December 2024 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

wow it is -2 degrees now. holy cow

That's what clear skies, calm winds, and a snow pack will do for you.

[tron777]

Good morning all! 24 degrees here this morning as our warm up begins. Rain chances also begin tonight and last thru much of the upcoming week. The rain chances look light and do not look to be long lasting until we get to the weekend. Sunday looking wet at this time. Looking mild too with temps in the 40s and 50s for highs. All lows will be above freezing at CVG for a bit.

As we get into January, the GFS has a cutter and then has the cold coming in after 1/3. Foreign models still bring the cold in on NYD. So we are still seeing some differences there. If we look at the Ensembles the GEFS is by the 3rd and by the 2nd for the EPS. So all are within the 1-1 to 1-3 ballpark for the timing of the colder pattern to take place.

Individual storm systems are still too far away. I am looking for a big cutter around NYE or NYD to ushering in the colder pattern is my current thinking. Then, there looks to be a couple possible systems in the 1-3 to 1-8 time frame. I've seen cutters being modeled, OV snow events, as well as East Coast bombs. We just don't yet know how the jet stream pattern will be and how the MJO will play out. Then it comes down to timing and luck for snow events as you all know.

[Bgoney]

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[Bgoney]

All the above maps along with 850 wind anomalies, imo , means it’s highly likely models showing the MJO weakening in 7/8 in the medium range are on the right track

[tpweather]

Good Morning and really not much as changed concerning the long term. A nice warming trend this week which will bring some light rain at times but most of the week will be cloudy and blah. All signs point to the colder air returning and with this recent cold period I moved my return back about 3-4 days so instead of the 1st how bout the 4th or 5th before we really get into the colder air. To get there we can use a big storm or two and that is likely starting this weekend. We need these to switch the pattern. Models have problems with dense cold air and usually underestimates how cold and how far south it can go. Yes having snow cover to the north helps but what I have seen in the past is about 3-5 days before the cold actually arrives the models will get colder. This also changes how different systems play out in terms of precip type. Heading into the heart of winter helps as well and probably the one item that has concerned me is the cold in the polar regions this season have not been that cold compared to normal. Most year we will see those -50 - -70 readings quite often in Dec and Jan. Most of the time this season its stayed in the -30 - -40 range. Still plenty of cold but what effects will that have once we see that cold expand southward though south central Canada doing well with snow and more on the way later this week into the New Year.

I really don't have an answer because I am sure its happen before in the winter but I don't remember ever seeing a winter where the temps are that mild in the arctic regions for an extended period. Maybe this week it becomes colder as the polar vortex stays in place but not sure and will just wait and see.

[Bgoney]

Expected snow cover after the warmer temps through the 30th

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[tpweather]

Expected snow cover after the warmer temps through the 30th


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Yes and very good coverage for southern Canada and expect more in the next 8-10 days. Northern plains and upper mid-west need some help and hopefully a nice cutter or two will help that area. Over the past several years I have seen in some years no snow cover in parts of southern Canada this time of year so this map is much better in those terms

[MVWxObserver]

CVG got to 50, DAY 47 and CMH 44 on Mon.

[airwolf76]

Good morning all! 24 degrees here this morning as our warm up begins. Rain chances also begin tonight and last thru much of the upcoming week. The rain chances look light and do not look to be long lasting until we get to the weekend. Sunday looking wet at this time. Looking mild too with temps in the 40s and 50s for highs. All lows will be above freezing at CVG for a bit.

As we get into January, the GFS has a cutter and then has the cold coming in after 1/3. Foreign models still bring the cold in on NYD. So we are still seeing some differences there. If we look at the Ensembles the GEFS is by the 3rd and by the 2nd for the EPS. So all are within the 1-1 to 1-3 ballpark for the timing of the colder pattern to take place.

