Absolute Vorticity

Posted: **Mon Jan 24, 2022 11:20 am**

12Z GFS continues to trend west and gets the phasing going earlier with each run. This is not going to be a big system for us, more so for the Carolinas up into New England but hoping to see that trend continue to get more moisture pulled up with the front as the system is developing on Friday. That is going to be our best chance to receive anything out of this one.

Posted: **Mon Jan 24, 2022 11:45 am**

Going to be tough for this to move much further west with those highs

gfs_mslpa_us_fh90-144.gif

Posted: **Mon Jan 24, 2022 11:53 am**

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Jan 24, 2022 11:45 am Going to be tough for this to move much further west with those highs

gfs_mslpa_us_fh90-144.gif

If the phase can happen a bit earlier that will help. Also in that animation, that little kicker wave dropping in behind it, if it could slow down a bit that would also help. It's the only factors I can see to bring it more west. The phasing needs to be faster or we'll just get clipped with some light snow ahead of the cold front. That is currently all I am expecting anyway unless something changes.

Posted: **Mon Jan 24, 2022 12:50 pm**

British model has some light snow shower activity Thurs night and Friday. Right now, this is looking like another one of those scrap jobs. If the pattern wasn't so bad, I wouldn't even really care much about this system.

Posted: **Mon Jan 24, 2022 12:58 pm**

(24 Jan 2022) GDPS and RDPS maps may be delayed or missing due to data flow problems at Environment Canada.

Posted: **Mon Jan 24, 2022 1:17 pm**

got a half inch from last nights clipper with another round coming late tonight, not expecting much. perhaps another heavy dusting with the possibility of high end being up to 1 inch or so.

Posted: **Mon Jan 24, 2022 1:27 pm**

12Z Euro is well east of most guidance this afternoon for Friday so cold a few flakes and not much else to be had.

Posted: **Mon Jan 24, 2022 1:28 pm**

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 24, 2022 1:17 pm got a half inch from last nights clipper with another round coming late tonight, not expecting much. perhaps another heavy dusting with the possibility of high end being up to 1 inch or so.

Keep your eyes open for Fri / Sat.

Posted: **Mon Jan 24, 2022 1:37 pm**

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 24, 2022 12:50 pm British model has some light snow shower activity Thurs night and Friday. Right now, this is looking like another one of those scrap jobs. If the pattern wasn't so bad, I wouldn't even really care much about this system.

You know it's been a tough winter for snow when we're reporting in dustings and tracking dustings.

At least it's finally felt like Winter, unlike the Fall feel back in December.

Posted: **Mon Jan 24, 2022 1:39 pm**

westharrisonwx wrote: ↑Mon Jan 24, 2022 1:37 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 24, 2022 12:50 pm British model has some light snow shower activity Thurs night and Friday. Right now, this is looking like another one of those scrap jobs. If the pattern wasn't so bad, I wouldn't even really care much about this system.
You know it's been a tough winter for snow when we're reporting in dustings and tracking dustings.

At least it's finally felt like Winter, unlike the Fall feel back in December.

Yeah. It's all we can do., Feb should have some warmth injected into the pattern so we're playing with rain to snow and snow to rain type systems. But you can get a big dog if the timing works out. Timing is always the part of the equation that we don't do well on here lol

Posted: **Mon Jan 24, 2022 2:12 pm**

Check out the Arctic hurricane, what that must be like! Saw reports where it may have reached 932mb, has to be close to a record as I have never seen one that strong that far north

gfs_z500_mslp_nhem_2.png

Posted: **Mon Jan 24, 2022 2:19 pm**

I would love to be under that for about 2 mins just to see what it's like. It would probably be the longest 2 mins of my life.

Posted: **Mon Jan 24, 2022 3:31 pm**

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 24, 2022 9:12 am
Trevor wrote: ↑Mon Jan 24, 2022 8:57 am
tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 24, 2022 7:23 am I see one more shot at light snow for January and that will be a possible system for Thurs night and Friday, the 27-28th. With this system, can we see any interaction before the East Coast low takes over? CMC has a partial phase. GFS and Euro are trying. They all three generate a little QPF over the region. Of course, the earlier the phase the better for us, but one to watch. This storm was supposed to stay offshore. Now looking like a legit big deal for the Interior New England folks and maybe I-95, depends on track. Further west the better for our snow prospects in the OV of course.
I bet the NYC/New England weenies on AmericanWX are already freaking out
And the Mid ATL Weens too.

How much for Philly?

