Rocktober 2022 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

Biggest issue I am seeing for next week is the GFS keeps the jet streams separate and more of a ridging pattern in place. Systems are weak with minimal rain chances Euro keeps showing a more phased system and we get decent rains by the middle of next week. I see nothing to track until then minus temps for frost this weekend.

[tron777]

Starting to see freeze warnings in North Dakota with temps in some places expected in the mid 10's. This air mass started with temps below 0 in Northern Canada. Of course we will not get that cold but I believe many areas can expect temps in the 30's on Saturday morning and low 30's Sunday morning. Not sure it will be a killing frost for everyone but no doubt many plants will have their last say this week.

Going to start wrapping mine up this week.

[tpweather]

Les what I am starting to see for next week is the cold we thought would hit here later in the week may not be that bad since some of that cold will try and sink into the western states. Will watch this and would not surprise me if that happened. Still believe we could get back into the 30's but it may be more of a one night event and then we warm up again.

[tron777]

Les what I am starting to see for next week is the cold we thought would hit here later in the week may not be that bad since some of that cold will try and sink into the western states. Will watch this and would not surprise me if that happened. Still believe we could get back into the 30's but it may be more of a one night event and then we warm up again.

I think it's going to depend on the phased or unphased look. GFS shows what you're saying and the Euro has a bigger system so a better temp drop behind it. We have time to see which solution is right but the GFS makes sense following the trends of persistence as in no rain.

[tpweather]

Les what I am starting to see for next week is the cold we thought would hit here later in the week may not be that bad since some of that cold will try and sink into the western states. Will watch this and would not surprise me if that happened. Still believe we could get back into the 30's but it may be more of a one night event and then we warm up again.

I think it's going to depend on the phased or unphased look. GFS shows what you're saying and the Euro has a bigger system so a better temp drop behind it. We have time to see which solution is right but the GFS makes sense following the trends of persistence as in no rain.

I agree Les and at this moment the gfs seems the correct way to go with the forecast.

[MVWxObserver]

Both CVG and CMH reached 76 and DAY 78 today.

[tron777]

Let's see if anyone can see a bit of rain with the front today. Chances are low but good luck to all anyway! If you see rain, play the lottery!

[tpweather]

Let's see if anyone can see a bit of rain with the front today. Chances are low but good luck to all anyway! If you see rain, play the lottery!

Beautiful sunrise as some moisture is trying to move in the area. The radar looks quite nice to the west around Bloomington and some rain has fell to the ground over Terre Haute. Moving into drier air so again going to be hard to get rain to the ground but again would not be surprised to see a shower or two but they will be hit and miss.

[tron777]

Sat morning in our area down here (Cincy Metro), frost looks patchy but Sun morning, it should be widespread for everyone. Wind relaxing is the concern for Sat morning, but it will be dead calm Sat night so no issue with getting frost to form there.

[cloudy72]

Let's see if anyone can see a bit of rain with the front today. Chances are low but good luck to all anyway! If you see rain, play the lottery!

Sure hope so - can't remember the last time it rained! LOL

[tron777]

Let's see if anyone can see a bit of rain with the front today. Chances are low but good luck to all anyway! If you see rain, play the lottery!

Sure hope so - can't remember the last time it rained! LOL

9/25 for CVG

[Bgoney]

LANINA update sees conditions creeping stronger. Persistent easterlies, region 1,2 down to -1.8, which can only mean region 3.4 cooling will grow in the weeks ahead. MJO as expected is starting to flounder compared to projections and expect that to continue, I see no way the MJO reaches a moderate strength in the pac as predicted and fully expect it to die in the pac at some point

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[tron777]

Nothing unexpected going on concerning La Nina. We knew it would get stronger even into November. Me personally, believes it will weaken I hope come December versus January to help save the back half of winter. I do however, believe the Nina won't act like a strong Nina with a raging -PNA like we had last December. The +PNA has been awfully persistent this year, which we didn't have last year. Will it mean the same ole thing in the end or something different this winter? I don't know.

[tpweather]

Nothing unexpected going on concerning La Nina. We knew it would get stronger even into November. Me personally, believes it will weaken I hope come December versus January to help save the back half of winter. I do however, believe the Nina won't act like a strong Nina with a raging -PNA like we had last December. The +PNA has been awfully persistent this year, which we didn't have last year. Will it mean the same ole thing in the end or something different this winter? I don't know.

Les if we can keep those warm waters near the northwest coast of the USA a positive PNA is likely which probably means cold but could be dry. Could be the 3rd year La Nina where we get some decent cold air but storminess is not that great but it seems we tend to get a few giant storms with this set up though.

[tron777]

Nothing unexpected going on concerning La Nina. We knew it would get stronger even into November. Me personally, believes it will weaken I hope come December versus January to help save the back half of winter. I do however, believe the Nina won't act like a strong Nina with a raging -PNA like we had last December. The +PNA has been awfully persistent this year, which we didn't have last year. Will it mean the same ole thing in the end or something different this winter? I don't know.