Individual storm systems are still too far away. I am looking for a big cutter around NYE or NYD to ushering in the colder pattern is my current thinking. Then, there looks to be a couple possible systems in the 1-3 to 1-8 time frame. I've seen cutters being modeled, OV snow events, as well as East Coast bombs. We just don't yet know how the jet stream pattern will be and how the MJO will play out. Then it comes down to timing and luck for snow events as you all know.

pretty much what i have been reading and seeing also. been saying the second full week in Jan to offer up a chance at more cold and snow shots as well. and the MJO shows that potential also with being strong 7 into 8 by then. also the polar vortex being elongated will probably drop another hammer down around that time also.

[tron777]

Good morning and Merry Christmas Eve to you all! A touch of light rain this morning otherwise a mild and cloudy day is in store.

[Bgoney]

Les’s post from yesterday morning for the new year still ringing true. A wait and see on the depth of arctic air into the lower 48 and the eventual progression and strength of MJO to say how that goes. PV currently at record strength but expected to weaken to near normal over the next ten days.

[tpweather]

Good Morning and not many changes as we are in the holding pattern. Every day we see a few changes in the tellies but nothing the really makes a big difference but minor changes yes. The mjo continues to look weak though moving through the warmer phases. The prediction of the AO,NAO and PNA have not changed much though the AO continues to look very negative and if correct I would expect at least a part of the polar vortex to be on this side of the planet. The NAO looks to stay around the neutral area and we need this to go more negative to get a pattern that can allow systems to have more staying power instead of just moving quickly west to east. The PNA looks to stay slightly positive and that is good and keeps the southeast at bay somewhat but still enough to bring up some moisture from the GOM which really has done little for the most part in December.

A record PV I was not aware of and my thoughts are if the PV is that strong I thought the cold air would be colder in that region. Many other factors no doubt determines temps at the surface with the PV. Next week do we flip to cold and know it is gradual at first but that is imo what you want with a cold air mass and again models almost always underestimate temps when a decent cold air mass arrives in the USA in January. This time it looks like the cold will cover more ground than in December and that also gives me more confidence of a nice shot of cold and one that may last longer than say 3 or 4 days. A decent cold outbreak in January will tend to last 10-14 days in our area and I expect the true cold air around the 4th or 5th of the month and that lasts until say the 14-20th or so and that is the heart of winter. Snowfall so hard to predict but if we get a decent snow pack by the middle of the month then this type of pattern can last a tad longer as it takes longer to move the cold out but if we are unlucky and end up with very little snow then these milder air masses can push in a little easier.

Concerns in forecasting and always some and one being lack of snow in the northern and central plains and I hope we see a few storms heading into the first week of January that brings snow to that area. NAO staying positive would be a concern as well and the blocking would be less and this would allow systems to move faster and we don't have the over the top blocking from Greenland to Alaska which is a good combo to really get the coldest of air into the USA. The pna is fine but we don't want to see that go negative even with other factors this can wake up the southeast ridge even more and sure we get cold but that ridge can be just enough to get us a tad milder ahead of a storm and we get the old rain to snow systems followed by the cold.

That is enough for today so the pattern does look good in January but as we know even with a great pattern you can be unlucky in the snow department around here.

Everyone have a great Christmas Eve and Christmas and heading out this afternoon to see the movie Wicked. Loved the play and lets see how good the movie is and the worse thing possible is its bad and I come home and watch Scrooge a 1970 movie with Albert Finney which I saw as a 9 year old and I believe is the best of the so-called Scrooge/A Christmas Carol movies. If still awake I can always turn on Die Hard another Christmas favorite

[Bgoney]

GEFs trending closer to the EU progression. Might start seeing a reflection of these trends in the fantasy ranges of the op’s in a day or two

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[airwolf76]

I know Jan is still a ways off yet but telliconnections are looking good for early-mid Jan time frame

[tpweather]

