June 2021 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

Perhaps the northern part of the line gets that far east. I am still highly suspect on the southern end of that risk area.

[tron777]

I am watching that line of storms on the southern end which is currently located well SE now of STL and into Southern ILL. How far east can that make it before weakening is the question for us this afternoon. My call has been that it dies out. We shall see.

[tron777]

12Z Euro looking good to me keeping most folks dry until next week. Then everyone stands the daily risk of pop up storms each afternoon and evening due to daytime heating. Thurs and Fri still look like the wettest days to me. For the Holiday Weekend, the Euro on this run has the upper low west of us and the front thru the area on Sat so most would be dry minus S counties. Then the upper low comes thru on Sunday the 4th for PM t-storm development.

[tron777]

So far, radar trends are showing that line I mentioned earlier weakening in ILL. So far so good on the call for today.

[young pup]

Barely had a pavement wetter here earlier. Just north of me in Upper Arlington it was a little better. Almost got under the trees wet. Out west of me in Hilliard, they got 2 decent rounds. I even saw puddles out there.

[MVWxObserver]

Nothing here in Greenville today.

Currently 77 here

[MVWxObserver]

* Primary threats include...

Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

A tornado or two possible

[MVWxObserver]

40% chance of issuance ...

[tron777]

82 here today thanks to the clouds. 83 at CVG. Tomorrow into early next week features a string of U80s to L90s across the area unless a spotty storm cools you off and / or cloud cover from the storms to our West keeps temps down, like we saw happen today. We'll see and we'll handle that on a day by day basis. One thing is for sure, the humidity is here to stay for a while.

[MVWxObserver]

* Primary threats include...

Isolated damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible

Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

A tornado or two possible

[Bgoney]

Didn't see much change overnight with forecast. Weekend still looks mainly dry for the region . Monday /tues 30 % chance of isolated showers. Late Wednesday into Thursday and beyond gives a much better chance for t-storms. I say beyond because the front could hang-up in our region for a time, just to early to know what will happen for the holiday weekend

[tron777]

Didn't see much change overnight with forecast. Weekend still looks mainly dry for the region . Monday /tues 30 % chance of isolated showers. Late Wednesday into Thursday and beyond gives a much better chance for t-storms. I say beyond because the front could hang-up in our region for a time, just to early to know what will happen for the holiday weekend

Totally agree... Friday also looking like high chances to me. Sat onwards for the holiday weekend as you said, is in doubt right now. Euro cuts the upper low off well to the west of us so continued rain chances while the GFS cuts it off over Ohio. Continued rain chances for most unless you're up by IND. We shall see! Bottom line for now is the warmth and humidity the next several days. We will absolutely be tacking on some contest days.

[young pup]

My brother spoke to our cousin out in Columbia Missouri, he is approaching 10 inches of rain in his backyard. I would say it is a bit wet out there. Heading south to your guys neck of the woods. Got a great nephew who has ball game this afternoon and then a festival afterwards. Hoping for a little bit of sun as the clouds have come back here already this morning.

[tron777]

77 at CVG already, 78 here with partly sunny skies and a breezy SW wind pumping in the warmth and humidity. Majority of the better cloud cover is north and west of Cincinnati at this time per visible satellite.

[MVWxObserver]

* Primary threats include...

A couple tornadoes possible

Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

Scattered large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible

[MVWxObserver]

Currently 81 here in G'ville and progged for around 85 later this afternoon.

[tron777]

Only 85 here today thanks to the lush green vegetation and clouds at times. 86 - CVG

[Bgoney]

Awesome day yesterday with the strong breeze. Another one today but not as gusty as yesterday and a bit warmer. Rest of week no changes , 30% chance of pop-up showers mon/tues, and starting Wednesday late , better chances of widespread rains to finish the week off .

[tron777]

Good Sunday morning to you all! The only thing that I have to add is this:

Temps look to come down towards the end of the week due to clouds / rain chances. Then IMHO, the temps look wonderful for the Holiday Weekend. I'm going with highs in the 70s! The question for rain chances.... where does the upper low cut off? Last run I saw of the GFS had it right over us which is No Bueno. The last Euro run I saw had it over New England which is Muy Bueno! We shall see!

Bgoney has things well in hand with his post this morning for the short and medium range periods, so just read that if you need a quick summary.

[MVWxObserver]

Awesome day yesterday with the strong breeze. Another one today but not as gusty as yesterday and a bit warmer. Rest of week no changes , 30% chance of pop-up showers mon/tues, and starting Wednesday late , better chances of widespread rains to finish the week off .

Yes that breeze yesterday really was a blessing. Felt great i.e. as my folks and I ate supper inside our van at the local Dairy Queen with the windows down.

[MVWxObserver]

Van Wert and Mercer counties look to get a bit of action in the next half hour.

[tpweather]

Good afternoon and made to SC yesterday. The humidity as always during the summer is horrible down here but temps are not bad at the moment. Lawn is looking great as much above normal rainfall once again in this area. The ridge in the northeast got stronger and a little further north than what I expected so my call for rain late Friday and early Saturday went down the tubes. Getting to 90 degrees will need to happen today-Tuesday. A rainier pattern for late in the week and if we can get the upper low out of here the 4th of July weekend could turn out great with some decent temps. The problem is those systems have a mind of their own. Only staying a week so will travel on the 4th and returning home for another extended period.

[tron777]

Speaking of the upper low, the GFS cuts it off near Chicago on Saturday. So if correct, a chance of showers would be in the forecast. Temps are going to be great in the 70s either way, but we need that low to be East of us to avoid the rain chances. I am pulling for the 0Z Euro run.

[tron777]

There are a couple of little pinhead showers out there scattered about. Good luck if you get one. They won't last long if you do and you'll probably get a ground wetter to raise your humidity even more. Coverage attm looks very isolated at best.

[tron777]

12Z Euro has the front coming thru on Friday with the upper low to our East on Sat so for the pyro's out there... if you're shooting it all off on 7/3 like me... you'll want the Euro solution to pan out. A small shower chance is there but not as bad as the GFS shows coverage wise. It's all going to boil down to the upper low and it's position. With the uncertainty of the speed of the front and upper low, I think keeping a chance for showers in the forecast attm is a good call. Plenty of time to keep our eyes on it and we can easily make changes in the days to come. Temps from all models look to be in the 70s whether it's raining or not so that'll be awesome as far as temps are concerned.

To Recap: Slim chances today. 20-30% coverage Monday, 30-40% Tuesday, then I like likely POPS now for Wed, Thurs, and Fri.