Absolute Vorticity

dce wrote: ↑Mon Nov 25, 2024 3:19 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Nov 25, 2024 2:52 pm Decent track from EU for Wednesday, but doesn’t change the forecast. Surface temps 34-38 throughout the region (Dayton/Cbus/Cvg For duration of precipitation along with a slightly improved upper level temp regime but not nearly enough for drastic change . Light rain/mix , possibly ending as a few flakes

It's really close to putting down some snow. It's likely the NAM is too cold on its temperature profiles so it's spitting out more snow. Would have to think rain at this point, but it wouldn't take much to see a stripe of snow with this thing.

Just saw the NAM, I just don’t think this system has the dynamics for much CAA snow event that the NAM is showing . To me , at least for the moment is mostly an over-running event with the preceding air not conducive for much snow I70 and southward

If the low is too weak, yes you get the better track, but the influx of cold air on the NW side won't be as good. If you get a stronger low then the track is more NW and you're on the warm side of it anyway. It is a touchy set up with this system around Thanksgiving. I see no changes to my forecast as of yet. Still going with rain S of I-70 and a mix / snow to the north. Ending as flakes for all at the end.

61 for the high here and at CVG today. Showers are moving in from the West with cold front number 1. This will set the track for the Thanksgiving system.

Good morning all! My confidence is increasing with the ongoing forecast. Models are in better agreement now and the call that we've had on here is right. We just need to tweak the timing. For folks S of I-70, look for rain late in the day on Wed and into the overnight. Could see a lingering shower Thanksgiving Morning otherwise, cool with highs in the low 40s. I also won't rule out a few flurries coming off the lakes on Black Friday. For folks to the north of I-70, look for a mix of snow and rain going over to all snow Wed night into early Thurs. Not sure on accum. Wont rule out a grassy inch or two I suppose. The Lake Effect areas will be the areas that will be most impacted by the snow going forward.

All areas turn much colder. Our first clipper is due in Sat night. Latest Euro and GFS have a weak system passing us to the south. We will need to keep an eye on the intensity and track of that system. That's a wrap on November!

Good Morning and Les has the forecast taken care of through November. The Thanksgiving system is weaker than I thought and should of known since the Euro was not holding it up over the southwest like normal. Received 0.32 inches of rainfall so that helps in the rainfall department.

CVG picked up 0.27" from the overnight front.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 26, 2024 4:29 am Good morning all! My confidence is increasing with the ongoing forecast. Models are in better agreement now and the call that we've had on here is right. We just need to tweak the timing. For folks S of I-70, look for rain late in the day on Wed and into the overnight. Could see a lingering shower Thanksgiving Morning otherwise, cool with highs in the low 40s. I also won't rule out a few flurries coming off the lakes on Black Friday. For folks to the north of I-70, look for a mix of snow and rain going over to all snow Wed night into early Thurs. Not sure on accum. Wont rule out a grassy inch or two I suppose. The Lake Effect areas will be the areas that will be most impacted by the snow going forward.

All areas turn much colder. Our first clipper is due in Sat night. Latest Euro and GFS have a weak system passing us to the south. We will need to keep an eye on the intensity and track of that system. That's a wrap on November!

Bring on the lake effect. I won't see much but eastern Cuyahoga will and out east into lake county. Have a good thanksgiving.

Weathermanbryan wrote: ↑Tue Nov 26, 2024 6:11 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 26, 2024 4:29 am Good morning all! My confidence is increasing with the ongoing forecast. Models are in better agreement now and the call that we've had on here is right. We just need to tweak the timing. For folks S of I-70, look for rain late in the day on Wed and into the overnight. Could see a lingering shower Thanksgiving Morning otherwise, cool with highs in the low 40s. I also won't rule out a few flurries coming off the lakes on Black Friday. For folks to the north of I-70, look for a mix of snow and rain going over to all snow Wed night into early Thurs. Not sure on accum. Wont rule out a grassy inch or two I suppose. The Lake Effect areas will be the areas that will be most impacted by the snow going forward.

All areas turn much colder. Our first clipper is due in Sat night. Latest Euro and GFS have a weak system passing us to the south. We will need to keep an eye on the intensity and track of that system. That's a wrap on November!

Bring on the lake effect. I won't see much but eastern Cuyahoga will and out east into lake county. Have a good thanksgiving.

Good morning Bryan! Hope you and the wife also have a nice Turkey Day as well! LES looks good in the typical snow belts. You won't have to go far to chase lol

Sitting at number 1 all time warmest 25 days of November Cvg and I’m sure elsewhere around the region , a whopping 7 degrees above normal, guaranteeing one of the warmest Novembers on record

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Nov 26, 2024 7:00 am Sitting at number 1 all time warmest 25 days of November Cvg and I’m sure elsewhere around the region , a whopping 7 degrees above normal, guaranteeing one of the warmest Novembers on record

One thing that I am happy to see is a month where we got above normal precip. That has been a while!

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 26, 2024 7:44 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Nov 26, 2024 7:00 am Sitting at number 1 all time warmest 25 days of November Cvg and I’m sure elsewhere around the region , a whopping 7 degrees above normal, guaranteeing one of the warmest Novembers on record

One thing that I am happy to see is a month where we got above normal precip. That has been a while!

