had and warm temps.
We shall see Bro! We have a lot of time to watch that particular system. If it's a phase then a widespread soaking rainfall for everyone is likely. Otherwise, a period of light rain if we do not see the phase and it won't be a big deal. Either way, a reinforcing shot of cool air will follow.MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Wed Oct 04, 2023 8:34 amI'll be rooting for if any rainfall, on the lighter side for at least up my way as our 2nd garage sale is planned for Sat 10/14.tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 04, 2023 8:01 am Looking ahead... some of the models are trying to phase in an upper low dropping in from the NW with a low coming up from the Gulf. In other words, the next trough coming in by late next week / next weekend October 13-15th time period, grabs the Gulf low with a lot of moisture and phases it with the low dropping in from the NW on the polar jet to create a big upper low with a lot of rain. Should this play out, we would all see some very much needed rainfall. If they do not phase then all you get is the northern stream moisture which of course will be on the lighter side. Since we are still going to be in a blocking pattern, this scenario shown by the models does carry some weight and needs to be watched. This will be our next weather forecasting challenge once we get past the change to Fall.
Speaking of which, more and more models are showing what's left of Philippe merging with this weekend's incoming trough and it either hits Atlantic Canada or Maine. Pretty wild to see two landfalling tropical systems potentially hitting almost the same area. Wild times ahead guys if the blocking can stay put. I am drooling over this winter should this pattern persist. It may not but if it does... boy oh boy, we're going to have some fun!
Hopefully we'll sell the majority of items this Sat!
I will be heading out of town early tomorrow and coming back on Sunday. I'll have to pack a lot of warm clothes. Leaving in shorts, will be returning in a hoodie and jeans most likely. You are correct Tim. Per NWS BIS, typically for Western and Central ND it is the last week of Sept. This is about a week or two late.
Enjoy your trip Les. I am heading to Wisconsin around the 26 of Oct for about 10 days and they way it looks at this point I may be there when some snow is flying.tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 04, 2023 3:25 pm 84 as of the 3pm reading at CVG. Agree on the record not being met and it'll be safe for another year. Not much change to report from my end. Tim's above post has us covered very nicely.
Thanks Tim! It wouldn't surprise me. When I went to Mich to visit my cousin a few years ago around Halloween they had snow flurries on 11/1 when I was driving home.tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Oct 04, 2023 3:47 pmEnjoy your trip Les. I am heading to Wisconsin around the 26 of Oct for about 10 days and they way it looks at this point I may be there when some snow is flying.tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 04, 2023 3:25 pm 84 as of the 3pm reading at CVG. Agree on the record not being met and it'll be safe for another year. Not much change to report from my end. Tim's above post has us covered very nicely.
84 still at 4pm. No doubt the high clouds made a 1-3 degree difference but I was not expecting this many high clouds lol. No way we get close to 80 on Thursday even with a strong wind. I mowed the yard this morning and got up all the leaves and within 1 hour a huge gust of wind knocked down more leaves than I had picked up earlier. May wait til the weekend and have a nice fire pittron777 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 04, 2023 4:01 pmThanks Tim! It wouldn't surprise me. When I went to Mich to visit my cousin a few years ago around Halloween they had snow flurries on 11/1 when I was driving home.tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Oct 04, 2023 3:47 pmEnjoy your trip Les. I am heading to Wisconsin around the 26 of Oct for about 10 days and they way it looks at this point I may be there when some snow is flying.tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 04, 2023 3:25 pm 84 as of the 3pm reading at CVG. Agree on the record not being met and it'll be safe for another year. Not much change to report from my end. Tim's above post has us covered very nicely.
In the last decade or so its been mid-November except I have two pair trees in front that sometimes more like Thanksgiving. The trees in the backyard are usually done by Halloween but this year I may be done before heading to Wisconsin. My son said they are just about at peak up there even with the warm temps during the past month.tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 04, 2023 4:26 pm I did my leaves for the first time last weekend, and they aren't too thick yet so mine can wait until next week. I'm sure with the wind that we will have coming in with this strong cold front, we'll have a bunch more coming down. Leaf grinding season is just getting underway and it'll be ongoing for me for the next month and a half most likely. On years where the leaves take longer then normal to come down, I have even had to mulch them up in December. With the early leaf drop this year, I hope to be done at my normal time which is mid to late November.
I have a big oak tree in the side yard and it's always the last to drop. The big maple in the front yard is one of the first and a big black walnut tree in the backyard also drops early. Neighbor has 2 oaks to my SW and I always get their leaves too when we get those strong SW winds. My ash tree is in the middle... doesn't drop as early as the maple but not as late as the oak either. We have a lot of trees as you can see.tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Oct 04, 2023 4:30 pmIn the last decade or so its been mid-November except I have two pair trees in front that sometimes more like Thanksgiving. The trees in the backyard are usually done by Halloween but this year I may be done before heading to Wisconsin. My son said they are just about at peak up there even with the warm temps during the past month.tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 04, 2023 4:26 pm I did my leaves for the first time last weekend, and they aren't too thick yet so mine can wait until next week. I'm sure with the wind that we will have coming in with this strong cold front, we'll have a bunch more coming down. Leaf grinding season is just getting underway and it'll be ongoing for me for the next month and a half most likely. On years where the leaves take longer then normal to come down, I have even had to mulch them up in December. With the early leaf drop this year, I hope to be done at my normal time which is mid to late November.
I expect to see some nice color when I go to S Mich tomorrow.