The mjo forecast tells me that its not the main factor in terms of actual weather in January. Sure it always has something to do with the weather worldwide but other factors at least for the next several weeks will be controlled more by the very negative AO which will keep the cold on this side of the planet. Even though we are in a neutral ENSO if you go by definition the past several weeks the colder water has made it more a very weak La Nina. Weak stages or either La Nina or El Nino or a neutral ENSO usually works out better for us in terms of winter weather. No not a perfect science by any means but we tend to get a variety of weather during the winter and around here that is about all we can ask for any winter season. By the 1st week of January the averages around here is highs in the upper 30's and lows in the lower-mid 20's. I do like the 4-4-4 with a neutral ENSO and 4 weeks of no chance to get snow like this week,4 weeks of either rain or snow and 4 weeks the pattern is great for snow. This also seems to work with temps and another reason I believe February is going to be milder as the main trough will be in the western states by then.

Over the past several years not many neutral ENSO's to go on so we will see if this still holds true.

[Bgoney]

I don’t know what’s going to eventually be the driver for JAN but to get an extended wintry period I sure want the MJO to be in the most favorable phases possible being a proven beneficial component to our winters
We can see the benefits of it getting to phase 7 with the colder temps arriving during the first week of the new year

[BookNerdCarp]

What is the name of Trevor's Weather Page on Facebook?

[tron777]

What is the name of Trevor's Weather Page on Facebook?

https://www.facebook.com/ovwcllc

[MVWxObserver]

CVG reached 48 and both DAY / CMH 44 on Christmas Eve.

[tpweather]

Merry Christmas to my weather family and their family!!! Still not many changes though the system this weekend is getting close to some heavier rain near us though still looks like folks south and east are in the best position. Concerning the much awaited cold attach on the USA. Still looks good and yes first attach near the New Year but this really gets us to a more normal early January weather. This current warm spell is delaying the really cold air by the 3-5 days but by the weekend of Jan 4th expect colder air to enter the USA. How cold and will there be snow is still questions that need to be answered. The pattern looks great for cold between say the 4th-20th but the jet stream will have a northern stream and a southern stream jet but can the do get together and dance during this period. If they decide to dance alone then clippers will be around and maybe some weaker systems moving through the USA. Normally a bigger storm or two will enter the picture with a big change and that is something to keep your eyes on in about 10 days or so. Heading to Wisconsin and really mild for them with rain expected Friday and Saturday before we come home on Sunday.

[MVWxObserver]

HAVE A BLESSED AND MERRY CHRISTMAS AV COMMUNITY FAMILY!!

Same to you and your family, Tim, and have a wonderful trip and time with your son and family in WI!

[MVWxObserver]

For those who use Rumpke trash service, they will NOT be operating Christmas Day and New Year's Day. Will be a one day pickup delay the rest of the week.

Currently 43 here in G'ville.

[tron777]

Merry Christmas to all of you and your families! I hope each one of you is having your best Christmas ever!



On to our weather and it is mild as expected and damp too with light misty rain / drizzle across the region. The days ahead look the same with more measurable rain occurring at times and at other times, drizzle. Probably some dry times mixing in too. As far as the new year goes, still too early to tell. Model solutions range from cold and dry, clipper pattern to cutters which means more up's and down's to cold and snowy and a winter lovers delight over the first 10 to 14 days of the month.

The MJO has been hovering around the Phase 5/6 border. We'd like to see it get on the move soon to see how long it takes for a possible Phase 7. Models indicate early January. Then from there does it stall, get into 8m or weaken into the neutral circle? That will have implications on how January is going to go.

I am leaning cold. Snow is always a crap shoot. We'll just have to wait and see how things evolve together. EPS and GEFS both show a +PNA, -EPO, AO- -NAO pattern kicking in within the first 1`0 days of the month. We'll see what the reality looks like as we get closer.

[MVWxObserver]

Merry Christmas to you and your family, too, Les!

Currently still holding at 43 here in G'ville.

[tron777]

48 here today with just a few hundredths of precip.