Absolute Vorticity

Same deal with the 12Z EPS. Held the energy back in the SW too long.

42 today at CVG, 44 here. Down into the U30s already as the sun sets. So for now... looking highly likely for rain on Sunday. Then we get cold again. Still not ruling out flurries on Monday depending on the flow off of Lake Michigan. Then... we moderate and showers look to move in on Thanksgiving Day. For Black Friday into the holiday weekend... still up in the air on that. 18Z GFS this evening is showing the same deal. No phasing. Still plenty of time to see how this one goes. I still think the big storm, idea is valid. Not saying a snow storm for us, just that the phased idea has a shot due to the -NAO and +PNA.

The GOA and and the whole North America pac coast relentlessly get hammered in the extended , which has been going on for quite some time. Near the end the trough drops down the coast to hopefully get more of California in the action.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Nov 19, 2021 8:20 pm The GOA and and the whole North America pac coast relentlessly get hammered in the extended , which has been going on for quite some time. Near the end the trough drops down the coast to hopefully get more of California in the action.

The one persistent thing that stands out is the blocking. -NAO is there for the entire animation and I think overall, it will remain for several more weeks. Once the block is established, it'll stick around for a while, esp one that is so strong. It's just a shame that the Pacific is in a bad state. We've got the -WPO but that EPO just doesn't look like it's going to go negative anytime soon despite models showing it from time to time. Like last winter (and yet so far this Fall) it really hasn't happened. This is one reason why we are seeing such cold weather in AK. The good news... cold air and snow cover are building nicely in Canada. We just need something on the Pacific side to change and it really won't take much. We've got several players on the field that I really like, but we're not quite there yet where we need to be.

Good Saturday to you all! A nice day today with increasing clouds and temps cracking 50. Rain rolls in later on tonight and continues through a good chunk of your Sunday. Rainfall amounts of around a 1/2" are a good bet. Then we turn cold Mon and Tues of next week. Attm, the models are not phasing the two jet streams so some rain on Thanksgiving with a cold frontal passage is the most likely solution should the models hold. I'll give it until tomorrow to see what happens. I was really thinking that due to the blocking we'd have that more phased solution to be correct, but it just doesn't look to be the case. The Pacific pattern is not very good as Bgoney has been alluding too. That is a huge problem and continues to be a huge problem for a while unfortunately. The good news... better weather for traveling but not good news for us snow weenies.

Another issue too that I am beginning to notice in addition to the +EPO (which we have already discussed), the MJO maybe coming out of the neutral circle now for late Nov and into the first week of Dec. However, it looks to be Phase 6 and 7. Those are warm phases this time of year as we start to get closer to winter. Phase 6 is a torch for much of the country with Phase 7 having a cold N. Plains but a SE ridge. So we would be in that battle zone meaning we warm up, get rain, then cool down. Wash, rinse, and repeat. Hopefully things change as we roll thru December. But for now the next 3 weeks are not looking very impressive for a nice sustainable winter like pattern. Sure, we'll have a few cold days throw in like Mon and Tues of next week for example, but when you get the cold, you need a storm to go along with it. That's the issue. I wish I had better news folks but my early start to winter call, I'm afraid is going down in flames. I sure hope Tim brings back some good luck with him from Hilton Head.

As a result, the Tellies aren't very good either. You can see here that we may lose the blocking (AO and NAO) once we roll into December. Sigh...


Despite my best efforts to try and correctly long range and seasonal forecast, it is so hard to predict the chaos theory which is exactly what our atmosphere is. Mother Nature will always win. And as forecasters, at the end of the day, we generally will lose. Meteorology is a very tough science and forecasting is very difficult to do the longer out in time you go. Chaos reigns supreme.

Good Afternoon and made it back today. Wonderful weather in Hilton Head though my golf game not so much but was a great time. I do have some thoughts on the upcoming pattern and will post later today. Glad to be back though it looks like a normal mid-late November outside plus I have leaves to rake in a few days.

Tim, welcome back.



12z EPS through the 4th December. Just no sustained western ridge to amplify any low pressure through November. Enough to push a few fronts through but that's it

Welcome back, Tim! Glad you're home.

0.24" here so far today with a temp of 41 degrees.

A true November morning. Ugly, damp, and chilly. Waiting on the heavier rain to move in only light so far.

Up to 0.28" now, CVG 0.23" as of 10am.

0.33" now... CVG 0.30"

Welcome back Tim!

Currently 41 here in Greenville.

