Absolute Vorticity

Love that pic, Jeff! Awesome! Good morning folks! Just a trace recorded at CVG for snow so nothing to report for the contest. Visible satellite shows some dry air trying to punch in from the north to clear us out later this afternoon. Highs in the 30s today with wind chills in the 20s. Clear skies tonight with lows in the upper teens to lower 20s. Then a nice day tomorrow with highs in the low to mid 40s. For the Big Game Sun night, we sill start around 40 and drop into the 30s for the game. Conditions will remain dry for tailgaters too!

We track the next rain maker on MLK ending early Tues morning. Most of Tues and Wed are dry. Mild too with temps back into the 50s next week. Then we watch the bigger system on Wed night and Thurs. I am still expecting mainly rain and even some t-storms possible then ending as some flakes. Again, much like the system we just had as far as the track goes with the low close to us.

Next system moves in by Sunday and Monday Jan. 22-23rd and that one may have a more wintry look to it depending on track. OP GFS keeps it mainly rain as the gradient pattern that I talked about gets established. Foreign models have us more into the cold air so a better wintry shot per the CMC and Euro. GEFS has more of a -PNA and SE Ridge due to the PNA ridge being too far offshore. That is a risk with this upcoming pattern. EPS looks better as it has the ridge a little closer to the Coast. We'll see folks, we'll just have to wait and see.

As of 1/12/23, per the Aussies... MJO is in the COD but close to maybe coming out in Phase 8? We'll need to keep an eye on that. Modeling has been awful for the MJO this winter so we'll just have to keep an eye on it with real time observations. Teleconnection forecasts this morning show the PNA spiking around the 22-23rd so maybe that is our time to cash in? Then it falls towards neutral. AO and NAO also look to head more towards the neutral range as well. Things are a movin' and a shakin' out there so a lot of uncertainty in the extended range for sure. Probably more so then usual.

tpweather wrote: ↑Sat Jan 14, 2023 10:48 am Love the pics of snow. Will we see this locally in the next 2 weeks and my guess is yes. Waiting for the afternoon runs and hopefully they will end up like I see the pattern playing out. Sometimes hard to describe a pattern you see when the models are not on the same page. Either I will be wrong or they will start to head in my direction. Next week looks rather easy though as we see more systems come across the country but they will drop down some snow with the first system in the northern plains,second system in the central plans and upper mid-west and the third will that be the Ohio Valley. I believe so but not sure models are going to show that this early. The operational models tend to catch on the latest to a pattern change which makes sense but hopefully since we are really at the start of this change I would love to see some signs from the models. This kind of pattern reminds me of a late November/ early December pattern or least how that period was many years ago and in the past decade not as much. This pattern change once its complete should have a colder eastern half of the country while the west and yes Alaska will turn milder. Speaking of Alaska and very few true cold snaps for them this season though some places have had some nice snowfall.

Good morning Tim! Whatever we get in the extended range, we'll be getting a lot of it as the pattern is going to remain very active. We will be seeing 2-3 storm systems a week. We know mainly rain next week but after that... If the foreign models are correct, we should be in for some fun! My confidence is not high though per my above post.

Good Morning Les and yes a busy week. The first system I can see up to 1/2 of rain but the mid-week system that could produce some heavier rainfall and maybe over an inch. Of course mid-January when you get several weeks of rain the streams do fill up so folks who live near them are aware of this during the winter. Besides that no large area of snow to melt so that does keep us from any major flooding.

Les what we should see as well over the next few weeks is plenty of systems like you mentioned but they should be further apart with each system and this allows the colder air to head south and east. This is not a pattern change where we become cold and dry but one more seasonal at first but getting colder the further out in time you go. Then we start looking at the PV to see any disruption and again that is one that usually shows up on different models about a week before it gets under way and then you need time to see exactly where in the lower latitudes it may be going.

tpweather wrote: ↑Sat Jan 14, 2023 11:06 am Les what we should see as well over the next few weeks is plenty of systems like you mentioned but they should be further apart with each system and this allows the colder air to head south and east. This is not a pattern change where we become cold and dry but one more seasonal at first but getting colder the further out in time you go. Then we start looking at the PV to see any disruption and again that is one that usually shows up on different models about a week before it gets under way and then you need time to see exactly where in the lower latitudes it may be going.

