tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 27, 2021 3:52 pm
I know many of you are OSU fans on here, but it's a great day for us Mich fans! We've waited 10 long agonizing years for a victory!
Back to the weather now and in the extended, models (including ensembles) have lost the colder look. Majorly +EPO. Not sure if this invest in the West Pac is screwing with the models, or is it real? They've been improving the pattern and have been showing cold (esp the Ensembles) for the last 3 or 4 days then all of a sudden yesterday and today, the extended range looks very ugly. If it does not change in a couple more days then it's probably real.
abpwsair.jpg
Out played and out coached. Michigan deserved that win.
Weather wise, even though radar shows precip in the area here. As SGT. Shultz would say, I See Nothing.
Thank you JP! I wouldn't say out coached because I have never been a huge Harbaugh fan anyway. His brother John, (Ravens head coach of course) IMO does a much better job then his brother Jim does. But maybe this is Michigan's year for a change. I'm watching the Wisc / MN game because we play Wisc next week if they win and Iowa if Wisc loses for the Big Ten championship.
]]
Ok, a better game plan?? I forgot about that game. I will switch over to it.
young pup wrote: ↑Sat Nov 27, 2021 6:23 pm
Also,turn on ABC and watch the snow bowl game between Mich. St. and Penn St.
Thanks for the heads up. Nothing like watching a snowy football game.
Proud owner of Best Guess Forecast Center (BGFC)
Former owner of Gut Feeling Forecast (GFF) and Doppler Infinity
I know just enough about weather to be dangerous!
Nome dropped to -21F (-29.4C) Saturday morning (not a daily record). This is earliest "first -20F" or lower temp in the winter since 1994 and the tenth earliest in the past 113 years
Proud owner of Best Guess Forecast Center (BGFC)
Former owner of Gut Feeling Forecast (GFF) and Doppler Infinity
I know just enough about weather to be dangerous!
Was something watching the snowy games, although the results sucked. Was cool watching snow here and at the games. Received 2.6 new inches so far this morning, for a monthly total of 12.7 inches(average for month 9.96 inches. More on the way today.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
2022/23 Winter snowfall 61 inches
Seasonal average 107-113 inches depending on source.
Chardon, Ohio
It's the GEFS so a huge grain of salt here (like with all MJO modeling forecasts) but the GEFS is back to showing the MJO on the move again with Phase 7 as we roll into the 2nd week of Dec. Euro has not updated since 11/25.
diagram_40days_forecast_GEFS_member.gif
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Proud owner of Best Guess Forecast Center (BGFC)
Former owner of Gut Feeling Forecast (GFF) and Doppler Infinity
I know just enough about weather to be dangerous!
MJO since beginning of September has been avoiding the PAC /Africa phases , not that it has mattered for our Met winter, but that it could be an evolution that's tough to break going into winter, like we've seen in the past
rmm.phase.Last90days.gif
Here we have 850 anomalies, notice they haven't changed much over the past 4-6 weeks , hence neither has the MJO in its overall progress and location. So until I see some anomaly changes , yea take the MJO forecast with a grain of rock salt
u.anom.30.5S-5N.gif
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Proud owner of Best Guess Forecast Center (BGFC)
Former owner of Gut Feeling Forecast (GFF) and Doppler Infinity
I know just enough about weather to be dangerous!
The Euro probably updated right after I made that post. Thanks Bgoney for posting that. IOD seems to be neutral this winter so the tropical Indian Ocean isn't supposed to have much influence in terms of tropical forcing either. There just isn't much going on attm to shake things up and change the overall pattern.
I checked the snow and ice coverage info and most of Canada has snow cover now which is good. We are finally seeing some ice form around the edges now of Hudson's Bay too. However, what is hurting is the well below avg snow cover (or lack thereof) over the Rockies and N Plains. Pretty pitiful really across the majority of the Lower 48 accept for the LES belts currently.
Couldn't have picked a worse day to put Christmas lights up. Temp was 38 with gusty winds and a wind chill of 28. LOL 95 % done with outside lights. Trying to warm up now.
tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 28, 2021 6:27 pm
Going to grind leaves one last time this week probably Thursday and Friday then be done for the season. Burn the rest.
Boy, I wish I could talk my clients into letting me pile their leaves and burn them on site. Getting closer to being done. Still a little ways to go.
tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 28, 2021 12:20 pm
A decent afternoon in progress for the Bengals / Steelers game at PBS. A bit breezy but otherwise plenty of sunshine and the 40s can be expected.
Great to see the Bengals continuing to keep their Wild Card hopes alive!
Currently 28 here in G'ville and progged for around 24 Mon morning.
Good morning.
Currently 22 degrees here.
We purchased our Frazier fir Christmas Tree this weekend.
Will be decorating the house inside and out this week.
tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 28, 2021 6:27 pm
Going to grind leaves one last time this week probably Thursday and Friday then be done for the season. Burn the rest.
Yeah we have one last check around the yard to gather any leftover leaves and trim any dead plants before winter hits. Was 22 here this AM.
21 here, 22 CVG this morning. Last cold day before we begin to mod. A nice week for decorating (small Wed rain chance) but otherwise good to go until probably Sunday for bigger rain chances.
Nice to have a cooler than normal fall(-2 degrees)
Lower 48 finishes the monthly trend with nearly every state(Fl/WA) below normal precip do to no big storm systems
PRISM_ppt_early_4kmD2_anomaly_MTD_20211129.png
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Proud owner of Best Guess Forecast Center (BGFC)
Former owner of Gut Feeling Forecast (GFF) and Doppler Infinity
I know just enough about weather to be dangerous!
The dryness has surprised me more then anything for November. Kind of had an idea of it not being very warm but the lack of precip... yeah, I was not expecting that.
tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 30, 2021 7:20 am
The dryness has surprised me more then anything for November. Kind of had an idea of it not being very warm but the lack of precip... yeah, I was not expecting that.
Good Morning and I agree. You can see the STJ remained well south with only southern Texas and Florida able to get some decent rains. Seeing the amount of sunny but cool to cold days in November is something that is not seen very often. Will Mother Nature flip the switch to a stormier pattern in Dec and that looks to be the case. Biggest losers in November the ski resorts in the Rockies where they usually get a nice supply of snow and cold in November and that really had to hurt the resorts. On to December.
