Absolute Vorticity

Posted: **Fri Dec 17, 2021 11:26 am**

12Z GFS coming in a touch colder now for Christmas Eve and showing light snow and rain for the area. Def a step in the right direction.

Posted: **Fri Dec 17, 2021 11:31 am**

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Dec 17, 2021 10:56 am Temps should make it to the mid 40's today but once the rain start expect a few degree drop so probably several hours of rain and temp in the 40-42 degree range.

Totally agree Tim! Nice post...

Posted: **Fri Dec 17, 2021 11:43 am**

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 17, 2021 11:26 am 12Z GFS coming in a touch colder now for Christmas Eve and showing light snow and rain for the area. Def a step in the right direction.

I agree Les. Does not look like any big systems but just some weaker systems going through the jet stream. Timing is key and if you get a shot of cold air and the next system is a little quicker you can pick up a little snow or if the cold comes in a tad faster then rain could change to snow. There will probably be a system or two over the last 2 weeks of Dec that we will need to look at and models have a much harder time with weaker systems. At least we should have something to track besides severe and warm weather.

Posted: **Fri Dec 17, 2021 11:45 am**

GFS still has a shot of rain on the 26th but it's not a cutter. Low is thru Central Ky. Still rain for us but some snow would be possible for I-70 Crew. Again... a step in the right direction. Paging Tim...

Posted: **Fri Dec 17, 2021 11:48 am**

Just for giggles at the moment.

Posted: **Fri Dec 17, 2021 11:48 am**

More action to come after that so as Tim said... some weaker systems, but this is also allowing the cold to potentially get more involved. A couple more tweaks and we all might have a smile on our faces, esp I-70 folks.

Posted: **Fri Dec 17, 2021 11:52 am**

young pup wrote: ↑Fri Dec 17, 2021 11:48 am Just for giggles at the moment.

Lots of time to go but the trends are def looking more positive esp in the longer term for January.

Posted: **Fri Dec 17, 2021 11:53 am**

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 17, 2021 11:52 am
young pup wrote: ↑Fri Dec 17, 2021 11:48 am Just for giggles at the moment.
Lots of time to go but the trends are def looking more positive esp in the longer term for January.

I agree. This is the first day I have actually sat watched the run come in for a long time. Normally just glance at them later in the day. Today's run has definitely peeked my interest so far.

Posted: **Fri Dec 17, 2021 12:23 pm**

young pup wrote: ↑Fri Dec 17, 2021 11:48 am Just for giggles at the moment.

Going to be out of town so I know it will happen lol

Posted: **Fri Dec 17, 2021 12:44 pm**

I'm watching the 12Z GEFS come in and I've gotta tell ya folks... that -NAO is very strong and perfectly placed over Greenland and Baffin Island. The EPO ridge is also very strong but still too far to the West so the -PNA is still in play. I am seeing these blocking features kicking in earlier too in about 2-3 days time. This maybe why models are slowly correcting a little colder for Christmas. Due to the -PNA I-70 Crew is favored over us for snow but we're not out of the game either. We have a lot of model watching to go on this. For the period between Christmas and New Year's, the GEFS shows the continued above pattern with the ridging in the EPO domain trying to push closer to AK but not quite there where we want it yet. Still a -PNA with ridging across the south. I don't see a stout ridge, it's flat so a lot of west to east moving systems with some cold air in play should the timing of as shortwave be correct. Kind of similar looking to today's OP GFS run. Nice to see a little support there.

As an extra added bonus... I found this one to share. As of 12/15 the Aussie MJO models have us in Phase 7 by 12/19 maybe 12/20 then as we approach the end of the year, we're already in Phase 8 and it stays in Phase 8 thru 1/14. IF Correct. IF... fun times are certainly ahead!

AussieMJO.png

Posted: **Fri Dec 17, 2021 12:58 pm**

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 17, 2021 12:44 pm I'm watching the 12Z GEFS come in and I've gotta tell ya folks... that -NAO is very strong and perfectly placed over Greenland and Baffin Island. The EPO ridge is also very strong but still too far to the West so the -PNA is still in play. I am seeing these blocking features kicking in earlier too in about 2-3 days time. This maybe why models are slowly correcting a little colder for Christmas. Due to the -PNA I-70 Crew is favored over us for snow but we're not out of the game either. We have a lot of model watching to go on this. For the period between Christmas and New Year's, the GEFS shows the continued above pattern with the ridging in the EPO domain trying to push closer to AK but not quite there where we want it yet. Still a -PNA with ridging across the south. I don't see a stout ridge, it's flat so a lot of west to east moving systems with some cold air in play should the timing of as shortwave be correct. Kind of similar looking to today's OP GFS run. Nice to see a little support there.

