Absolute Vorticity

12Z Euro only has spotty rain chances in the next week or so. The heat takes control esp by the end of next week.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Jul 29, 2022 2:37 pm Someone mention LaNina? This should put things in perspective to how the month of July has gone for LaNina





E6HP9aB.jpg
LOtn2cF.gif

Does it not look like it is becoming Modiki or Central Based to you? That looks like where the coldest anomalies are for the moment. So imagine for a second if going into this winter we have the following attributes in place:

3rd year La Nina - Modiki
+QBO
High solar activity
Below avg ACE for the tropics (For now anyway)


Just those 4 things alone is interesting. Gulf of Alaska has been warming so I wonder if we might get a +PDO which you usually don't see in Nina's. My brain is seeing lots of conflicting signals. Going to be hard at the moment to figure out what is going to be driving the bus this season. Also wonder how the AO and NAO will behave this year? Almost time to start keeping an eye on the PV strength again in a few weeks. Hope you have time for updates on that again this year once we get our Early Winter Thoughts thread going probably sometime next month.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 29, 2022 2:46 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Jul 29, 2022 2:37 pm Someone mention LaNina? This should put things in perspective to how the month of July has gone for LaNina





E6HP9aB.jpg
LOtn2cF.gif

Does it not look like it is becoming Modiki or Central Based to you? That looks like where the coldest anomalies are for the moment. So imagine for a second if going into this winter we have the following attributes in place:

3rd year La Nina - Modiki
+QBO
High solar activity
Below avg ACE for the tropics (For now anyway)


Just those 4 things alone is interesting. Gulf of Alaska has been warming so I wonder if we might get a +PDO which you usually don't see in Nina's. My brain is seeing lots of conflicting signals. Going to be hard at the moment to figure out what is going to be driving the bus this season. Also wonder how the AO and NAO will behave this year? Almost time to start keeping an eye on the PV strength again in a few weeks. Hope you have time for updates on that again this year once we get our Early Winter Thoughts thread going probably sometime next month.

Won't be long Les. I really don't like how strong LaNina is and where it will be at come November/December...... 6 weeks or so ago I was hoping for neutral/cool neutral, but the month of July uptick is making part of that unlikely, a good chance we stay in LaNina through those months

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Jul 29, 2022 3:03 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 29, 2022 2:46 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Jul 29, 2022 2:37 pm Someone mention LaNina? This should put things in perspective to how the month of July has gone for LaNina





E6HP9aB.jpg
LOtn2cF.gif

Does it not look like it is becoming Modiki or Central Based to you? That looks like where the coldest anomalies are for the moment. So imagine for a second if going into this winter we have the following attributes in place:

3rd year La Nina - Modiki
+QBO
High solar activity
Below avg ACE for the tropics (For now anyway)


Just those 4 things alone is interesting. Gulf of Alaska has been warming so I wonder if we might get a +PDO which you usually don't see in Nina's. My brain is seeing lots of conflicting signals. Going to be hard at the moment to figure out what is going to be driving the bus this season. Also wonder how the AO and NAO will behave this year? Almost time to start keeping an eye on the PV strength again in a few weeks. Hope you have time for updates on that again this year once we get our Early Winter Thoughts thread going probably sometime next month.

Won't be long Les. I really don't like how strong LaNina is and where it will be at come November/December...... 6 weeks or so ago I was hoping for neutral/cool neutral, but the month of July uptick is making part of that unlikely, a good chance we stay in LaNina through those months

The IOD is negative and keeps going negative and that is also a sign that this Nina is not going away quietly or quickly. SOI is not as strongly positive as it once was, but still very positive. 90 Day avg is still +13.65. Anything usually above +8 is indicative of a La Nina. (-8 would be for El Nino). You've posted several times about the 850 MB winds too being easterly, all contributing factors. We def have the same concern at this point going into the colder months. Luckily time is on our side. If the PDO Domain works out positively, wonder if that could trump the Nina's effects? Lots of fun to come.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 29, 2022 2:29 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Jul 29, 2022 1:53 pm Been an awesome monsoon season for the SWestern states and that will continue in the extended. Also plenty of moisture for the Canadian prairies and more to come there also.

