July 2023 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

I don't see too much going on per the guidance anyway tomorrow morning. 18z NAM and HRRR models show scattered action Wed afternoon and evening. Like 30% coverage tops. Pretty hit and miss.

[tpweather]

Les we are on the same page I am just a tad lower on temps for the end of the week. Next week we should get back to the pattern we have been in much of the summer though it may not be quite as wet especially since we will be in August.

[tpweather]

I don't see too much going on per the guidance anyway tomorrow morning. 18z NAM and HRRR models show scattered action Wed afternoon and evening. Like 30% coverage tops. Pretty hit and miss.

I believe we just to watch what happens earlier in the day and similar to Monday where the boundaries were near us and south. There is usually a cutoff and yes we may be to far south but something to watch as the day goes on.

[tron777]

Les we are on the same page I am just a tad lower on temps for the end of the week. Next week we should get back to the pattern we have been in much of the summer though it may not be quite as wet especially since we will be in August.

Agreed. I think we should get a heat advisory Thurs and Fri, the first of the season. Heat indices shouldn't have a problem getting into the 100s for a few hours both afternoons.

[tpweather]

Les we are on the same page I am just a tad lower on temps for the end of the week. Next week we should get back to the pattern we have been in much of the summer though it may not be quite as wet especially since we will be in August.

Agreed. I think we should get a heat advisory Thurs and Fri, the first of the season. Heat indices shouldn't have an issue getting into the 100s for a few hours both afternoons.

I agree though I am going with Friday and Saturday. Again like you mentioned only for a few hours but no matter what it will feel nasty out there later this week. If we get more rain the next day or two it may feel worse since the dew points should be higher. So do we want a temp of 96 and dew of 65 or a temp of 92 and a dew of 72.

[tron777]

Les we are on the same page I am just a tad lower on temps for the end of the week. Next week we should get back to the pattern we have been in much of the summer though it may not be quite as wet especially since we will be in August.

Agreed. I think we should get a heat advisory Thurs and Fri, the first of the season. Heat indices shouldn't have an issue getting into the 100s for a few hours both afternoons.

I agree though I am going with Friday and Saturday. Again like you mentioned only for a few hours but no matter what it will feel nasty out there later this week. If we get more rain the next day or two it may feel worse since the dew points should be higher. So do we want a temp of 96 and dew of 65 or a temp of 92 and a dew of 72.

Neither. I want us to get back to 78 / 52!

[tpweather]

Les we are on the same page I am just a tad lower on temps for the end of the week. Next week we should get back to the pattern we have been in much of the summer though it may not be quite as wet especially since we will be in August.

Agreed. I think we should get a heat advisory Thurs and Fri, the first of the season. Heat indices shouldn't have an issue getting into the 100s for a few hours both afternoons.

I agree though I am going with Friday and Saturday. Again like you mentioned only for a few hours but no matter what it will feel nasty out there later this week. If we get more rain the next day or two it may feel worse since the dew points should be higher. So do we want a temp of 96 and dew of 65 or a temp of 92 and a dew of 72.

Neither. I want us to get back to 78 / 52!

Lol and I second that and with the summers around here it just makes fall that much better.

[tron777]

I don't see too much going on per the guidance anyway tomorrow morning. 18z NAM and HRRR models show scattered action Wed afternoon and evening. Like 30% coverage tops. Pretty hit and miss.

I believe we just to watch what happens earlier in the day and similar to Monday where the boundaries were near us and south. There is usually a cutoff and yes we may be to far south but something to watch as the day goes on.

Per visible sat and PWATS... you can easily see where the boundary is right now. Over SW IN and West Kentucky.

[tpweather]

A nice area north of there with some showers and thundershowers in northern Missouri and heading east/southeast. When these die out where will the boundary be plus we have an upper system in the northern plains that is heading for the upper mid-west the next day or so and will that system sort of grab the moisture further south. Rather interesting for late July and beats dry and hot.

