November 2024 Weather Discussion

[tpweather]

Thanks Eric,hope you and your family are doing well. I put out a couple of short stories yesterday lol. The Thanksgiving storm and the GFS and CMC are keeping this storm weak and to the south while the Euro is stronger and further north. Which way will this turn out or will another option appear. The GFS is normally to fast with these systems but the CMC also showing this so you must put a little more trust in the model. The Euro which many times hangs back energy in the southwest does not show this with the system and just has it stronger which allows it to come further north.

At this point until I have more info I am leaning towards the Euro. I understand energy in the pacific is rather strong but are we just getting pieces of that energy instead of the full amount of energy and if so how much of that energy are we seeing with this storm. The cold will come in after the storm and that part of the forecast and the first week of Dec looks good but still need to figure out the Thanksgiving storm because many folks travel that day by car.

[Bgoney]

Latest NOAA winter outlook continues to be encouraging , especially from them , since they have been more right than others in the past. Source region to sustain the cold air for long periods is a good sign for Midwest/OV . It’s been a while. The outlook hasn’t changed much from six weeks ago and since we’re nearly in Dec their confidence is obviously very high with how ENSO will be kept in check. A good temp gradient pattern for Midwest/OV with panhandle lows

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[tpweather]

Nice Map and agree with much of the map but would extend the warmer temps further north in the central plains and the cold further south in the northeast. Still believe this winter has better chances of clippers and this would do a few things and keep the midwest and northeast near to slightly below normal in temps but also bring some temps near to slightly above normal in the central plains. For us locally still believe slightly above normal temps but plenty of chances for intrusions of cold air.

[tron777]

Good morning folks! My thoughts on the Wed - Black Friday period hasn't changed. Before we get there, let's not forget about the Mon PM / night cold front which brings a slug of rain with it. Then we are cool and dry on Tues. Rain moves back in Wed PM into Thanksgiving. Rain . snow line for this system IMO is near / N ofI-70. So our northern counties IMO have a shot at wintry weather, Going all rain for ?Cincy of course and yes I am favoring the Euro solution at this time. Everybody should end as flakes on Black Friday.

The bigger news is highs in the 20s and 30s with lows in the teens starts up next weekend on into the 1st week of December. Snow chances are still TBD. The NW flow is very fast so these systems won't have a lot of time to dig. We may see something more significant ahead of the next shot of cold air around Dec 5-8th. That is a time period to watch for the first potential winter storm of the season for our area.

[tpweather]

Getting near December and will throw out my thoughts for that month later this week. November is going to turn out exactly as forecast except a tad more snow but that is okay. Going to end up wet for November and temps 3-5 above normal after the warm start. Last year was not the best year in forecasting for myself and hopefully the hot start of November will carry me through the winter.

[tpweather]

Good morning folks! My thoughts on the Wed - Black Friday period hasn't changed. Before we get there, let's not forget about the Mon PM / night cold front which brings a slug of rain with it. Then we are cool and dry on Tues. Rain moves back in Wed PM into Thanksgiving. Rain . snow line for this system IMO is near / N ofI-70. So our northern counties IMO have a shot at wintry weather, Going all rain for ?Cincy of course and yes I am favoring the Euro solution at this time. Everybody should end as flakes on Black Friday.

The bigger news is highs in the 20s and 30s with lows in the teens starts up next weekend on into the 1st week of December. Snow chances are still TBD. The NW flow is very fast so these systems won't have a lot of time to dig. We may see something more significant ahead of the next shot of cold air around Dec 5-8th. That is a time period to watch for the first potential winter storm of the season for our area.

Good Morning Les and yes that first week of Dec looks cold and of course this far out clippers are not going to show on models especially since they are normally weaker pieces of energy. I agree about the fast flow especially early in the week of Dec 2 so we need to be near the jet to see a clipper or two get us locally but I do believe starting next weekend the lake effect snow is going to be nice and yes even this far south we may see some light snow or snow showers make it to the river or nearby.

[tron777]

The LES machine will be cranking for sure Tim over the next week or two. No doubt about that. Question will be strength and track of any clippers that can dig far enough south to impact us and not get shredded in the fast flow.

[tpweather]

Les we are in agreement over the next two weeks and the only item is the Thanksgiving storm. To me the way this is shaping up is more a rain-snow system which we see quite often this time of year. How fast does the cold air move in with this system is key and of course the track of the storm. Still watching for the onset Wednesday night to see if moisture gets in here fast enough where it may be an hour or two of frozen activity since colder air will have moved in past the early week system. Not expecting much but if you live further north and east will need to watch for a few hours. Friday-Sunday looks cold and yes some chances for snow showers but no doubt a winter time feel and look.

Will continue to see how the mid-week storm develops and again I believe we are looking at this correctly but strength and exact track still need to work itself out.

