Absolute Vorticity

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Jun 27, 2021 12:44 pm Speaking of the upper low, the GFS cuts it off near Chicago on Saturday. So if correct, a chance of showers would be in the forecast. Temps are going to be great in the 70s either way, but we need that low to be East of us to avoid the rain chances. I am pulling for the 0Z Euro run.

Here's cheering on for the 0Z Euro, Bro!!

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Watching a small line West of the Metro across SE IN. Some of you there look to get lucky with a nice down pour. Can it push a little further east to help out more people is the question.

Do we have a fireworks thread? I can't find one. I'm looking for something and wanted to post to see if anyone has seen it.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Jun 27, 2021 3:14 pm Watching a small line West of the Metro across SE IN. Some of you there look to get lucky with a nice down pour. Can it push a little further east to help out more people is the question.

Nah - my dome seems super charged today

Angelika wrote: ↑Sun Jun 27, 2021 4:16 pm Do we have a fireworks thread? I can't find one. I'm looking for something and wanted to post to see if anyone has seen it.

Yes Ma'am, under the Outdoors and Nature area. Here is a direct link to the thread for you:

https://www.absolutevorticity.com/viewt ... ?f=18&t=22

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Sun Jun 27, 2021 5:04 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Jun 27, 2021 3:14 pm Watching a small line West of the Metro across SE IN. Some of you there look to get lucky with a nice down pour. Can it push a little further east to help out more people is the question.

Nah - my dome seems super charged today

My Dome broke for the first time in a week and all I got was a rock. I mean a trace. High so far of 87, and the "ground wetter" cooled me down to 83. So you're not really missing much here. The damn thing weakened and fell apart as it hit The Dome.

Looks like CVG hit 88 I believe prior to that shower.

Another stellar summer day. Hopefully everyone can cash in at some point this week in the rain department and the on-going forecast. I think Tuesday will be our warmest day of our current stretch.

4th of July weekend as has been talked about is in the hands of an upper level low over the OV. How quickly it moves out of our region is in question and also precip. However, temps are not ,mid to upper 70's to low 80's for the region

CVG got 89'ed today.

18Z GFS is back to cutting the upper low off over Chicago for the Holiday Weekend. Models continue to bounce around from Chicago, to us, to even as far east as New England. Lots of uncertainty for sure. The forecast from now thru Friday IMO is in good shape. Increasing rain chances as time goes on with Wed - Fri looking like the highest chances.

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I got 89’ed in my hood as well

Day 9 of dry weather here - after that downpour we had things are starting to brown up again. Not really excited about rain in my hood today or tomorrow as activity will be scattered (which almost always misses me). Better chances as we have stated still look to be Wednesday onward.

Good morning all! Mike... I agree. I really have not had measurable rain here since that Sat everybody got hammered when I was out of town. Agree that Wed and Thurs continue to offer up the best chances for everyone. Also adding Friday for some too. Two more shots at a 90 degree day coming up. GFS wants the upper low to be close by for this weekend while the Euro blasts the front thru Thurs night / Fri morning and it's over. Awesome weekend is the end result. Come on Euro!

The humidity also will be going down probably on Fri or Sat depending on which solution is correct. For temps, I like this:

Today and Tues - Either side of 90
Wed and Thurs - Depends on clouds and rain coverage - 80 to 85
Fri - Sun: 75 to 80

That small tropical wave hitting Tim'sville is interesting, as there are some indications it adds a little moisture into areas just SE of our hoods , for now. Would love to see upcoming model runs to bring that moisture more NW tues night into Wednesday

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Jun 28, 2021 7:55 am That small tropical wave hitting Tim'sville is interesting, as there are some indications it adds a little moisture into areas just SE of our hoods , for now. Would love to see upcoming model runs to bring that moisture more NW tues night into Wednesday

BG mentioned in a tweet this morning that depending on the track, more moisture and maybe even an isolated tornado could be possible for at least SKY.

StormTalk! https://www.wave3.com/2021/06/28/goode- ... -blog-628/

Good rain chances coming per the 12Z GFS Wed and Thurs then the front passes but a low develops and moves along the front for Sat so rain is likely since the low moves right thru NKY with the upper low back to the west.. Not a good look for pyro's at all if this solution is correct. Still plenty of time to track this system.

88 as of 1pm at CVG so a contest day is looking fairly likely at this point.

In the intra-day obs, looks like CVG did touch 90 before the thunderstorm outflow moved in. Will have to check the 5pm report of course to be official. Pretty decent storm coverage far east in the Route 23 corridor from Chillicothe to Lucasville.

It's been dark here a few times, but as usual, The Dome has held steady.

12z Euro drives the front thru like most models and the upper low is just East of us so the Western 1/2 of the area is fine, shower risk Eastern 1/2 for Saturday.