Absolute Vorticity

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Nov 22, 2021 8:00 am Good Morning Les and agree that we need the mjo to head into phase 6 and 7 and like you mentioned continue on into the colder phase of 8,1 and 2. What you don't want to see this time of year is the mjo heading into phases 3-5 and that is not the case. Next week I would expect Fairbanks to see temps in the -40 - -50 range which is cold but again not record breaking. This kind of cold is storing up and needed for us to get cold and we just need that highway to bring the cold down.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Nov 22, 2021 8:27 am MJO has been moving through quicksand and now entering molasses, I just don't see it being a factor in the overall pattern through the first week of December as far as influencing a much colder air mass for the OV. The PV remains strong and looks to continue into the first week of Dec.

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Nov 22, 2021 7:43 am Good Morning and the clouds kept temps up a few degrees last night. How cold do we get on Tuesday morning and will there be a few upper teens in those normally colder areas? I know folks in the weather world always get nervous when there is very little snow to talk about but in reality its only November 22nd. We are fine here and if two months from today and the same pattern is in place then I worry. The place that really needs to worry is the Rocky mountains. November and March are the two biggest months in terms of snowfall. The ski resorts are not looking good as the southwest ridge is keeping them high and dry.

Looked at the models this morning and my clipper is nowhere it be found for next weekend. Give it a few more days and see if that push of warmer air helps in creating some snow before it gets mild. Next week should be the calm before the storm as we could see a few days in the low 60's and no rainfall but expect storminess and much colder temps arriving for the 1st full week of December. That is when the polar jet and stj should start to work together and change the mild and dry landscape to a much colder and wet landscape for the eastern 2/3rds of the country. Usually this will start with a bigger storm in the central USA that throws snow into the northern and central plains and upper midwest with a strong cold front and then will their be a second system to follow up that can bring snows further south and east.

The fall season has been a good 7-10 days behind normal in terms of snow and cold this season as we saw in Canada just a month ago folks were wondering if the snow and cold was ever going to arrive and it has with a bang as temps were some 15-20 degrees above normal in early November to well below normal.

Still very excited about and nice start to winter which includes snow and cold and the current set up is just fine. A week from today I would love to see the extended forecast and I believe for us winter lovers that we will be very happy.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 22, 2021 12:51 pm Bo... if I recall, even Cincinnati stayed below freezing for a large chunk of January. Pretty remarkable indeed!

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Nov 22, 2021 2:08 pm The good old days. The boys and I had built a camp to keep us off the streets lol. Nice camp with a fireplace which was needed. I owned 2 pair of jeans,3 tee-shirts and a long jean jacket but was never cold. I think about all the material things available today and nothing wrong with that at all but back then most folks had very little in the way of clothes, one tv and one car for the whole family. Big boom in the 80's and 90's that moved folks up from low-middle income to middle income. What a great country and all you need is hard work and money management to enjoy a comfortable living.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 22, 2021 2:03 pm Thanks Bgoney... what a run!

Tim... the Euro brought your little clipper back.

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Nov 22, 2021 2:16 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 22, 2021 2:03 pm Thanks Bgoney... what a run!

Tim... the Euro brought your little clipper back.

Hey Les and thanks for the update. You know I go with patterns and when I see warm air trying to overtake cold air in the late fall-early spring usually their is some precip to go along with the pattern. As we know clippers are fast moving systems and you need to be in the correct spot to get some snow but from what I saw the past coupe of days I still believe somewhere in the Ohio Valley some snow should fall and accumulate. Exact spot is way to early but I thought it was important enough to put in my forecast. I just checked the Euro and that is a nice spot for a low and again don't take that exact location for the low this far in advance but I believe something is brewing for that time period.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 22, 2021 2:48 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Nov 22, 2021 2:16 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 22, 2021 2:03 pm Thanks Bgoney... what a run!

Tim... the Euro brought your little clipper back.

Hey Les and thanks for the update. You know I go with patterns and when I see warm air trying to overtake cold air in the late fall-early spring usually their is some precip to go along with the pattern. As we know clippers are fast moving systems and you need to be in the correct spot to get some snow but from what I saw the past coupe of days I still believe somewhere in the Ohio Valley some snow should fall and accumulate. Exact spot is way to early but I thought it was important enough to put in my forecast. I just checked the Euro and that is a nice spot for a low and again don't take that exact location for the low this far in advance but I believe something is brewing for that time period.

Euro so far is the only model to bring it back so we'll see if it can gain further support.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 23, 2021 7:00 am I've dropped to 17. CVG officially got down to 19. Tim... I believe you mentioned the upper teens as being possible... great job! I thought it would be possible in rural areas but not here.