Ohio Valley Weather Observation & Discussion
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Going to start wrapping mine up this week.tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Oct 05, 2022 3:10 pm Starting to see freeze warnings in North Dakota with temps in some places expected in the mid 10's. This air mass started with temps below 0 in Northern Canada. Of course we will not get that cold but I believe many areas can expect temps in the 30's on Saturday morning and low 30's Sunday morning. Not sure it will be a killing frost for everyone but no doubt many plants will have their last say this week.
I think it's going to depend on the phased or unphased look. GFS shows what you're saying and the Euro has a bigger system so a better temp drop behind it. We have time to see which solution is right but the GFS makes sense following the trends of persistence as in no rain.tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Oct 05, 2022 3:33 pm Les what I am starting to see for next week is the cold we thought would hit here later in the week may not be that bad since some of that cold will try and sink into the western states. Will watch this and would not surprise me if that happened. Still believe we could get back into the 30's but it may be more of a one night event and then we warm up again.
I agree Les and at this moment the gfs seems the correct way to go with the forecast.tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 05, 2022 3:45 pmI think it's going to depend on the phased or unphased look. GFS shows what you're saying and the Euro has a bigger system so a better temp drop behind it. We have time to see which solution is right but the GFS makes sense following the trends of persistence as in no rain.tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Oct 05, 2022 3:33 pm Les what I am starting to see for next week is the cold we thought would hit here later in the week may not be that bad since some of that cold will try and sink into the western states. Will watch this and would not surprise me if that happened. Still believe we could get back into the 30's but it may be more of a one night event and then we warm up again.
Beautiful sunrise as some moisture is trying to move in the area. The radar looks quite nice to the west around Bloomington and some rain has fell to the ground over Terre Haute. Moving into drier air so again going to be hard to get rain to the ground but again would not be surprised to see a shower or two but they will be hit and miss.
Les if we can keep those warm waters near the northwest coast of the USA a positive PNA is likely which probably means cold but could be dry. Could be the 3rd year La Nina where we get some decent cold air but storminess is not that great but it seems we tend to get a few giant storms with this set up though.tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 06, 2022 1:43 pm Nothing unexpected going on concerning La Nina. We knew it would get stronger even into November. Me personally, believes it will weaken I hope come December versus January to help save the back half of winter. I do however, believe the Nina won't act like a strong Nina with a raging -PNA like we had last December. The +PNA has been awfully persistent this year, which we didn't have last year. Will it mean the same ole thing in the end or something different this winter? I don't know.
We'll see where we stand in a few weeks but the Nina not going away anytime soon is no surprise. I am just unclear if it will act like the last 2 Nina winters have, or will we front loaded for a change?tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Oct 06, 2022 3:57 pmLes if we can keep those warm waters near the northwest coast of the USA a positive PNA is likely which probably means cold but could be dry. Could be the 3rd year La Nina where we get some decent cold air but storminess is not that great but it seems we tend to get a few giant storms with this set up though.tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 06, 2022 1:43 pm Nothing unexpected going on concerning La Nina. We knew it would get stronger even into November. Me personally, believes it will weaken I hope come December versus January to help save the back half of winter. I do however, believe the Nina won't act like a strong Nina with a raging -PNA like we had last December. The +PNA has been awfully persistent this year, which we didn't have last year. Will it mean the same ole thing in the end or something different this winter? I don't know.
Mother Nature I believe is giving us some clues that we may have an earlier start to winter. The leaves are going to peak earlier than normal which has not been the case for several years.Nice cold snaps in the first part of October bodes well imo as well.tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 06, 2022 3:59 pmWe'll see where we stand in a few weeks but the Nina not going away anytime soon is no surprise. I am just unclear if it will act like the last 2 Nina winters have, or will we front loaded for a change?tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Oct 06, 2022 3:57 pmLes if we can keep those warm waters near the northwest coast of the USA a positive PNA is likely which probably means cold but could be dry. Could be the 3rd year La Nina where we get some decent cold air but storminess is not that great but it seems we tend to get a few giant storms with this set up though.tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 06, 2022 1:43 pm Nothing unexpected going on concerning La Nina. We knew it would get stronger even into November. Me personally, believes it will weaken I hope come December versus January to help save the back half of winter. I do however, believe the Nina won't act like a strong Nina with a raging -PNA like we had last December. The +PNA has been awfully persistent this year, which we didn't have last year. Will it mean the same ole thing in the end or something different this winter? I don't know.
12Z Euro has went drier next week as we expected like the GFS... but the Euro also has a nice cold shot brewing as we head towards Day 10.
All that's left is to keep a few grass seed spots dampened down and my newly sowed spinach seeds. Otherwise, leaf grinding season and a touch of grass is all I should have left outside to do before the flakes fly. Oh... and winterize my power washer. Agreed! I think I am doing the right thing by taking the plants down for the season. Will finish up just in time after work today.tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Oct 07, 2022 7:45 am Good Morning Les, I expect a rather large area of the tri-state to get frost over the next 2 nights. Of course some outlying areas will no doubt get into the upper 20's as well. Late next week looks even colder so if somehow you miss out on the killing frost this weekend by next weekend everyone's growing season should be in the books.
It's coming early this year so I am scrambling. I believe Mother Nature is giving signs to an early winter. Sure November will warm up and that is no problem with me as you must get really cold in the arctic regions. How brutal is still a big question but I will try and post more in the winter forecast area this weekendtron777 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 07, 2022 7:47 amAgreed! I think I am doing the right thing by taking the plants down for the season. Will finish up just in time after work today.tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Oct 07, 2022 7:45 am Good Morning Les, I expect a rather large area of the tri-state to get frost over the next 2 nights. Of course some outlying areas will no doubt get into the upper 20's as well. Late next week looks even colder so if somehow you miss out on the killing frost this weekend by next weekend everyone's growing season should be in the books.
I also hope to have some time to look more longer term then also.tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Oct 07, 2022 7:56 amI believe Mother Nature is giving signs to an early winter. Sure November will warm up and that is no problem with me as you must get really cold in the arctic regions. How brutal is still a big question but I will try and post more in the winter forecast area this weekendtron777 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 07, 2022 7:47 amAgreed! I think I am doing the right thing by taking the plants down for the season. Will finish up just in time after work today.tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Oct 07, 2022 7:45 am Good Morning Les, I expect a rather large area of the tri-state to get frost over the next 2 nights. Of course some outlying areas will no doubt get into the upper 20's as well. Late next week looks even colder so if somehow you miss out on the killing frost this weekend by next weekend everyone's growing season should be in the books.
Been busy working, done with my training now. I'm actually getting assigned tickets and setting up appointments with people now. Much better then being tied to the phone., I only email, IM, or make outgoing calls now. 