[tron777]

Les we are on the same page I am just a tad lower on temps for the end of the week. Next week we should get back to the pattern we have been in much of the summer though it may not be quite as wet especially since we will be in August.

Agreed. I think we should get a heat advisory Thurs and Fri, the first of the season. Heat indices shouldn't have an issue getting into the 100s for a few hours both afternoons.

I agree though I am going with Friday and Saturday. Again like you mentioned only for a few hours but no matter what it will feel nasty out there later this week. If we get more rain the next day or two it may feel worse since the dew points should be higher. So do we want a temp of 96 and dew of 65 or a temp of 92 and a dew of 72.

Neither. I want us to get back to 78 / 52!

Lol and I second that and with the summers around here it just makes fall that much better.

No doubt! Can't wait until we get a steady diet of 50s at night again and 70s during the day. Then 60s / 40s, etc etc. Almost time to get our annual ENSO & Winter thoughts thread going in the next week or so.

[MVWxObserver]

Looks like our camping trip at Brookville will be a sweatfest, especially on Thursday when we're setting everything up...Then we can just sit back and drink some coldies under the canopies as there are no big trees on our sites. Probably head down to the beach also. We'll be bringing lots of fans! Lol

Hi Joe,

My folks, sister and I went to Brookville Lake several times during our days in Hamilton, OH. We've never owned a boat but dad for many years had a Mercury outboard motor and he and I would go out on the lake about near the causeway bridge and fish for whatever ~ bluegill, catfish, sunfish e.g. etc. We all went to Acton Lake at Hueston Woods at times, too. Once at Brookville we camped in my paternal grandparents Avion trailer and during my earlier childhood years we camped in a canvas tent at Hueston Woods. Hung out at the HW Lodge, too, played in the arcade, swam, fished etc.

Hey Eric, we love Brookville as it's our default camping grounds, We'll be bringing campers/pop-ups but no boats. There will be a water balloon sling shot for the kids (and adults too) to keep cool! Lol
I know exactly where that causeway bridge is. Someone said that there are gar fish in that lake now.

Have a wonderful time, Joe and family! Gar fish sure are an interesting type.

[MVWxObserver]

Looks like our camping trip at Brookville will be a sweatfest, especially on Thursday when we're setting everything up...Then we can just sit back and drink some coldies under the canopies as there are no big trees on our sites. Probably head down to the beach also. We'll be bringing lots of fans! Lol

Joe enjoy your trip and not much for the heat but it beats a rainy vacation. Nice call on the July rainfall total

I am headed to an inland lake in Michigan for the weekend too!

Have a wonderful time, Les!

[MVWxObserver]

CVG reached 86, DAY 87 and CMH 84 today.

[MVWxObserver]

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[tron777]

Heat Advisory in effect from 12pm Thurs - 9pm Friday. Figured that was coming. Main severe threat today should be for our northern posters. For us near the River, not expecting much rain so be surprised if you see anything this far south., Then we bake!

[tpweather]

Good Morning and starting out nice and steamy this morning. Do we get hit with more showers and thundershowers later today and overnight is the big question. When you watch these complexes they tend to head towards the deeper moisture. Good example was yesterday with the complex over northern Missouri and it was heading east/southeast. It finally dived towards the moisture source which was in southern Illinois,southwest Ky and Tn. Guidance is not really showing much for the local area the next couple of days but I believe we need to keep an eye on the complex in Iowa this morning as it should die out but the outflow boundaries may fire up again over Illinois later today. If they form and that is key then they will try to head towards the higher moisture content which will southern half of Indiana,southern Ohio and much of Kentucky. That is why I am giving us a better shot of some storms late today and overnight than what the models may be showing. If the southern flow becomes to strong then chances are lower. So quite a bit going on for late July but also lots of questions still to be answered.

No matter what today will feel horrible and even if we don't hit 90 its going to feel like the mid and maybe upper 90's this afternoon. Convective temps should be met today and most likely Thursday but Friday and maybe Saturday that will be hard to hit so chances of a storm are far less and that can lead to temps in the 90's.