I've been monitoring the PV too and thanks for mentioning that since I forgot too earlier. It is forecast to weaken in time but the impacts if this does occur are sill unknown and we probably wouldn't know until sometime in February with regards to that anyway. What also may help for the back half of winter is the weakening of the La Nina. SOI started falling on 1/9 and as of today, this marks the 3rd day in a row with a negative reading. If we can string together a couple of weeks worth of negative SOI readings then we can truly say that this Nina is finally on its way out. I saw some ENSO modeling the other day that was pretty bullish going with a 50% chance of an El Nino by summer. I don't think that this Nina will be collapsing that quickly plus there is a lag time too with regards to atmospheric impacts and behavior. Anyway, we'll see like usual what happens as time goes on.

I like Tim's thoughts also on rainfall amounts for the next 2 systems. Modeling is showing that well including the new 12Z OP GFS run here. The Jan 22-23rd system is one to watch to see how strong it gets and where it tracks. It is close to being a wintry event for us or at least nearby. We are typically on the fence a lot of times with these systems and thus far, that could be the case. We'll just have to wait and see what the pattern looks like as we get closer next week. CMC has went from showing a possible wintry system to a big cutter. Models are having trouble handling the Pacific and the troughing out West. They will continue to bounce around from the cutter look to the more wintry look with each run until we get closer. Again... the pattern I am envisioning is showing up on the models perfectly right now for the extended range. Are we on the wet side or the wintry side of the boundary remains to be seen. This type of pattern will keep us very active regardless of what precip types we see. This is more like a pattern we saw in 2007-2008. A lot of the 1990s winters too. Sometimes we're wet. Sometimes we're icy, and sometimes we're snowy or a combo of all 3! I think it's going to get interesting for sure as time goes on. Hang in there folks!

About 7 or 8 out of the 20 12Z GEFS Members show snow for us or very close to us for the 22-23rd period. That is a bit of an increase from yesterday when I looked. We shall see how that trend continues as we progress throughout the next week. This system is one of those keep that one eye open type of thing.

Happy Birthday Eric (MVWxObserver)! Enjoy your 60th Bro! Hope you have a great day and thanks for being a part of our weather family for all of these years!

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 14, 2023 12:50 pm Happy Birthday Eric (MVWxObserver)! Enjoy your 60th Bro! Hope you have a great day and thanks for being a part of our weather family for all of these years!

Happy Birthday Eric. I hope you and your family enjoy the 60th bday party.

12Z Euro has 0.25" of rain for CVG on MLK. Then the low for Thurs tracks just a bit to our NW thru IN with another third of an inch of rain. Could end as a few flakes. Then for next Sunday, the low cuts again right over us for rain ending as some flakes. Then there is another one after that by the end of the run that looks more promising for wintry weather. Busy times ahead... Hopefully, the progression of all of these systems will push the boundary further SE to get us more into the wintry side of things. No guarantee's as you know in weather but that is the idea that we are looking for anyway.

Thank you very much Les and Tim!! I love the AV forum community and its family-like atmosphere fellowship very much!!

Hard to believe 60 years already and I'm now in the same group as other "old timers" like Tim, Bgoney, Gina etc!

My folks and I had my birthday lunch at a Longhorn Steakhouse in north Dayton and I enjoyed filet mignon, baked potato, Caesar salad, bread, ice water and hot tea.

We'll be having a party here at the house at 3:30 or 4 o'clock complete with an ice cream sheet cake from Dairy Queen etc.

Currently 30 here in G'ville and progged to top out at around 33 later today.

Happy Birthday Eric. Enjoy your day.

young pup wrote: ↑Sat Jan 14, 2023 2:19 pm Happy Birthday Eric. Enjoy your day.

Thank you very much JP!

