Absolute Vorticity

StormTalk! https://www.wave3.com/2021/04/02/goode- ... ther-blog/

So check out the 12z NAM QPF for today....when is the last time you saw the entire country this dry....in April!

12Z GFS brings in some light showers as early as Tues evening now. I think the slower Euro is the way to go esp with some blocking developing.

Its been an awesome winter for the NH as far as snow is concerned, well above average and still more to come for EU as a return to well below normal temps and snows for them in the coming weeks and the western NA to score again also.

I'm interested to see if that will help slow the summer ice melt season somewhat.

12Z Euro keeps us dry until Thurs morning of next week on this run.

48 here today. One more night below freezing then we moderate,

Currently 37 here in G'ville and progged for 25 on Sat morning.

The mother of all tornado outbreaks anniversary April 3/4 1974. Some awesome reads from Louisville that need to be read if you're interested. The last one(and a few others) goes into detail of the meteorology behind the setup. Amazing stats that are mind boggling. 30 , yes 30 , F4 or F5 tornadoes

https://www.weather.gov/lmk/april31974_ ... al_reports

More details


https://www.weather.gov/lmk/april31974_meteorology

31 here and at CVG this morning so not bad. 60 or so today and U60s perhaps 70 for Easter Sunday. Enjoy it folks. Wonderful wx until we get to Wed or Thurs depending on the model you choose.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sat Apr 03, 2021 7:08 am The mother of all tornado outbreaks anniversary April 3/4 1974. Some awesome reads from Louisville that need to be read if you're interested. The last one(and a few others) goes into detail of the meteorology behind the setup. Amazing stats that are mind boggling. 30 , yes 30 , F4 or F5 tornadoes

https://www.weather.gov/lmk/april31974_ ... al_reports

More details


https://www.weather.gov/lmk/april31974_meteorology

I found ILN's write up on the event locally.

https://www.weather.gov/iln/19740403

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sat Apr 03, 2021 7:08 am The mother of all tornado outbreaks anniversary April 3/4 1974. Some awesome reads from Louisville that need to be read if you're interested. The last one(and a few others) goes into detail of the meteorology behind the setup. Amazing stats that are mind boggling. 30 , yes 30 , F4 or F5 tornadoes

https://www.weather.gov/lmk/april31974_ ... al_reports

More details


https://www.weather.gov/lmk/april31974_meteorology

Yes this is my number 1 weather event of all time and though I love winter weather it beats out my favorite winter events. I was 12 at the time just remember being outside and watching they sky and seeing funnel cloud after funnel cloud dropping out of the sky. Most of course remained in the sky where I lived except one about 3 miles or so to the southwest was on the ground. Of course with only 4 channels on the tv back then coverage was not what you would see today. Also it was one of the hottest days I ever remember for early spring and the humidity was off the charts and you knew something that morning that this was not your normal day. Sad to see all the deaths during this time and sure if that occurred today the warnings may have saved some lives but F4 and F5's can wipe out most structures.

The winds last night turned to the south earlier than I thought would happen and that help keep temps up though we did fall below 32. Bgoney made a great point about above average snowfall in the NH and something we have been talking about for months. I still believe the late start to the winter season in Siberia was a big factor as they got their heavy snows in November instead of October which led to a very cold season even for them this winter. Was a different winter and I believe sometimes we need to look at more than just what we used to consider a normal pattern for a La Nina,El Nino because this past season was not a normal La Nina though it had a few periods where the weather acted that way but believe the Siberia cold controlled much of the winter season and still working its magic as Alaska in a very cold and stormy pattern and yes they get snows most Aprils but this time much colder air than normal.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Apr 02, 2021 2:32 pm 12Z Euro keeps us dry until Thurs morning of next week on this run.

I believe late Tuesday night or Wednesday we could get a shower but I believe the main action waits until Thursday locally. Les further north where you will be may have a greater chance later Tuesday and Wednesday. Starting Thursday through Sunday I believe a very active period and though it won't rain all the time chances everyday will occur. Bad timing for Les and hopefully gets missed each day but for us locally I love seeing the rainfall as we are in the rainy season. BTW the southwest USA starting early with the heat and 100 degrees in certain areas possible and though they can get over 100 this time of year its usually late April or early May before you start to see triple digits plus its the end of the rainy season for them so this heat is not good at all.

tpweather wrote: ↑Sat Apr 03, 2021 8:34 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Apr 02, 2021 2:32 pm 12Z Euro keeps us dry until Thurs morning of next week on this run.