[tpweather]

Just checking in with the latest from the models concerning the Thanksgiving storm. The gfs and cmc are both out and though they agreed on a faster system with the previous runs and this has changed. The gfs continues to be fast and weaker with the system which we know the gfs is known to be faster. The Cmc though has gone towards the Euro on this run and has a slower and stronger storm. The CMC does put in the cold and drier air in the system rather quickly and maybe to quick. So at this point still looks rain to snow for us locally but is it just your normal dusting as the moisture is leaving or is there going to be enough to provide some accumulation.. Still to early in the process but at least the cmc seems to be going in the direction of the Euro which I agree with

[tron777]

12Z GFS and CMC both have the next Sunday clipper back. That's nice to see! Both models look interesting in their respective longer terms for wintry weather. Nice runs so far today concerning the extended. Got the leaves ground up. Now it's time for My Lions!

[tron777]

Euro's looking good too for the next weekend clipper just quicker, faster and a bit weaker then the other models. It also looks cold and active overall too. I think some fun times are ahead friends!

[tron777]

A nice afternoon in progress! 57 here today, 56 CVG. My Lions are looking like they are going to win today against Eric's Colts. 10-1 Go Lions! ROAR!

[MVWxObserver]

CVG reached 56, DAY 53 and CMH 49 today.

[tron777]

Good Monday morning to you all! A 3 day work week for me this week then it's food and My Lions! Not much else to report this morning. Mild ahead of our little rain maker for later today into tonight. Then late Wed into Thanksgiving still rain for Cincy and mix / snow I-70 on north. Euro and GFS solutions have not changed when I checked the overnight runs. Then I am going with a little clipper for sometime next weekend.

[Bgoney]

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[tpweather]

Good Morning and though the models are still in different camps on the outcome of the late week system I still believe the Euro seems the more likely outcome. Locally rain to snow though chances of accumulating snow is not great. No doubt colder air arrives and looks to be here for the 1st week of Dec. With a northwest flow I do expect a few clippers to head this way and again models will have a hard time seeing those unless one has nice core of energy.

Getting back to the Thanksgiving system and I thought the storm may have been stronger but it seems the energy out west is just sending pieces of energy eastward instead of one big piece. For the upcoming weekend it does look a piece of energy in here Saturday and temps no doubt cold enough for snow and yes some accumulating snow though light and will one day this weekend stay below 32.

[MVWxObserver]

My church is having a Christmas banquet dinner on Sun evening the 1st at a local catering establishment here in Greenville so some snow showers or a little light snow would be a nice added touch.

[tron777]

[tpweather]

Another great video by Brian. He explains everything we try and explain on here in a easy to understand way. Clippers are just little pieces of energy that he explained is more likely when we see the upcoming pattern. Problem is these are not always easy to pick up on and many times the energy will get stronger or weaker in a very short period. I still believe this winter is primed for these clippers and I believe 2 of these could bring some decent snows and that is 3 inches or more. Starting Saturday through early next week I am not seeing a strong clipper because you need a very strong piece of energy or an influx of warmer air from the south and southwest and not seeing that with the possible 2 clippers Saturday and Monday. The ground though may be finally cold enough though to see what falls stick to all surfaces. I agree with Brian as well that usually these cold pattern have a life span of 10-14 days usually and again these can last awhile longer with plenty of snow cover but I am not seeing that happening at this time. Sooner or later the cold air becomes stale and need the arctic to reload on the cold air. Way to early to see the pattern for Christmas but do expect a milder period sometime in that 2nd or 3rd week of December. How mild is still a question mark.

[tron777]

I agree Tim... the clippers won't show up very well until 48 hours out at minimum. 12Z GFS trended weather / south with the Thanksgiving system and weekend clipper system as well.

[BookNerdCarp]

I am not sure if anyone has posted this. This is a meteorologist I have been following on YouTube. He does good, concise, and descriptive videos. No hype or selling involved.

[tron777]

I am not sure if anyone has posted this. This is a meteorologist I have been following on YouTube. He does good, concise, and descriptive videos. No hype or selling involved.

I watch Travis also Matt. Very informative videos!

[Bgoney]

Decent track from EU for Wednesday, but doesn’t change the forecast. Surface temps 34-38 throughout the region (Dayton/Cbus/Cvg For duration of precipitation along with a slightly improved upper level temp regime but not nearly enough for drastic change . Light rain/mix , possibly ending as a few flakes

[dce]

Decent track from EU for Wednesday, but doesn’t change the forecast. Surface temps 34-38 throughout the region (Dayton/Cbus/Cvg For duration of precipitation along with a slightly improved upper level temp regime but not nearly enough for drastic change . Light rain/mix , possibly ending as a few flakes

It's really close to putting down some snow. It's likely the NAM is too cold on its temperature profiles so it's spitting out more snow. Would have to think rain at this point, but it wouldn't take much to see a stripe of snow with this thing.

[tpweather]

I agree about the track but again we have not had a true arctic air mass to get those surface temps lower. Even with some snow flying we are talking the normal grass,trees but roads just wet. We will however get that needed air mass in here this weekend and any snow that may fall from say Nov 30th through Dec 7th or so would have a better shot of accumulating. The biggest problem still in the longer term is not much in the way of snow to our northwest and more towards the northeast after this week. That means a warm up will have an easier time returning whenever that date may happen.