December 2024 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

wow it is -2 degrees now. holy cow

That's what clear skies, calm winds, and a snow pack will do for you.

[tron777]

Good morning all! 24 degrees here this morning as our warm up begins. Rain chances also begin tonight and last thru much of the upcoming week. The rain chances look light and do not look to be long lasting until we get to the weekend. Sunday looking wet at this time. Looking mild too with temps in the 40s and 50s for highs. All lows will be above freezing at CVG for a bit.

As we get into January, the GFS has a cutter and then has the cold coming in after 1/3. Foreign models still bring the cold in on NYD. So we are still seeing some differences there. If we look at the Ensembles the GEFS is by the 3rd and by the 2nd for the EPS. So all are within the 1-1 to 1-3 ballpark for the timing of the colder pattern to take place.

Individual storm systems are still too far away. I am looking for a big cutter around NYE or NYD to ushering in the colder pattern is my current thinking. Then, there looks to be a couple possible systems in the 1-3 to 1-8 time frame. I've seen cutters being modeled, OV snow events, as well as East Coast bombs. We just don't yet know how the jet stream pattern will be and how the MJO will play out. Then it comes down to timing and luck for snow events as you all know.

[Bgoney]

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[Bgoney]

All the above maps along with 850 wind anomalies, imo , means it’s highly likely models showing the MJO weakening in 7/8 in the medium range are on the right track

[tpweather]

Good Morning and really not much as changed concerning the long term. A nice warming trend this week which will bring some light rain at times but most of the week will be cloudy and blah. All signs point to the colder air returning and with this recent cold period I moved my return back about 3-4 days so instead of the 1st how bout the 4th or 5th before we really get into the colder air. To get there we can use a big storm or two and that is likely starting this weekend. We need these to switch the pattern. Models have problems with dense cold air and usually underestimates how cold and how far south it can go. Yes having snow cover to the north helps but what I have seen in the past is about 3-5 days before the cold actually arrives the models will get colder. This also changes how different systems play out in terms of precip type. Heading into the heart of winter helps as well and probably the one item that has concerned me is the cold in the polar regions this season have not been that cold compared to normal. Most year we will see those -50 - -70 readings quite often in Dec and Jan. Most of the time this season its stayed in the -30 - -40 range. Still plenty of cold but what effects will that have once we see that cold expand southward though south central Canada doing well with snow and more on the way later this week into the New Year.

I really don't have an answer because I am sure its happen before in the winter but I don't remember ever seeing a winter where the temps are that mild in the arctic regions for an extended period. Maybe this week it becomes colder as the polar vortex stays in place but not sure and will just wait and see.

[Bgoney]

Expected snow cover after the warmer temps through the 30th

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[tpweather]

Expected snow cover after the warmer temps through the 30th


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Yes and very good coverage for southern Canada and expect more in the next 8-10 days. Northern plains and upper mid-west need some help and hopefully a nice cutter or two will help that area. Over the past several years I have seen in some years no snow cover in parts of southern Canada this time of year so this map is much better in those terms