July 2021 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

Is 87 it for today?

[tron777]

12Z Euro is dry at CVG thru Day 10, other then the scattered chance on Thurs. The good news... cooler and less humid.

[cloudy72]

Is 87 it for today?

I thought I saw an 88 in there - still short of the contest though!

[tron777]

Is 87 it for today?

I thought I saw an 88 in there - still short of the contest though!

88 now yep...

[cloudy72]

The 18z HRRR offers hope for tomorrow's storm activity.

[tron777]

The 18z HRRR offers hope for tomorrow's storm activity.

DCAPE values almost at 1100 too, interesting for wind potential.

[tpweather]

The 18z HRRR offers hope for tomorrow's storm activity.

That model has been better than other shorter term models this summer so hopefully that is a good sign. 6-9 pm looks like a good time to see storms in our area and though it may not rain for a long period it should rain hard while its raining. That could promote runoff for some folks who have the drier ground.

[young pup]

We'll see if any severe wx can occur Thurs and Thurs night. By this evening, a derecho will be forming over MN tracking SE bound. A slight risk of severe wx for another MCS is in effect for folks N and E of Cincy with a marginal risk elsewhere for Thursday. Otherwise, if that fails, it's gonna be a while for rain. That cooler and drier talk is panning out IMO.

Don't need no derecho. Supposed to be leaving for a week tomorrow night. Working as last as possible today to try to get tomorrows work done just in case. I like the dryer and cooler talk that you mention. Have a great everyone. Stay cool.

Some areas may get a line of strong winds but pinpointing where is tough right now. I have been favoring CMH area the most in my thoughts since yesterday so we'll have to wait and see what kind of boundary the first round lays out (to our NW) that occurs tonight.

Thanks. I am just now reading the posts so I will look for further updates.

[tron777]

88 so far today at CVG so unless something changes, no contest day thanks to clouds / blow off from storms to the NW. SPC has a slight risk out now for all of AV Country for tomorrow. We shall see...

[tron777]

Excellent AFD from the boys in what to watch for tonight thru tomorrow night:


The primary focus of the forecast will be on a strong MCS that
develops tonight up in the Wisconsin area along a stationary
front. Most CAMs and global models resolve a strong line of
storms that form into a bowing segment overnight, favoring
widespread damaging winds further northwest across portions of
Wisconsin/Illinois. A potent LLJ of 40-50 kts and extreme
instability (MLCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg) will help in the
overall strength and maintenance of this complex overnight. The
challenge then becomes on how this MCS will evolve during the
early morning hours as it approaches our northwestern CWA -
generally around the 10z-12z timeframe. Models are very
consistent in showing a weakening trend of this storm complex as
it exits the higher region of instability and stronger LLJ
winds further northwest where the moderate risk for severe
weather exists. However, CAMs have a history of misrepresenting
the longevity and strength of mesoscale organization from these
larger storm complexes, making it challenging to only rely on
model interpretation with the potential strength of this system.
While a weakening trend is likely, the extent of the weakening
trend has very high uncertainty, so the messaging will stay the
same in relaying the potential for strong to severe wind gusts
early Thursday morning - especially for our west-central Ohio
counties.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
The storm complex will continue to track southeast Thursday
morning through the majority of our counties, with the highest
uncertainty further southwest near the Tri-state where some
locations could remain dry. Keep in mind however the evolution
of this system still remains the biggest question, so the
forecast may change for the Tri-state locations Thursday morning
if the complex holds itself together. There will be a large
amount of MLCAPE (1000-1500 J/kg) Thursday morning for this
complex to work with. SREF plumes increase mean MLCAPE values
rapidly into the 3000-3500 J/kg range by 18z Thursday - highlighting
the extreme instability as hot and humid air at the surface is
overlaid by cooler air aloft from an H5 s/wv trough moving
through.

After the MCS rolls through Thursday morning, the uncertainty in
its evolution makes for an even more challenging
afternoon/evening forecast across the CWA. A stronger morning
complex may hinder the strength of additional storms later in
the afternoon by limiting the overall amount of surface heating
and thus instability present if more debris clouds exist.
Additionally, there is some concern in our southern counties
along and south of the Ohio River where heat indicies will be
approaching 100 degrees, with a few spots potentially increasing
to just over 100 degrees. While these conditions would
typically warrant a heat advisory, decided to hold off for now
and just keep a mention of extreme heat in the HWO as the
evaluation of the morning storms will impact the amount of
daytime insolation.