Thankful for that for sure for SW Oh , while other parts of the region not quite as lucky. Also, the 2” of snow in the midst of these temps was truly a gift from Ma nature

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Nov 26, 2024 8:06 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 26, 2024 7:44 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Nov 26, 2024 7:00 am Sitting at number 1 all time warmest 25 days of November Cvg and I’m sure elsewhere around the region , a whopping 7 degrees above normal, guaranteeing one of the warmest Novembers on record

One thing that I am happy to see is a month where we got above normal precip. That has been a while!

Thankful for that for sure for SW Oh , while other parts of the region not quite as lucky. Also, the 2” of snow in the midst of these temps was truly a gift from Ma nature

No doubt! We got double our monthly snowfall avg (using CVG). Hope to see that luck continue this winter.

I'm starting to like the I-70 crew's chances for an inch or two of snow Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Should know a lot more after today's model runs.

dce wrote: ↑Tue Nov 26, 2024 8:08 am I'm starting to like the I-70 crew's chances for an inch or two of snow Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Should know a lot more after today's model runs.

I agree. I mentioned that earlier also. Although I am going North of I-70 for that versus south of I-70 at this time.

CVG got to 61, DAY 60 and CMH 59 yesterday.

NAM is finally showing what we’ve been talking about for the thanksgiving system for I70 southward. Temp profile, high dewpoints equal no dynamic cooling

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Nov 26, 2024 10:37 am NAM is finally showing what we’ve been talking about for the thanksgiving system for I70 southward. Temp profile, high dewpoints equal no dynamic cooling

I have no changes to my call. Still like rain S of I-70 and a mix / snow to the north. A slushy 1-2" on grassy areas / car tops, etc is possible for those areas that can cool enough to see snow in our N counties. A chilly rain for those of us in the southern forecast area. Still thinking we can end as a few flakes even down here but that's going to be it for the Thanksgiving system.

The best chance for Cincinnati to receive snow will be with that weak clipper for Sat evening / overnight. We'll have to wait and see how much energy we get to play with as well as the track once we get closer.

Good Afternoon and no changes for the upcoming system and probably another 0.35-.5 but we may get a bit more as this system has a few more hours of rainfall. Most likely locally finish up with some snow but with be light and no accumulation here locally and even north of here the accumulation would be on grassy surfaces and roads should be just fine. Then we get cold and a nice arctic air mass so any snow we get from Nov 29th-Dec 7th will have no problem in sticking. Clippers are smaller pieces of energy and tend to run on the cold/milder air mass which is to the west. No doubt the ratio will be higher with this air mass and not surprise to see ratios higher than 15-1 so even .10 of precip can bring you 1 1/2 to 2 inches of fluffy snow. Not predicted that here but will watch and see where this clipper tracks and probably by Friday should be narrowed down. The biggest clipper I have ever seen was in either 77 or 78 when we got nearly 7 inches out a clipper that started out as flurries and then they changed the forecast to 1-2 inches and then 4 inches and finally gave up the forecasting once we got near 7 inches. Nothing like that with this clipper though I can see a heavier band of 1-3 inches somewhere in the Missouri or Ohio Valley. Then next week we will be cold and will watch for any energy that pops up and my guess we will see another clipper sometime during the week.

Les overnight Wednesday I will have one of my favorite items in the winter and that is 38 and rain as this usually ends up being the forerunner of a decent shot of winter weather.

45 degrees. Beautiful thanksgiving eve eve getter done kind of day!!

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Nov 26, 2024 12:50 pm Good Afternoon and no changes for the upcoming system and probably another 0.35-.5 but we may get a bit more as this system has a few more hours of rainfall. Most likely locally finish up with some snow but with be light and no accumulation here locally and even north of here the accumulation would be on grassy surfaces and roads should be just fine. Then we get cold and a nice arctic air mass so any snow we get from Nov 29th-Dec 7th will have no problem in sticking. Clippers are smaller pieces of energy and tend to run on the cold/milder air mass which is to the west. No doubt the ratio will be higher with this air mass and not surprise to see ratios higher than 15-1 so even .10 of precip can bring you 1 1/2 to 2 inches of fluffy snow. Not predicted that here but will watch and see where this clipper tracks and probably by Friday should be narrowed down. The biggest clipper I have ever seen was in either 77 or 78 when we got nearly 7 inches out a clipper that started out as flurries and then they changed the forecast to 1-2 inches and then 4 inches and finally gave up the forecasting once we got near 7 inches. Nothing like that with this clipper though I can see a heavier band of 1-3 inches somewhere in the Missouri or Ohio Valley. Then next week we will be cold and will watch for any energy that pops up and my guess we will see another clipper sometime during the week.

Les overnight Wednesday I will have one of my favorite items in the winter and that is 38 and rain as this usually ends up being the forerunner of a decent shot of winter weather.

I thought it was 33 and rain.

CVG reached 49, DAY 48 and CMH 52 today.

I think we've got the forecast locked in pretty good thru most of the Holiday. Will use this thread for the Sat night clipper and then anything beyond that, would of course go into the December thread.

18Z GFS brings the clipper back from the dead, Cincy on south. 12Z Euro still weak and south. GEFS Members are anything from too far north to a swing and a miss south. I am going with a chance for light snow Tri-state on South Sat night. Up to 1" possible where the best snow occurs. We'll have arctic air in place. Ground will be cold finally... Time of day also good, mainly after dark event. Bad news... it is weakening so limited moisture. We'll have to see how much the vort max gets sheared out. That determines track and snow coverage.