Absolute Vorticity

BG SnowTalk! https://www.wave3.com/2021/11/24/snowta ... blog-1124/

For the lower 48 as a whole , probably one of the most benign November's I can remember. Pretty rare that you don't have any descent surface lows with heavy amounts of precip. the whole month somewhere in the 48. A mostly neutral PNA to blame

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Nov 24, 2021 8:56 am For the lower 48 as a whole , probably one of the most benign November's I can remember. Pretty rare that you don't have any descent surface lows with heavy amounts of precip. the whole month somewhere in the 48. A mostly neutral PNA to blame

Yeah, we haven't really seen much amplification to the jet stream. I would also add a +EPO in addition to the neutral PNA. Basically a crappy Pacific pattern.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Nov 24, 2021 8:56 am For the lower 48 as a whole , probably one of the most benign November's I can remember. Pretty rare that you don't have any descent surface lows with heavy amounts of precip. the whole month somewhere in the 48. A mostly neutral PNA to blame

I agree 100p/c. Many reasons for this and another one to add to the list is the later time for much of northern and central Canada to get cold. Novembers are usually very busy in terms of storm systems and that has not been the case. Do I believe this turns around in December and no doubt. Mother Nature will balance herself out and must do that to keep the earth in tack for life. Having a stormier December raises the chances for winter weather around here and most of us have been pointing towards a colder and snowier December. At this point in time their is no reason to change that forecast at all. La Nina may have her biggest push over the next 2 months and when she gets busy that usually means a stormier pattern for at least the eastern 2/3rds of the country. We talk about La Nina quite often and whether its a weak or moderate. These numbers are calculated over several months and with the current one I believe it will end up on the weak end. Saying that does not mean it has times where its rather strong and usually when we see and a rapid increase or decrease in the La Nina is when we get stormy. The Aussies believe we are starting to see some movement in the tropics and this will hopefully start moving the mjo into different phases.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 24, 2021 8:10 am BG SnowTalk! https://www.wave3.com/2021/11/24/snowta ... blog-1124/

Les I listened to Brian's podcast this morning and he mentioned everything we talked about for December. Always nice to see a met who you trust have similar ideals. The good thing is we are not listening to his forecasts and repeating what he said but we form are own ideals and try to form a forecast and if they turn out to be similar to his I have more confidence in the way we are forecasting longer term.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Nov 24, 2021 9:31 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 24, 2021 8:10 am BG SnowTalk! https://www.wave3.com/2021/11/24/snowta ... blog-1124/

Les I listened to Brian's podcast this morning and he mentioned everything we talked about for December. Always nice to see a met who you trust have similar ideals. The good thing is we are not listening to his forecasts and repeating what he said but we form are own ideals and try to form a forecast and if they turn out to be similar to his I have more confidence in the way we are forecasting longer term.

I agree Tim. The data we see over the next week will be very important with regards to us being on the right track or not for December. The current idea is to start mild (MJO Phase 6) then by the end of Week 1, it is expected to be in phase 7 which puts us on the battle line between the warm and the cold. If Phase 8 occurs, per the Aussie model then mid December on, should offer up great potential for the Christmas Season. Curious to see if the -EPO is a phantom again or do we actually see it develop in the next 2 weeks (as Bgoney has posted on).

EPS looks much colder in the extended but the GEFS overnight has bailed on the -EPO idea so thus a much warmer pattern. To me that'll be the deal breaker. +EPO or -EPO

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Nov 24, 2021 9:31 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 24, 2021 8:10 am BG SnowTalk! https://www.wave3.com/2021/11/24/snowta ... blog-1124/

Les I listened to Brian's podcast this morning and he mentioned everything we talked about for December. Always nice to see a met who you trust have similar ideals. The good thing is we are not listening to his forecasts and repeating what he said but we form are own ideals and try to form a forecast and if they turn out to be similar to his I have more confidence in the way we are forecasting longer term.

Great post Tim. Since about 2 years ago I rarely watch videos from any mets , I don't want my thoughts , right or wrong to be influenced , their looking at the same models we are, so it just became a summary of what we already talked about.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Nov 24, 2021 9:49 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Nov 24, 2021 9:31 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 24, 2021 8:10 am BG SnowTalk! https://www.wave3.com/2021/11/24/snowta ... blog-1124/

Les I listened to Brian's podcast this morning and he mentioned everything we talked about for December. Always nice to see a met who you trust have similar ideals. The good thing is we are not listening to his forecasts and repeating what he said but we form are own ideals and try to form a forecast and if they turn out to be similar to his I have more confidence in the way we are forecasting longer term.

Great post Tim. Since about 2 years ago I rarely watch videos from any mets , I don't want my thoughts , right or wrong to be influenced , their looking at the same models we are, so it just became a summary of what we already talked about.