As an extra added bonus... I found this one to share. As of 12/15 the Aussie MJO models have us in Phase 7 by 12/19 maybe 12/20 then as we approach the end of the year, we're already in Phase 8 and it stays in Phase 8 thru 1/14. IF Correct. IF... fun times are certainly ahead!

AussieMJO.png

Les are you trying to give us an early Christmas Present. If so I am fine with that lol

Posted: **Fri Dec 17, 2021 1:03 pm**

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Dec 17, 2021 12:58 pm Les are you trying to give us an early Christmas Present. If so I am fine with that lol

Def some positives with the overnight guidance and so far with this afternoons guidance as well. We need to see it continue of course. But so far, we are heading in the right direction. No guarantees of course but we are looking better as time goes on. I am getting more excited for January though, I won't deny that.

The rest of December needs some work though for us to score there.

Posted: **Fri Dec 17, 2021 1:14 pm**

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 17, 2021 1:03 pm
tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Dec 17, 2021 12:58 pm Les are you trying to give us an early Christmas Present. If so I am fine with that lol
Def some positives with the overnight guidance and so far with this afternoons guidance as well. We need to see it continue of course. But so far, we are heading in the right direction. No guarantees of course but we are looking better as time goes on. I am getting more excited for January though, I won't deny that. The rest of December needs some work though for us to score there.

The good thing Les is for the most part this month we were not even on the playing field but for a brief moment when we had that one snow event. At least we should be on that playing field the next two weeks so at least we have a fighting chance. Do want to mention the mjo and it would be nice to head into phase 8. We talk about when the mjo goes into the Circle of Death which usually means the mjo is not the main driver. That can be true but usually whatever phase the mjo was in before it heads into the COD the pattern usually remains similar but not as intense. So if we would be in say Phase 6 and head towards the COD then most likely we will be in a milder period but if say it goes into the COD from phase 1 then more and likely a colder outlook.

Posted: **Fri Dec 17, 2021 1:22 pm**

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Dec 17, 2021 1:14 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 17, 2021 1:03 pm
tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Dec 17, 2021 12:58 pm Les are you trying to give us an early Christmas Present. If so I am fine with that lol
Def some positives with the overnight guidance and so far with this afternoons guidance as well. We need to see it continue of course. But so far, we are heading in the right direction. No guarantees of course but we are looking better as time goes on. I am getting more excited for January though, I won't deny that. The rest of December needs some work though for us to score there.
The good thing Les is for the most part this month we were not even on the playing field but for a brief moment when we had that one snow event. At least we should be on that playing field the next two weeks so at least we have a fighting chance. Do want to mention the mjo and it would be nice to head into phase 8. We talk about when the mjo goes into the Circle of Death which usually means the mjo is not the main driver. That can be true but usually whatever phase the mjo was in before it heads into the COD the pattern usually remains similar but not as intense. So if we would be in say Phase 6 and head towards the COD then most likely we will be in a milder period but if say it goes into the COD from phase 1 then more and likely a colder outlook.

Getting to Phase 8 is key. I wouldn't care if it went into the COD even at Phase 8. Ideally we would want it to go thru the tour of the cold phases, 8, 1, and 2 to have a better pattern for a longer period of time. Beggars can't be choosers as we both know. Agree with you on December. Snow chances are slowly going up. I am still going with low chances but it is not zero like it was looking the other day. I like how early to perhaps even mid January is beginning to shape up as well.

Posted: **Fri Dec 17, 2021 1:38 pm**

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 17, 2021 12:23 pm
young pup wrote: ↑Fri Dec 17, 2021 11:48 am Just for giggles at the moment.
Going to be out of town so I know it will happen lol

Posted: **Fri Dec 17, 2021 1:45 pm**

young pup wrote: ↑Fri Dec 17, 2021 1:38 pm
cloudy72 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 17, 2021 12:23 pm
young pup wrote: ↑Fri Dec 17, 2021 11:48 am Just for giggles at the moment.
Going to be out of town so I know it will happen lol

Something happens when I'm gone.

Severe wx or snow.