[tron777]

Tim... there were a few solutions that had an MCS diving south late this afternoon and evening into our forecast area but again, how far south would it make it before dying out is in question for us down here. I-70 on north stands a great chance to get wet in the next 10-18 hours. Hopefully our domes don't hold.

[tpweather]

Tim... there were a few solutions that had an MCS diving south late this afternoon and evening into our forecast area but again, how far south would it make it before dying out is in question for us down here. I-70 on north stands a great chance to get wet in the next 10-18 hours. Hopefully our domes don't hold.

I agree Les and if it dies out tonight will it fire in the 4a-9a on Thursday morning. We know these storms like to form in the 4-9p and 4a-9a. Still cannot rule out later Thursday as well but probably further north is the call and then Friday looks very unlikely and Saturday probably north of us depending on the front but they tend to slow down once you get the heat established for a few days. Was going to mow but decided to let hit go because I mowed it 5 days ago and though it probably could be mowed I thought it was better to keep it a little high with the heat heading in here.

[tron777]

Tim... there were a few solutions that had an MCS diving south late this afternoon and evening into our forecast area but again, how far south would it make it before dying out is in question for us down here. I-70 on north stands a great chance to get wet in the next 10-18 hours. Hopefully our domes don't hold.

I agree Les and if it dies out tonight will it fire in the 4a-9a on Thursday morning. We know these storms like to form in the 4-9p and 4a-9a. Still cannot rule out later Thursday as well but probably further north is the call and then Friday looks very unlikely and Saturday probably north of us depending on the front but they tend to slow down once you get the heat established for a few days. Was going to mow but decided to let hit go because I mowed it 5 days ago and though it probably could be mowed I thought it was better to keep it a little high with the heat heading in here.

I like the call you have outlined Tim. I think north is the way to go. Our best chance for Cincy is today and it isn't a high chance. Similar for early Thurs, if any, then I think late Sat or more likely on Sat night into Sunday with that front that finally cools us down a tad.

[tpweather]

I know one thing for sure the moisture is increasing. My ankles are heavy today and that tells me the moisture has increased overnight.

[tron777]

I know one thing for sure the moisture is increasing. My ankles are heavy today and that tells me the moisture has increased overnight.

Most definitely! Dewpoint at CVG is now 69 and 70+ is probably likely coming up. PWATS have risen from yesterday too.

[tron777]

81 with a dew now of 73 as of 10am at CVG.

[tron777]

12Z NAM has a small chance for us around midnight tonight and again Thurs night. Highest chances continue to be for our northern posters. 12Z HRRR shows small chances every now and again. This afternoon, overnight, and Thurs night. Chances again are not very high down towards the south.

SPC has shifted the severe risk a tad to the south again. Marginal risk now covers Boone, Kenton, Campbell co's on north. Where before, it was N Cincy burbs on north. We shall see as usual how things shake out. Better shear is back across ILL at this time despite some very good CAPE for us attm. Lack of shear / forcing will limit convection IMO.

[tpweather]

Good Afternoon and yuck is a nice word for today. Seeing a line of showers from Indy down to Evansville. Will this continue east or die out. Again the overnight models and mid-day models have not really been on the same page day after day so not easy getting a forecast exactly correct. At noon sitting at temp of 85 and dew of 74 so the heat index is already 93. Will the line of showers to the west provide enough cloud cover this afternoon to stop temps from getting to 90 and even so the dew points will make it feel nasty. We have the ridge trying to build in but the eastern trough that has been around for sometime does not want to give up. Still looks like it will finally happen Friday and Saturday but until then we must keep the chance of rain in the forecast.

[tron777]

The 12Z GFS gives us a shot overnight into early tomorrow morning. That activity to our west is very weak. We'll see if it can hold together for a dust settler. Otherwise, yeah... we may not hit 90 because of it for today.