Scattered to numerous storms become possible again by Thursday
afternoon ahead of a cold frontal boundary sinking from the
north. While strong winds and large hail remain the primary
threats, there does appear to be enough speed and directional
shear to favor supercells that could spawn a tornado or two.
Thus, have added a mention of a possible tornado in the HWO,
which would primarily be for Thursday afternoon and evening.
Chances for showers and storms will diminish from north to south
Thursday evening as the cold front slides through. The overall
severe threat will likely diminish by midnight, leaving only a
few stray showers in our far southern counties overnight before
we completely dry out.

[Bgoney]

I'm in the not expecting much from the early morning cluster camp, I kind of hope it dies out sooner rather than linger with strat morning rain so we can heat up and destabilize

For the afternoon and evening possible scattered cluster the models are all over the place and useless at this point. That will be a Nowcast . As has been mentioned some will get skipped while some do OK.
First week of August will be amazing temp wise, lows in 50s highs upper 70s/80ish, low DPs, in what is normally one of the hottest periods we have

[cloudy72]

A rare PDS Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued for that soon to be derecho in Wisconsin.

[MVWxObserver]

Prayerfully will get some substantial rainfall tomorrow.

Only had a tenth of an inch last weekend.

[MVWxObserver]

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

* Primary threats include...

Widespread damaging winds expected with scattered significant gusts to 90 mph likely

Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible

A tornado or two possible

[tpweather]

Good morning and a weather alert day as they say in the weather world. Nice complex this morning should die off before getting here though folks towards I-70 may get a little bit of rain from the dying complex. Then we wait and see how quickly the atmosphere ramps up and how much sun and when the sun comes out to get the next round started. Probably be near I-70 around 4pm or so and then the complex heads south. You may see the complex trying to head for the heat source so a northeast to southwest push is possible when the complex gets going and finally it will probably move straight south before it weakens late tonight. Nowcast is very important to day and we know heavy rain and strong winds but even a tornado is possible these tend to be a cell on its own which may be tough to find.

[Bgoney]

Yep , Nowcast mode is turned on. Models are useless for the afternoon and evening cluster with nearly each model showing a different solution and screw-zone, and there will be a definite screw-zone . HRRR especially clueless with different solutions each hour

[tron777]

Good morning! The derecho formed to our NW as expected. I think most of us are on the same page with our thinking. We'll need to see how much debris clouds / rain pushes in this morning and where that leftover boundary is for this afternoon and evening's convection. How much CAPE do we get and where does the better wind shear line up with it? Those are the questions our brains will be answering later today. If we don't score with this system, that may be it once again for a while.

[tron777]

NAM hammers us this evening with a big line dropping in. GFS looks decent too. Meanwhile, the Euro has not much of nothing for anybody. HRRR has the convection blowing up just to our west and missing us. So yeah... don't use the models, you'll get burnt.

[tron777]

The boys with their latest thinking:

MCS diving across the western Great Lakes will continue to be
more robust on the western edge of where instability is greater.
Weaker eastern portion will move into northern counties early
this morning and will likely dissipate as the entire complex
weakens.

Quite a bit of uncertainty with additional convective develop
will evolve later today. Even though there could be substantial
left over cloud cover, that should decrease some by this
afternoon. That would allow further destabilization, although
greater instability will be just to the west of the area. What
seems more probable is that storms will develop along the
remnant boundary from the morning activity. This will then push
south through the rest of the day with greater coverage in
western counties where instability will be higher. There is
plenty of shear which will allow storms to become strong to
possibly severe. Damaging winds are the primary threat.

There is also the potential for some showers and thunderstorms
to develop along a pre-frontal trough late in the day. This
chance would be in areas that are less affected by new
development on the old outflow boundary.

Effects from decaying complex will keep temperatures in the
northern counties in the mid to upper 80s. But near and south of
the Ohio River readings will reach the lower 90s with heat
indices in the upper 90s.

[tron777]

Hope to see the low clouds / fog mix out soon.

[tron777]

BG StormTalk! https://www.wave3.com/2021/07/29/goode- ... -blog-728/

[young pup]

Got a rain delay up here. Nothing major just enough for it to be an issue, it's just a light rain atm.

[cloudy72]

Need to get this pesky sprinkle light rain stuff out of here so we can destabilize later. My fear is the HRRR is locked into higher instability to our west and little to no storms here

[tron777]

Need to get this pesky sprinkle light rain stuff out of here so we can destabilize later. My fear is the HRRR is locked into higher instability to our west and little to no storms here

The gap BG mentioned in his video is a real possibility.

[tron777]

Got a rain delay up here. Nothing major just enough for it to be an issue, it's just a light rain atm.

The first MCS def held on to produce some rain for you. Will that screw your chances for later on? That's the question. Visible sat isn't looking good right now for anyone in AV Country.