GFS in a battle with itself in the long range. 0Z run versus 12z for Dec 5

Good Afternoon, tons of things going on with the pattern as you would expect later in November. Starting with this week and yes 2 chances of snow with the first late Thanksgiving night or early Friday as a cold front moves through and we may have enough left over moisture for some flurries or maybe a dusting of light snow. The next shot is next weekend because the southwest,central and southern plains have been very mid this fall and some of the warmer temps should try and make inroads in our area. A clipper system will also form and head southeast. This clipper should be the strongest of the year because of the temp difference. I expect some accumulation in the Ohio Valley but way to early for totals.

Then the week of Nov 29th we warm up and that is perfect. The cold and snow have hit much of Canada finally with some temps nearing -50 which is cold though not record cold for them. We need that for a better setup in Dec. With the warming I expect a larger storm of two hitting the USA the week of the 29th. This means rain and we get mild with a couple of low 60's possible. I believe the storm will usher in much colder air in here and starting the week of Dec 4th I expect colder air to invade. I know Mother Nature likes to delay pattern changes and that is true but that is what I see at this point.

Les, 41 and rain is near the 38 and rain I love to see this time of year.

I'd like to see more model support for that that little clipper system for next weekend. OP GFS shows it and a few Ens members, but not many. CMC has it but too weak and too far NEW with the track over the Lakes.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 21, 2021 1:13 pm I'd like to see more model support for that that little clipper system for next weekend. OP GFS shows it and a few Ens members, but not many. CMC has it but too weak and too far NEW with the track over the Lakes.

Hey Les and you know me and the models are way down on my list of making forecasts. I just try and look at the pattern evolving and then make a forecast. I love to see the models show what I believe may happen and when that happens my confidence goes way up. So for next weekend models and I are not on the same page but I can only predict what I expect to happen and not the models.

Looks like the Euro has it too but it's way too south and weak. It basically shears out before it gets here. Models aren't going to sort out the track and strength for a while.

0.41" here total. CVG 0.38"

For the long range and the first week of Dec. I don't see any a big change in the pattern just yet. Higher heights in the GOA, Canadian west coast and points northward are hard to come by, as they have been for 6 weeks or so. BC has seen severe flooding over this time. The ridge in the west that develops over the western states off and on , is weak and flat. We may see cooler temps during the first week of Dec . but only slightly less than normal at best for the OV , because of no motivation for the cold in Alaska to move deeper into the lower 48, yet. That troughiness in the GOA needs to go once we hit Dec.

Pretty sad for snow much of anywhere in the next 2 weeks over the Lower 48. Canadian snow pack building nicely though.

My gauge picked up .30" for Sun.

Good morning all! A short week and school week for some. Hope it is a good time with family and friends for all! Cold today and Tues. We warm up Wed with rain on Thurs, probably ending as some flakes Thurs night. Cold again for Black Friday and next weekend should be dry at this time.

Thanksgiving Day local climo from the boys:

https://www.weather.gov/iln/cvg_thanksgiving_climo

Good Morning and the clouds kept temps up a few degrees last night. How cold do we get on Tuesday morning and will there be a few upper teens in those normally colder areas? I know folks in the weather world always get nervous when there is very little snow to talk about but in reality its only November 22nd. We are fine here and if two months from today and the same pattern is in place then I worry. The place that really needs to worry is the Rocky mountains. November and March are the two biggest months in terms of snowfall. The ski resorts are not looking good as the southwest ridge is keeping them high and dry.

Looked at the models this morning and my clipper is nowhere it be found for next weekend. Give it a few more days and see if that push of warmer air helps in creating some snow before it gets mild. Next week should be the calm before the storm as we could see a few days in the low 60's and no rainfall but expect storminess and much colder temps arriving for the 1st full week of December. That is when the polar jet and stj should start to work together and change the mild and dry landscape to a much colder and wet landscape for the eastern 2/3rds of the country. Usually this will start with a bigger storm in the central USA that throws snow into the northern and central plains and upper midwest with a strong cold front and then will their be a second system to follow up that can bring snows further south and east.

The fall season has been a good 7-10 days behind normal in terms of snow and cold this season as we saw in Canada just a month ago folks were wondering if the snow and cold was ever going to arrive and it has with a bang as temps were some 15-20 degrees above normal in early November to well below normal.

Still very excited about and nice start to winter which includes snow and cold and the current set up is just fine. A week from today I would love to see the extended forecast and I believe for us winter lovers that we will be very happy.

Good morning Tim! Nice to see you back.

If the MJO forecast is correct, we will be mild for the 1st week of Dec but could see changes after that or at least by mid month should the MJO continue past phase 7 and not die out in the neutral circle. That remains to be seen but most models, if correct, are calling for Phases 6 then 7 to end Nov and begin Dec so thus the mild call.