I agree with your point on this Bgoney, but I like getting other Mets perspectives at the same time. I look at it like did I miss something in my own analysis? Maybe I'll learn something. But you absolutely bring up a great point at the same time. A lot of the time it is a summary of what we discuss here, which means that we aren't missing anything with our own analysis. Like Tim said, I do trust BG. I think he is an unbiased Met so if his ideas match ours, that's a good thing.

Absolutely guys , BG is awesome, and I know i should probably watch more of the videos. I just kind of drifted away from those for the reasons I mentioned. I trust what the AV gangs views are pretty much in line with the big boys

I'm done working now until Monday so I can talk weather a little more now! 12Z GFS coming in and the clipper is still too far north for snow. A touch of rain from it but that's about it. The pattern over the next 10 days is actually rather boring. Wet on Thanksgiving, then a couple of clippers passing to our north and not much else really happening until around 12/5 or so when a stronger front comes in to try and changes things up a bit.

Speaking of the 5th, Today's 12Z GFS has an odd solution with that front coming in. The front passes but then we get a closed upper low over the TN Valley that sits there and spins for a while producing rain and snow for the region. First time I've seen that solution pop up but it is in Fantasy Range anyway so it'll be gone in 6 hours.

12Z GEFS in the extended range continues to show a Bering Sea ridge with a trough over the Gulf of Alaska and into the Pacific NW with a ridge over the SW US. Trough is centered over the Great Lakes into New England and SE Canada. Not a favorable pattern for wintry weather but not a complete shut out type of pattern either. The PV is in our side of the globe though so that is a good thing. We need that Bering Sea ridge to shift East to kick that GOA trough out of the way then we could get things going more in a cold and snowier direction. Per the GEFS, not seeing any signs of that occurring at this time.

55 so far here today, 53 CVG. A bit breezy but not too shabby outside. Enjoy since we turn cooler and wet tomorrow esp in the morning.

High temp here so far is 51 which is the current temp.

CVG also hit 55 today. Lows should stay at or above 40 at least down here for tonight due to clouds and southerly flow ahead of our rain maker for Turkey Day. Temps will hold in the 40s tomorrow then start dropping during the afternoon once the front passes.

For the clipper... going to keep snow out of the forecast for our area. Any snow with the clipper should be found well north of AV Country and over N IN, N OH and S Mich. Can't rule out some rain with the passage of the clipper, but it'll be light in nature and probably mainly for the I-70 Crew anyway. After the Turkey Day rain tomorrow, not much else to talk about as I said earlier until we roll into December a bit.

HAVE A BLESSED AND HAPPY THANKSGIVING, EVERYWXONE!!

Happy Thanksgiving to you all! Thanks to all for being part of our awesome AV Weather Family! I have known most of you for a very long time over the years and I've seen some new faces too. Always a good time talking weather with you all and learning something new each day.

Rain is moving into the region this morning. Expect a wet day with temps in the U40s to L50s (right now) which will drop thru the 40s later today. We will see 20s tonight and only the 30s tomorrow for Black Friday. Some flakes are possible later tonight into early Fri mainly north and east of town. No issues are expected.

From the boys... Thanksgiving Climo for Cincy, Dayton, and Columbus:

BG SnowTalk! https://www.wave3.com/2021/11/25/snowta ... g-edition/

Hope everyone has a good Old fashioned fun family Thanksgiving.



Winter in winter seems to be catching some by surprise


https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodi ... 021-11-24/

Happy Thanksgiving to everyone on this forum along with their family and friends. I love all the holidays but this is my favorite. Turkey,football and beer are 3 of my favorites. This time of year is when we really start to see chances for winter weather locally. Saying that does not mean its going to snow right away but usually we start to see hints of winter heading this way.

Going to give my thoughts for the next week or so and then the cooking begins. Today through Saturday everyone knows it will be rainy today and then colder Friday and Saturday. The clipper for late Saturday and Sunday. My thought process on this was to have one clipper and that is one reason I thought their could be some accumulating snow in the Ohio Valley. Again folks northeast of here still may get some but I thought this would dig a little further south. Models even show another one maybe later Monday and possible but that may be well north of here. I still believe it gets warmer than the models are showing later next week and still believe a couple of days in the low 60's are possible before we see a bigger storm over the central USA. Next weekend and will that be the pattern change or just a brief period of stormier and then colder air. Mjo is in the COD again and does it appear in a warmer or colder phase or just hang out in the COD. Going to see big changes with models runs over the next several days and what to look for in the models is trends. Plenty of cold air to tap in Canada as they have went from early fall to early winter in about 2 weeks. I still believe and early onset to winter and folks in the weather world are all over the place concerning this issue and reasons validate both outcomes.

Have a wonderful day and I will try and post again on Friday which is leftover day which I love.

0.14" here so far. Same with the Boone Co mesonet site and at CVG.

Happy Thanksgiving to all on the forum. Heading south today to your guys neck of the woods. Eat, be merry, and be thankful for those around you.