Absolute Vorticity

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Good morning all! Wow! 4-6" of rain has fallen South of the Metro over the last 48 hours. My area totals:

CVG - 0.47"
Me - 0.71"
Boone Co mesonet - 1.06"

Last chance for a while is today. Good luck to all!

Well folks... once we get past another bout of summer like temps in the 80s with dry weather, the pattern is looking more and more likely that it will change to Fall. I mean real Fall weather. +PNA / -EPO combo looks to make an appearance. Whether it is transitionary or sticks around a while remains to be seen. All three global models are showing it now and even the Ensembles as well. Timing wise... with it being a week plus out, it can change but right now it is looking like next weekend Oct 7-8th. We shall see what happens with this but confidence is definitely growing at this time. I am not seeing a frost or anything but 60s for highs, 40s for lows, that kind of thing is gaining traction.

Getting more downpours and thunder this morning! Will post rain total later once it all winds down.

Good Morning and the trend yesterday was to have much of the heavier rain overnight to the south and that ended up being the case. This was not a drought buster by any means and some folks got the short end of stick once again. I agree Les fall is knocking on the door but we are not letting her in for about another 7-10 days. Concerning frost and again I am sure once we are in the new pattern some outlying areas will have some frost but at this point an overall freeze is not in the cards but my guess once we get the first shot of colder air we warm up briefly and then another shot towards the 22-26 will most likely bring a decent frost. Tons of leaves fell once again so another 2 bags or so will be used this weekend. Still waiting for the cooler period to do a fire pit one last time this season

A few more showers have popped up with embedded heavier downpours and we will continue to see that today with decreasing activity once the low moves off to the East by late this afternoon and evening. More of the same, some will cash in, some will not.

As far as temps go, cloudy skies and some fog too early Fri will give way to some sun in the afternoon. I like the U70s for highs. Wall to wall sunshine this weekend with highs in the 80-83 degree range. The low 80s continue early next week with plenty of sunshine. We will see the mid 80s again by Wed and Thurs. We could see the low 80s on Friday, but that will depend on the timing of a strong cold front which may usher in the pattern change we have been discussing as of late. Lows thru this forecast period will be in the 50s to perhaps low 60s in urban areas.

0.64" additional rain this morning with two day total of 1.20"

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 28, 2023 10:21 am 0.64" additional rain this morning with two day total of 1.20"

Awesome! Glad to see some locations in our northern counties did well. As far as I can tell CMH still got the shaft and our Eastern counties as well unfortunately.

Next week inland Alaska will see its first polar front come through and maybe some snow as well. No doubt that time of year and Oct is a big month for snow in Alaska.

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Sep 28, 2023 3:00 pm Next week inland Alaska will see its first polar front come through and maybe some snow as well. No doubt that time of year and Oct is a big month for snow in Alaska.

I saw NWS Fairbanks talking about that yesterday Tim. Like you, it puts a smile on my face!

Event total at CVG is 0.52" Looks like we are beginning to wind this event down. A few more scattered showers are possible but most won't see too much more rain. A wide range of totals from nothing to 6" across our forum coverage area. Watch for clouds and fog tomorrow but the sun should return by Fri afternoon. AM Fog for Sat then sunny! 80s begin this weekend and last until Wed or Thurs. of next week. The timing of the end of the next week front that ushers in much cooler air is still being worked out on the models. It could come in as early as Thurs (GFS) or Fri (Euro). Otherwise by next weekend, Fall looks to arrive provided nothing changes between now and then.

The latest drought map introduces the D1 category or moderate drought over a good chunk of the area. No surprise at all. Remember they sample the ground on Tues then post the map on Thurs so this weeks rains really weren't factored in. Next weeks map should factor that in but with the streak of 80s coming up, we might just break even if you will so next weeks map could look similar to this one. We shall see!

Last batch of rain moved through - up to 1.11” on the day and 1.67” event total

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I'm waiting until later this evening to give my rain total until the last showers here in Darke Co gyrate out.

UPDATE at 9:30 pm ~~2 day combo of .70" in my gauge. Thank you Lord!

Dense Fog advisory for the entire area until 10am. Otherwise once the fog mixes out, we will see a nice afternoon with temps in the middle 70s, perhaps U70s in a few spots. 80 or so this weekend!

Dense Fog advisory has been extended until noon. Rightfully so! Looking out my window it is still very foggy.

Most of the fog looks to be gone now but that stubborn stratus deck is still hanging tough! Only 66 at CVG as of 1pm as a result. If the sun doesn't break through, it maybe tough to get into the lower 70s. ILN has lowered highs to the mid 70s which can still occur but it will depend on when the sun breaks out. Current visible satellite pic:

The sun is finally breaking out! We'll see how warm we can get. Mid 70s should be doable.

73 now at CVG so another degree or two should about do it for today. Look for fog again overnight and tomorrow morning but it should not be as dense and as widespread as it was today. I hope... Temps should get near 80 tomorrow as long as the fog mixes out faster.

72 here today, 74 per the CVG climate report.