Nice to see some drought areas getting that rain. Lake Meade needs a lot of help! I saw where there was some impressive flash flooding in Vegas too (I believe it was yesterday?)

I saw some footage from Rimrock, AZ via the Accuweather channel earlier today. Also the flooding in Vegas, too.

Mark Mancuso, formerly of TWC, is my top favorite met on the Accuweather channel.

https://www.whio.com/news/trending/kent ... ZZUVP7FUE/

Such a heartbreaking situation in eastern KY as now the death toll is up to 16. Prayers and thoughts with all those affected.

Currently 77 here in G'ville.

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Fri Jul 29, 2022 7:14 pm https://www.whio.com/news/trending/kent ... ZZUVP7FUE/

Such a heartbreaking situation in eastern KY as now the death toll is up to 16. Prayers and thoughts with all those affected.

Currently 77 here in G'ville.

I have a few relatives that still live down there and thankfully they are ok! They live in Virgie, KY which was one of many hard hit towns in that region.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 29, 2022 7:18 pm

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Fri Jul 29, 2022 7:14 pm https://www.whio.com/news/trending/kent ... ZZUVP7FUE/

Such a heartbreaking situation in eastern KY as now the death toll is up to 16. Prayers and thoughts with all those affected.

Currently 77 here in G'ville.

I have a few relatives that still live down there and thankfully they are ok! They live in Virgie, KY which was one of many hard hit towns in that region.

So thankful that they are okay, bro.

My folks and I have a couple of friends whom we've known over the years via Cincy and also Raleigh, NC who are natives of Hazard, KY.

18z GFS firing up the cvgland Dome for the next 7 days

Good Sat morning all! 62 here, 63 CVG but a lot of you north of the city have dropped into the 50s! Lucky dawgs! As we've said, no issues today. A risk of a shower Sun morning, otherwise we wait until Mon and Tues for better rain chances before the 90s flex again. As Bgoney has mentioned, the chances were looking pretty good but yesterday and last night, the guidance has backed off so only 30-50% coverage is really expected here on any one given day. Hopefully, we can get out of the 90s after next weekend and get back to some rain again.

I'd also like to wish Mike (Mfitz730) a very happy birthday today! Thanks again for assistance on putting on a great fireworks show! Can't wait for 2023!!! Enjoy your day, Mike!!

What a beauty of a day. 12z runs are trending with a bit more moisture into our area for tomorrow. I'm not buying it just yet with the airmass we have currently and the warm front staying south for most of tomorrow.

HAPPY 37TH BIRTHDAY MIKE!!

Enjoy your special day, Wxbuddy!

Widespread monsoonal rains continue with SoCal getting in on the action along with the Sierra's, keep it coming.

I have thoroughly enjoyed today! I hope you all did also. I'm going with what I posted earlier. 30-50% chance tomorrow thru Tues, then the heat.

That trend of moisture into the tri-state for this morning was no joke. A nice Blob of light to moderate rains , even hearing distant thunder atm. I'll take it!

I’m cautiously optimistic about our severe risk tomorrow evening/early overnight. Something to watch.

Good Morning and been off the blog for almost a week as I had a busy time outside the weather that I love to talk about. Wonderful morning with the light to moderate rain and temps in the mid 60's for the last day of July. Reading some of the posts it looks like the models were once again having problems in location of rainfall. I do laugh when I hear the folks who are mainly climate folks talk about the models show this and that 50 years down the road when the models can barely get past 50 hours and they have problems.

Short rant but the upcoming week looks rather nice for the first week of August. Do we see more rain on Monday and at the end of the week. Getting hot for an extended time will not be easy in the Ohio Valley in the next few weeks. The vegetation is getting lush locally but also in the Missouri Valley and Tn Valley. Nights are getting longer so heating during the day is getting shorter day by day. Yes we have some temps get in the upper 80's and low 90's but the main issue will be the dew points which will be higher than normal for early August because of the added vegetation around and really chances of rain near us.

