Absolute Vorticity

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Dec 18, 2021 1:56 pm Merry Torchmas from the 12Z Euro. Highs in the mid 60s Christmas Day at CVG. Ugh... The record is 66 from 1893. Yikes... Christmas Eve record is safe, 70 from 1964.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sat Dec 18, 2021 2:57 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Dec 18, 2021 1:56 pm Merry Torchmas from the 12Z Euro. Highs in the mid 60s Christmas Day at CVG. Ugh... The record is 66 from 1893. Yikes... Christmas Eve record is safe, 70 from 1964.

With DPs near 60 to the river and off the charts shear in the days just after the heat miser leaves our presents under the tree

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Dec 18, 2021 1:04 pm

young pup wrote: ↑Sat Dec 18, 2021 1:02 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Dec 18, 2021 12:24 pm 12Z OP GFS today has not much change to the overall look of the pattern until next year, but boy oh boy what a change it is showing to kick off next year! Finally... the Pacific changes (if correct) to a -EPO +PNA -NAO -AO pattern as arctic air invades the country including us. The trough retrogrades to the west over the Aleutians to NE of Hawaii which pumps up heights along the entire West Coast of North America and into Alaska. Over the top blocking is still present and very strong which means it should have some staying power. A classic Phase 8 MJO look if this is correct. Hopefully in about a weeks time we continue to see this look showing up on guidance to increase confidence more. For now, we watch and wait as usual. Until then mainly rain systems thru the end of the year showing up on this run.

Give it 12 hours and it will change.

6 hours then the Happy Hour GFS will be out.

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Sat Dec 18, 2021 1:11 pm

young pup wrote: ↑Sat Dec 18, 2021 1:01 pm

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Sat Dec 18, 2021 12:19 pm Have had an absolutely wonderful time with my sister, bil, niece, and nephew for a combo early Christmas celebration and my folks' 60th anniversary! Yesterday evening we all had a celebration for my folks at the Old Richmond Inn in Richmond, Indiana. First time to eat there and a great place to celebrate special occasions esp. I had a grilled pork chop w/ apricot glaze, some pea pods, twice-baked cheesy mashed potatoes, onion shoots, tossed salad, garlic crab meat stuffed mushrooms appetizer, a roll, and water.

Please say a little prayer for my nephew and sister, bil, and niece as they head home today. Nephew Jared is going to Nashville, TN where he just recently moved to a house earlier this week with 3 new friends, new to him at least, from his fiancee Madison "Madi's" church. His friends are Matthew, Mark, and John and so Jared has dubbed the place the Gospel House. Jared said they should get a dog and name him Luke. Somewhat later this afternoon my sister Retha, bil Mike, and niece Janae will start heading out to NC and they'll split up their trip staying overnight tonight in WV.

Currently 41 here in Greenville.

Congrats on your parents for 60 years of marriage. Hopefully a safe trip for all as I hate driving in this kind of weather.

Thank you very much, JP!

Yes, my nephew is kind of nervous and with the additional weather factor, makes it more tiresome. Esp in the big city bottlenecks like Cincy and LOU on his route.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sun Dec 19, 2021 10:42 am Cvg sitting at number 2 for the warmest Dec mean with 13 days left to get to number 1

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tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 19, 2021 1:55 pm Euro has a mild and wet Christmas to New Year's period. Will the MJO make it to 8 or keep it in 7 ? Too much -PNA.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sun Dec 19, 2021 2:22 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 19, 2021 1:55 pm Euro has a mild and wet Christmas to New Year's period. Will the MJO make it to 8 or keep it in 7 ? Too much -PNA.

I give it a 50/50 chance atm. looking at SSTs , with those cold anomalies at and near the dateline , you can't help but wonder once the MJO goes through 7 and reaches the pearly gates of 8 , once it reaches the cold waters it could fizzle out


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tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 19, 2021 4:00 pm Severe blocking does beat the ridge down completely if correct. Would like to see those features a bit more east (Aleutian ridge, would like it more into AK) But anyway, mixing risks like snow to rain or rain to snow. Ice too are all possible in January with this pattern. Force those features to the east a bit and I think a nice clipper pattern develops. That's what we need MJO phase 8 and it may stay in 7 longer though we'll see.


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airwolf76 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 19, 2021 10:25 pm dont buy into the hype of any significant changes at day 10 or 2weeks out. remember the MJo was suppose to favor us and go into a good phase 4 weeks back and never happened . im taking it 1 week at a time and this coming week is a snooze fest . i been saying last week of month though, but my half inch of snow for both Nov and Dec may actually stand at this point. one thing you can always watch is when you see it cold and snowy in the pacific northwest states, it will not be in your area. the NW has been getting an early winter for a while just like 2 years ago, this is a repeat. a better pattern was around the corner that never came, we have a 2019 redux.