Posted: **Mon Jan 24, 2022 3:39 pm**

Good Afternoon and a blah January day to say the least. Part of the reason we are not seeing much in the way of snow this season is the southwest ridging that has been around much of the winter except in December when the southeast ridge was so strong because of activity in northeast South America. The southwest ridge has made it tough not only for us but the central plains to get much in the way of snow this winter. Plenty of cold around this month but getting the STJ in gear quick enough has not happened much. Hopefully by next week we see a change to this but of course warmer air will be involved but I am fine with that only to see something besides the boring pattern we are in this winter. So with the decent cold shots but the STJ getting involved to late for us has provided the Carolina's we some decent winter weather.

Posted: **Mon Jan 24, 2022 3:42 pm**

Euro with a 954 mb low off the coast of Beantown on the 29th.....yowzas!! Better stock up on some clam chowdaaah!

Posted: **Mon Jan 24, 2022 3:47 pm**

Trevor wrote: ↑Mon Jan 24, 2022 3:31 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 24, 2022 9:12 am
Trevor wrote: ↑Mon Jan 24, 2022 8:57 am
tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 24, 2022 7:23 am I see one more shot at light snow for January and that will be a possible system for Thurs night and Friday, the 27-28th. With this system, can we see any interaction before the East Coast low takes over? CMC has a partial phase. GFS and Euro are trying. They all three generate a little QPF over the region. Of course, the earlier the phase the better for us, but one to watch. This storm was supposed to stay offshore. Now looking like a legit big deal for the Interior New England folks and maybe I-95, depends on track. Further west the better for our snow prospects in the OV of course.
I bet the NYC/New England weenies on AmericanWX are already freaking out
And the Mid ATL Weens too.
How much for Philly?

I'm about ready to turn that into, how much for CVG.

Posted: **Mon Jan 24, 2022 3:49 pm**

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 24, 2022 3:42 pm Euro with a 954 mb low off the coast of Beantown on the 29th.....yowzas!! Better stock up on some clam chowdaaah!

EPS looks to be west of the OP in terms of low position with that system.

Posted: **Mon Jan 24, 2022 3:50 pm**

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Jan 24, 2022 3:39 pm Good Afternoon and a blah January day to say the least. Part of the reason we are not seeing much in the way of snow this season is the southwest ridging that has been around much of the winter except in December when the southeast ridge was so strong because of activity in northeast South America. The southwest ridge has made it tough not only for us but the central plains to get much in the way of snow this winter. Plenty of cold around this month but getting the STJ in gear quick enough has not happened much. Hopefully by next week we see a change to this but of course warmer air will be involved but I am fine with that only to see something besides the boring pattern we are in this winter. So with the decent cold shots but the STJ getting involved to late for us has provided the Carolina's we some decent winter weather.

Carolinas might get their third one of the season towards the end of the week. You should have stayed in Greenville all winter Tim.

Posted: **Mon Jan 24, 2022 3:54 pm**

12Z Team Canada is more interesting on Friday, look at this. Images valid for Fri morning and Fri night.

CMC1.png

CMC2.png

Posted: **Mon Jan 24, 2022 4:11 pm**

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 24, 2022 1:39 pm
Yeah. It's all we can do., Feb should have some warmth injected into the pattern so we're playing with rain to snow and snow to rain type systems. But you can get a big dog if the timing works out. Timing is always the part of the equation that we don't do well on here lol

So cold rain. Gotya.

Posted: **Mon Jan 24, 2022 5:03 pm**

CVG actually hit 40 today per the 5pm climo report.

Also tack on another 0.1" snow

Posted: **Mon Jan 24, 2022 5:15 pm**

I hit 40 today too.

Posted: **Mon Jan 24, 2022 5:15 pm**

MJSun wrote: ↑Mon Jan 24, 2022 4:11 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 24, 2022 1:39 pm
Yeah. It's all we can do., Feb should have some warmth injected into the pattern so we're playing with rain to snow and snow to rain type systems. But you can get a big dog if the timing works out. Timing is always the part of the equation that we don't do well on here lol
So cold rain. Gotya.

Sometimes it will be yes.

Posted: **Mon Jan 24, 2022 5:19 pm**

18Z GFS was back to the way late phase again for Friday's system.

Posted: **Mon Jan 24, 2022 5:57 pm**

Currently IND and ILN are projecting around 0 for early Wed morning and topping out in the mid teens for both Anderson, IN and Greenville! Of all days temp-wise to take care of some business with an aunt in Anderson.

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