So far I hear folks saying its been a hot summer and my response is every summer is hot but compared to normal this summer is probably about 2 degrees above normal with the highs more like 1 1/2 above and lows 2 1/2 above and that has been the trend for many years with the overnight lows being the main reason we are above normal. The main heat has been where precip has been well below normal and that is Texas and of course further west with the ongoing drought especially in California.

My lawn which I cut yesterday looks wonderful and though a few brown spots which happens every summer it looks great and will cut next weekend before a trip to SC.

Trevor wrote: ↑Sun Jul 31, 2022 8:03 am I’m cautiously optimistic about our severe risk tomorrow evening/early overnight. Something to watch.

Hey Trev and though in early August we tend not to have severe weather as it usually in the great lakes and northeast I believe you are on to something with the rather potent system that is coming from southern Canada. We see these in August and much of the time spend heading across the northern third of the country but with the recent rains and deeper than normal troughs in the Ohio Valley the chances are higher than normal.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 29, 2022 2:46 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Jul 29, 2022 2:37 pm Someone mention LaNina? This should put things in perspective to how the month of July has gone for LaNina





E6HP9aB.jpg
LOtn2cF.gif

Does it not look like it is becoming Modiki or Central Based to you? That looks like where the coldest anomalies are for the moment. So imagine for a second if going into this winter we have the following attributes in place:

3rd year La Nina - Modiki
+QBO
High solar activity
Below avg ACE for the tropics (For now anyway)


Just those 4 things alone is interesting. Gulf of Alaska has been warming so I wonder if we might get a +PDO which you usually don't see in Nina's. My brain is seeing lots of conflicting signals. Going to be hard at the moment to figure out what is going to be driving the bus this season. Also wonder how the AO and NAO will behave this year? Almost time to start keeping an eye on the PV strength again in a few weeks. Hope you have time for updates on that again this year once we get our Early Winter Thoughts thread going probably sometime next month.

Great Post. The one thing I keep hearing in the weather world is how cold it has been in the southern hemisphere this winter for them and that is a change over the past decade or so. Some thoughts are this will translate into a colder winter in the northern hemisphere. I have no ideal if those thoughts are correct but when I see a couple of well known met's who are on the opposite end when it comes to warm and cold bias I do start to pay more attention.

Good morning everyone! 0.48" for my total as this system is wrapping up this morning. Models busted terribly as everyone now knows. Of course, my call for POPS busted badly as well, but this is one of those positive busts like in winter where we see more snow then excepted.

For tomorrow, we have a marginal risk for severe wx to keep an eye on with our next chance for rain and storms. Concerning the 90s coming back, I agree with you on that Tim. I could see the low 90s certainly, but anything higher then 94 or 95 is unlikely.

I'd like to wish a very happy birthday to Mike (Cloudy72)! Enjoy your day Mike and hopefully your hood also cashed in this morning!

Happy birthday Mike!!

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 31, 2022 9:45 am Good morning everyone! 0.48" for my total as this system is wrapping up this morning. Models busted terribly as everyone now knows. Of course, my call for POPS busted badly as well, but this is one of those positive busts like in winter where we see more snow then excepted.

For tomorrow, we have a marginal risk for severe wx to keep an eye on with our next chance for rain and storms. Concerning the 90s coming back, I agree with you on that Tim. I could see the low 90s certainly, but anything higher then 94 or 95 is unlikely.

Good Morning Les and we have been on the same page concerning temps. There is no way we get above 95 with the added vegetation and higher dew points expected over the next few weeks. Models are always in the catch up phase when it comes to temps especially after a nice period of rainfall and rather widespread rainfall. Matter of fact I would be surprise if we get to 92 next week and maybe Wednesday we hit 90 but even that is not a slam dunk. Still waiting on the tropics to get going and they always do by mid-August but they have a lot of catching up to do if the rather high forecast of storms predicted by many experts. The tropics is my weakness and though I have been working of the forecasting part concerning tropical systems I have a long way to go in feeling any confidence.

Happy Birthday Mike. Wow the kids keep getting older lol as he turns 50. I am at the age that anyone under 50 is a kid to me. Hope you have a wonderful day and such enjoyment seeing your posts on here.