Posted: **Fri Dec 17, 2021 1:51 pm**

12Z Euro is not biting... still showing warmth for Christmas with a Cutter bringing us some light rain by the 25th. Euro was showing a lot of rain Christmas Eve in its past few runs. A few showers maybe but mainly just a lot of warmth as a strong low cuts up towards SD and MN. It has the -NAO so that isn't the problem. The Euro has a terrible Pacific. We've got an Aleutian Ridge so a mega -PNA and a strong SE ridge. So that just goes to show you that a -NAO isn't everything. It's good to have it don't get me wrong, but we need that AK ridge to be farther east. GFS and GEFS have it further East. Still not where we need it but it does leave parts of AV Land in the game for some light snow. If the ridge pokes up thru the Aleutians like the Euro has it on today's run then our goose will be cooked.

Posted: **Fri Dec 17, 2021 2:25 pm**

12Z GEPS also looking nice. A much improved Pacific with a more neutral looking PNA to close out Dec and kick off 2022. Has a nice trough from AK SE thru Canada and into the Lakes, OV and East Coast. So far, the OP GFS is improving today, GEFS and GEPS. OP Euro is not biting. Will see EPS shortly. One other issue is that the GFS has the MJO going thru Phase 7 faster then the Euro does. Based on the 850 zonal wind anomalies that Bgoney posted earlier, the Euro might be wrong with that idea. If it is... you'd think the EPS would disagree. We'll see!

Posted: **Fri Dec 17, 2021 2:27 pm**

Overall with the 12z suite there's really not much change in the 6-10 day range from yesterdays runs. After this coming weeks slightly above temps, a cold front for Christmas which brings us , hopefully, to near.normal for a few days, maybe some mood flakes possible if everything works out . It such a strong trough in the west all next week , that's tough to overcome

Posted: **Fri Dec 17, 2021 3:12 pm**

Thru Day 10, the 12z EPS has the deep western trough because of the EPO ridge being too far West. A nice -NAO. Ridging over the Southern tier. That is thru 12/27. Here's the 11-15 that takes us to NYD. A little better but the SE ridge is still there. I don't think storms will cut very hard due to the -NAO but a chance for them to cut near us is possible. Again, not a shutout pattern but we're not talking 50s and 60s either.

EPS.png

Posted: **Fri Dec 17, 2021 3:18 pm**

Looking like a wet evening and night ahead. Lotta rain headed our way and it's just moving in now. PM Rush is probably going to be messy as usual when it rains.

Posted: **Fri Dec 17, 2021 4:36 pm**

40 degrees here with light rain. 0.05" so far.

Posted: **Fri Dec 17, 2021 6:08 pm**

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 17, 2021 3:12 pm Thru Day 10, the 12z EPS has the deep western trough because of the EPO ridge being too far West. A nice -NAO. Ridging over the Southern tier. That is thru 12/27. Here's the 11-15 that takes us to NYD. A little better but the SE ridge is still there. I don't think storms will cut very hard due to the -NAO but a chance for them to cut near us is possible. Again, not a shutout pattern but we're not talking 50s and 60s either.

EPS.png

What I see Les on this image is the ridge near Alaska is just enough to slow down the pacific storms from pounding into the west coast and bringing tons of milder air. This tells me over the next two weeks temps will be just a few degrees shy of normal for the most part and if take in the averages starting on today and lasting through the 31st that it would be considered a normal late December pattern. Do we get snow and its possible and even with a great pattern sometimes we miss out but its much better than the pattern that delivered Tornado's and Decrecho in December

Posted: **Fri Dec 17, 2021 6:10 pm**

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Dec 17, 2021 6:08 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 17, 2021 3:12 pm Thru Day 10, the 12z EPS has the deep western trough because of the EPO ridge being too far West. A nice -NAO. Ridging over the Southern tier. That is thru 12/27. Here's the 11-15 that takes us to NYD. A little better but the SE ridge is still there. I don't think storms will cut very hard due to the -NAO but a chance for them to cut near us is possible. Again, not a shutout pattern but we're not talking 50s and 60s either.

EPS.png
What I see Les on this image is the ridge near Alaska is just enough to slow down the pacific storms from pounding into the west coast and bringing tons of milder air. This tells me over the next two weeks temps will be just a few degrees shy of normal for the most part and if take in the averages starting on today and lasting through the 31st that it would be considered a normal late December pattern. Do we get snow and its possible and even with a great pattern sometimes we miss out but its much better than the pattern that delivered Tornado's and Decrecho in December

Absolutely agree Tim. It will at least feel more like December even if we get rain vs snow. Beats 60s as you said.

Posted: **Fri Dec 17, 2021 6:20 pm**

Les if we can get the over the top block that will force the troughs to the south and we are in business. You can tell this is trying to happen and we just need a little luck.

Absolute Vorticity

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