Absolute Vorticity

Ground wetter here.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 29, 2021 8:59 am

young pup wrote: ↑Thu Jul 29, 2021 8:41 am Got a rain delay up here. Nothing major just enough for it to be an issue, it's just a light rain atm.

The first MCS def held on to produce some rain for you. Will that screw your chances for later on? That's the question. Visible sat isn't looking good right now for anyone in AV Country.

It's gotten a little more moderate atm. I just need a few hours of dry time and I will be done mowing. Then hit the road tonight for a week of beer and beach time.

So 0.01” here - my 12 day dry spell is over!! LOL

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 29, 2021 8:57 am

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 29, 2021 8:44 am Need to get this pesky sprinkle light rain stuff out of here so we can destabilize later. My fear is the HRRR is locked into higher instability to our west and little to no storms here

The gap BG mentioned in his video is a real possibility.

Yea that gapping as we all know is a common occurrence for our area and has been advertised by the model chaos back and forth the last couple days. ATM I would say the I-70 crew is in the higher probability screw zone along with cincys northern counties. Counties bordering the river have the best chance for storms, emphasizing chance

Skies a bit brighter here right now but still fairly overcast. CAPE is around a thousand J/kg last time I checked.

Total is actually 0.02” in my hood - so should be good for the next week and a half dry spell yes?

Convective temp per the 12Z ILN sounding is 84 degrees for today.

Good Afternoon. Went out towards Les's neighborhood today and what a difference in the lawns. Could see some brown where the lawns have been cut and at my house just green and lush. Brian's video was great as usual and we talk about the split this morning. This can end up being good as the cloud cover with the morning rains either pushed off more to the east or southwest towards Illinois. The gap could be a place where more in the way of sunshine this afternoon and this could help in getting storms to fire near us. Yes storms like to head towards the heat but if we get that hazy sunshine this could really help. I believe north of I-70 may be tough but we will see and different models will show different ideals. The one thing for sure is after today we have about a 5-7 period of temps below normal and lovely humidity. May even stay in the 70's a day or two and could we see a 56 or 57 at night and sure that is possible as well for a night or two.

83 CVG, 84 here right now with some sunshine finally heating things up. Yes Tim... mine is one of those with green and brown patches. Day 12 now with no rain in progress.

Update from the boys:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MCS has weakened substantially this morning and is primarily
east of I-71 as of 14z. There is still some convection that will
cross through Delaware and Licking counties associated with an
MCV that has formed in the northern tier of this system.
Elsewhere, just a few light showers are possible, mainly east of
I-71 this morning. Have trended PoPs lower in our west-central
Ohio and Miami Valley counties this morning with this
precipitation pushing eastward.

Visible satellite imagery shows a clear sector beginning to form
in portions of NE Indiana into NW Ohio behind this system. Most
locations west of I-71 will begin to observe more breaks in the
clouds this morning which will help increase insolation and
total amount of destabilization. With the lull in precipitation,
the best instability looks to be in our western counties down
into the Tri-state area. SREF ensemble mean still has around
3000 J/kg of MLCAPE developing this afternoon closer towards the
Cincinnati metro. While CAMs are in moderate disagreement
(between each other and consecutive runs of the same model) in
the evolution and location of afternoon storms, there does
appear to be a more prominent signal for the strongest
convection developing in portions of Illinois/Indiana which will
sink southward and impact portions of our southwestern counties
later this afternoon. The timeframe of greatest concern is
currently from about 4pm-9pm for our western counties down into
the Tri-state area. The primary threat is still for damaging
winds and large hail with localized flooding possible due to the
heavy downpours. While our environment isn`t the most favorable
for tornadoes, there are still a number of parameters
advantageous for tornadogenesis, and therefore cannot rule out
an isolated tornado forming during the storms this
afternoon/evening. For our remaining eastern locations, there
appears to be greater uncertainty with the development and
organization of storms. Expecting there to be isolated to
scattered storms that begin firing off again around 18z if not
slightly earlier, with PoPs diminishing from north to south
beginning in the late afternoon/early evening. The primary
severe threat looks to end by the late evening hours, but there
still may be a few storms that linger until about midnight.

Wow... the sun is doing its thing now. CAPE values of 4000 now in central IN. Supercell Comp index is 12 there, and 8 for I-70 Crew. Shear is a little too far away yet for storm development. DCAPE approaching 900 now in the Metro.

Lapse rates are poor, much steeper to our SW. Would like to see that over us and some shear and then let the chips fall where they may. Those are the 2 limiting factors I see currently at the midday point in the day.

Early this morning had a brief ground wetter with a clap of thunder or two.

Currently at 86 with a DP of 72 here in Greenville.

87 for the high at CVG thus far today... If we don't see something popping by 4 or 5pm, it ain't happening folks.

----

Looks like Airwolf (Charles) is in that watch zone or near it there in eastern PA.

* Primary threats include...

A couple tornadoes possible

Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely

Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

60% chance of issuance.

It's tryin' lol I hope that gap can fill in more.

88 now at CVG, will we fall short like yesterday or not? Last chance in July for a contest day.

T-storm Watch until 10pm - Let's get it on!

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0403.html

A couple of nasty looking cells look to be rocking CMH here shortly.

60% chance of issuance.

Need to see it fill in more over IN for CVG Land to get a better shot. It would help out Dayton too.

1” diameter hail in downtown Columbus

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 29, 2021 3:34 pm Need to see it fill in more over IN for CVG Land to get a better shot. It would help out Dayton too.

Not holding my breath