Good morning folks! Just a trace recorded at CVG for snow so nothing to report for the contest. Visible satellite shows some dry air trying to punch in from the north to clear us out later this afternoon. Highs in the 30s today with wind chills in the 20s. Clear skies tonight with lows in the upper teens to lower 20s. Then a nice day tomorrow with highs in the low to mid 40s. For the Big Game Sun night, we sill start around 40 and drop into the 30s for the game. Conditions will remain dry for tailgaters too!We track the next rain maker on MLK ending early Tues morning. Most of Tues and Wed are dry. Mild too with temps back into the 50s next week. Then we watch the bigger system on Wed night and Thurs. I am still expecting mainly rain and even some t-storms possible then ending as some flakes. Again, much like the system we just had as far as the track goes with the low close to us.
Next system moves in by Sunday and Monday Jan. 22-23rd and that one may have a more wintry look to it depending on track. OP GFS keeps it mainly rain as the gradient pattern that I talked about gets established. Foreign models have us more into the cold air so a better wintry shot per the CMC and Euro. GEFS has more of a -PNA and SE Ridge due to the PNA ridge being too far offshore. That is a risk with this upcoming pattern. EPS looks better as it has the ridge a little closer to the Coast. We'll see folks, we'll just have to wait and see.
As of 1/12/23, per the Aussies... MJO is in the COD but close to maybe coming out in Phase 8? We'll need to keep an eye on that. Modeling has been awful for the MJO this winter so we'll just have to keep an eye on it with real time observations. Teleconnection forecasts this morning show the PNA spiking around the 22-23rd so maybe that is our time to cash in? Then it falls towards neutral. AO and NAO also look to head more towards the neutral range as well. Things are a movin' and a shakin' out there so a lot of uncertainty in the extended range for sure. Probably more so then usual.
It is forecast to weaken in time but the impacts if this does occur are sill unknown and we probably wouldn't know until sometime in February with regards to that anyway. What also may help for the back half of winter is the weakening of the La Nina. SOI started falling on 1/9 and as of today, this marks the 3rd day in a row with a negative reading. If we can string together a couple of weeks worth of negative SOI readings then we can truly say that this Nina is finally on its way out. I saw some ENSO modeling the other day that was pretty bullish going with a 50% chance of an El Nino by summer. I don't think that this Nina will be collapsing that quickly plus there is a lag time too with regards to atmospheric impacts and behavior. Anyway, we'll see like usual what happens as time goes on.