Sounds awesome Eric! I love Longhorn and ice cream cake is great too! Enjoy it Bro! For those who need their snow fix, here is a live webcam from Downtown Truckee, CA in the Sierra. I will be going to my Brother's here shortly and be back Sunday afternoon or evening.


http://tahoetopia.com/webcam/downtown-truckee

HB-E!!!

Happy birthday Eric!

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Sat Jan 14, 2023 2:21 pm

young pup wrote: ↑Sat Jan 14, 2023 2:19 pm Happy Birthday Eric. Enjoy your day.

Thank you very much JP!

You are Welcome.

Happy birthday, Eric !! Hope it is a great one !!

Eric, Happy Birthday! Sounds like you figured out how to celebrate! Welcome to the 60's. All the best!

Our first below normal temp (-1) of 2023 yesterday and first one in 17 days. We'll start a new streak of above normal to much above today through the week. Week 4 still looks like a more "seasonal" look to it temp wise and active. Depending on surface low tracks week 4 will determine if we can get a more wintery result

500mb pattern shift late week shows the long Aleutian trough pattern breaking down and a ridge develop on the west coast, bit that quickly retrograde to the Aleutian chain allowing a trough out west to deepen and a SEridge to begin. Notice the troughs moving into the center of the country and then lifting north instead of digging eastward.. EPS

Good Morning and a nice January day in store. Sunshine which is always nice around here during the winter. Larry Cosgrove is a well known met in Houston I believe is his home. He has a weekly summary of the weather and goes around the world which I love to see. Two things he mentioned with the first being the mjo and how this year has been terrible especially if you are forecasting only off that item. Second he mentioned that a SSW is already underway in Asia and Alaska. This is above my pay grade lol and hopefully someone on here has more info concerning that topic. He may be dead on and we just wait for the outcome later this month and in February. No doubt some really nice cold in Siberia once again and we saw this back in early Dec before we got that quick shot of cold near Christmas.

Bgoney nice maps and looking at those it will remain stormy with that pattern but does it bring snow is another question. We need more snow pack to the north and west and though we have 2 systems this week they seem sort of disorganized and not sure exactly where the snow will fall plus rather mild even up to the Canadian border.

my 10 day hardly has any cold in it. getting ready to punt this month. we will probably have to pay the piper at some point for all this nice boring weather , im sure our payback is coming next month perhaps

tpweather wrote: ↑Sun Jan 15, 2023 8:40 am Good Morning and a nice January day in store. Sunshine which is always nice around here during the winter. Larry Cosgrove is a well known met in Houston I believe is his home. He has a weekly summary of the weather and goes around the world which I love to see. Two things he mentioned with the first being the mjo and how this year has been terrible especially if you are forecasting only off that item. Second he mentioned that a SSW is already underway in Asia and Alaska. This is above my pay grade lol and hopefully someone on here has more info concerning that topic. He may be dead on and we just wait for the outcome later this month and in February. No doubt some really nice cold in Siberia once again and we saw this back in early Dec before we got that quick shot of cold near Christmas.

Bgoney nice maps and looking at those it will remain stormy with that pattern but does it bring snow is another question. We need more snow pack to the north and west and though we have 2 systems this week they seem sort of disorganized and not sure exactly where the snow will fall plus rather mild even up to the Canadian border.

Hey Tim, I agree and disagree with LC on the MJO, I think modeling has been descent with the maritime and far west pac phases, where it has been wrong is the far east pac phase and beyond. I have to say that we talked about 3 weeks ago when the MJO was in 6 and modeling showed in the extended that it would travel into 8 with mod strength, that it was going to be most likely wrong because of the hostile conditions near the dateline, that the more likely outcome would be it dieing in 7/8 and that's exactly what happened. I'm constantly miffed sometimes at what the hi profile mets are looking at sometimes. As far as the future MJO I still do expect an Indian ocean trek but intensity is in question

As far as an official SSW event goes , still have a lot that needs to go perfectly. A warming and displacement is on the board late late Jan. but that's as far as I'll go. Oddly enough the long-standing Aleutian Low pattern is what has and will cause the PV to become displaced, but in 7-10 days that will be gone and a ridge will replace it. Will that have been enough time for the PV to split or does it recover due to the ridge replacement, as always time will tell