Les if we can keep those warm waters near the northwest coast of the USA a positive PNA is likely which probably means cold but could be dry. Could be the 3rd year La Nina where we get some decent cold air but storminess is not that great but it seems we tend to get a few giant storms with this set up though.

We'll see where we stand in a few weeks but the Nina not going away anytime soon is no surprise. I am just unclear if it will act like the last 2 Nina winters have, or will we front loaded for a change?

[tpweather]

Nothing unexpected going on concerning La Nina. We knew it would get stronger even into November. Me personally, believes it will weaken I hope come December versus January to help save the back half of winter. I do however, believe the Nina won't act like a strong Nina with a raging -PNA like we had last December. The +PNA has been awfully persistent this year, which we didn't have last year. Will it mean the same ole thing in the end or something different this winter? I don't know.

Les if we can keep those warm waters near the northwest coast of the USA a positive PNA is likely which probably means cold but could be dry. Could be the 3rd year La Nina where we get some decent cold air but storminess is not that great but it seems we tend to get a few giant storms with this set up though.

We'll see where we stand in a few weeks but the Nina not going away anytime soon is no surprise. I am just unclear if it will act like the last 2 Nina winters have, or will we front loaded for a change?

Mother Nature I believe is giving us some clues that we may have an earlier start to winter. The leaves are going to peak earlier than normal which has not been the case for several years.Nice cold snaps in the first part of October bodes well imo as well.

[tpweather]

Les the gfs so far is keeping the drier forecast for next week with a really nice cold shot. I love that forecast except we need the rain.

[tron777]

Les the gfs so far is keeping the drier forecast for next week with a really nice cold shot. I love that forecast except we need the rain.

12Z Euro has went drier next week as we expected like the GFS... but the Euro also has a nice cold shot brewing as we head towards Day 10.

[tron777]

Good evening all! 75 here today, 65 now. CVG topped out at 75 too. How have you all been enjoying the nice weather? I've been busy the last 2 afternoons after work dismantling the flowers / tomatoes, beans, etc. and I've got the spices left to go after work tomorrow Going to clip off what I want and dehydrate the rest for usage later. All that's left is to keep a few grass seed spots dampened down and my newly sowed spinach seeds. Otherwise, leaf grinding season and a touch of grass is all I should have left outside to do before the flakes fly. Oh... and winterize my power washer.

[MVWxObserver]

DAY reached 79, CMH 77 and CVG 75 on Thurs.

[tron777]

Good Friday morning to you all! Frost advisory in effect for parts of the area tonight. Frost / freeze advisories for all areas tomorrow night.

...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY...
...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...

* WHAT...For the Frost Advisory, temperatures as low as 34 will
result in frost formation. For the Freeze Watch, sub-freezing
temperatures as low as 32 possible.

* WHERE...Portions of Southeast Indiana, Northeast and Northern
Kentucky and South Central and Southwest Ohio.

* WHEN...For the Frost Advisory, from 2 AM to 10 AM EDT
Saturday. For the Freeze Watch, from late Saturday night
through Sunday morning.

* IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other
sensitive vegetation.

[tpweather]

Good Morning Les, I expect a rather large area of the tri-state to get frost over the next 2 nights. Of course some outlying areas will no doubt get into the upper 20's as well. Late next week looks even colder so if somehow you miss out on the killing frost this weekend by next weekend everyone's growing season should be in the books.

[tron777]

Good Morning Les, I expect a rather large area of the tri-state to get frost over the next 2 nights. Of course some outlying areas will no doubt get into the upper 20's as well. Late next week looks even colder so if somehow you miss out on the killing frost this weekend by next weekend everyone's growing season should be in the books.

Agreed! I think I am doing the right thing by taking the plants down for the season. Will finish up just in time after work today. It's coming early this year so I am scrambling.

[tpweather]

Good Morning Les, I expect a rather large area of the tri-state to get frost over the next 2 nights. Of course some outlying areas will no doubt get into the upper 20's as well. Late next week looks even colder so if somehow you miss out on the killing frost this weekend by next weekend everyone's growing season should be in the books.

Agreed! I think I am doing the right thing by taking the plants down for the season. Will finish up just in time after work today. It's coming early this year so I am scrambling.

I believe Mother Nature is giving signs to an early winter. Sure November will warm up and that is no problem with me as you must get really cold in the arctic regions. How brutal is still a big question but I will try and post more in the winter forecast area this weekend

[tron777]

Good Morning Les, I expect a rather large area of the tri-state to get frost over the next 2 nights. Of course some outlying areas will no doubt get into the upper 20's as well. Late next week looks even colder so if somehow you miss out on the killing frost this weekend by next weekend everyone's growing season should be in the books.

Agreed! I think I am doing the right thing by taking the plants down for the season. Will finish up just in time after work today. It's coming early this year so I am scrambling.

I believe Mother Nature is giving signs to an early winter. Sure November will warm up and that is no problem with me as you must get really cold in the arctic regions. How brutal is still a big question but I will try and post more in the winter forecast area this weekend

I also hope to have some time to look more longer term then also. Been busy working, done with my training now. I'm actually getting assigned tickets and setting up appointments with people now. Much better then being tied to the phone., I only email, IM, or make outgoing calls now.