I believe late Tuesday night or Wednesday we could get a shower but I believe the main action waits until Thursday locally. Les further north where you will be may have a greater chance later Tuesday and Wednesday. Starting Thursday through Sunday I believe a very active period and though it won't rain all the time chances everyday will occur. Bad timing for Les and hopefully gets missed each day but for us locally I love seeing the rainfall as we are in the rainy season. BTW the southwest USA starting early with the heat and 100 degrees in certain areas possible and though they can get over 100 this time of year its usually late April or early May before you start to see triple digits plus its the end of the rainy season for them so this heat is not good at all.

I'm leaving for Erie on the 10th so hoping that cut off low or closed low, remains south of the Lakes. Models are starting to look better in time with the blocking coming in weaker then it once was. Hope that continues to be the case in future runs.

For next week... Small chance Tues night and Wed from the GFS but even it holds off the main wave / cold front until Thursday so can't argue with that slower timing.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Apr 03, 2021 8:43 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Sat Apr 03, 2021 8:34 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Apr 02, 2021 2:32 pm 12Z Euro keeps us dry until Thurs morning of next week on this run.

I believe late Tuesday night or Wednesday we could get a shower but I believe the main action waits until Thursday locally. Les further north where you will be may have a greater chance later Tuesday and Wednesday. Starting Thursday through Sunday I believe a very active period and though it won't rain all the time chances everyday will occur. Bad timing for Les and hopefully gets missed each day but for us locally I love seeing the rainfall as we are in the rainy season. BTW the southwest USA starting early with the heat and 100 degrees in certain areas possible and though they can get over 100 this time of year its usually late April or early May before you start to see triple digits plus its the end of the rainy season for them so this heat is not good at all.

I'm leaving for Erie on the 10th so hoping that cut off low or closed low, remains south of the Lakes. Models are starting to look better in time with the blocking coming in weaker then it once was. Hope that continues to be the case in future runs.

For next week... Small chance Tues night and Wed from the GFS but even it holds off the main wave / cold front until Thursday so can't argue with that slower timing.

Sorry Les I thought you were leaving earlier so yes I agree you may be okay.

tpweather wrote: ↑Sat Apr 03, 2021 8:49 am Sorry Les I though you were leaving earlier so yes I agree you may be okay.

All good Tim! I think the weekend might be tough but after that, it might straighten out... fingers crossed lol

I was 11 when the April 3rd-4th Super Outbreak occurred and lived in Cincy. My Dad was employed at the Cincy Children's Home in Oakley where he, Mom, my sister and myself resided in an apartment on the Home grounds. The civil defense siren blared from the (then) nearby Eastwood Elementary School (which is now an industrial park) on Duck Creek Rd that my sister and myself attended. A very long late afternoon and evening as the four of us along with two other Home employees kept company with each other via the large basement in the combined apartment / administration and kitchen depts / dining hall bldg. We all munched on cheese-filled pretzels for supper. I did some homework while sitting in my Radio Flyer red wagon. Dad's transistor radio crackled with tornado report updates. One of those events that sparked my interest in meteorology and thunderstorms / severe weather.

Currently 50 here in G'ville and going for around 60 later.

Took the kids fishing yesterday for a couple of hours then helped my brother cut down a peach tree. Good wood for my smoker! They are all coming over for an Easter Egg hunt and dinner. Happy Easter to all of you! Enjoy the beautiful day today with your family.

A BLESSED EASTER AND HAPPY RESURRECTION SUNDAY, EVERYWXONE!!

Currently 54 here in G'ville and going for around 70 later.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Apr 04, 2021 9:27 am Took the kids fishing yesterday for a couple of hours then helped my brother cut down a peach tree. Good wood for my smoker! They are all coming over for an Easter Egg hunt and dinner. Happy Easter to all of you! Enjoy the beautiful day today with your family.


Untitled.png

Happy Easter Les to you and your family, Bro!!

Was Harper, Colton and Cooper able to hook anything yesterday?

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Sun Apr 04, 2021 10:49 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Apr 04, 2021 9:27 am Took the kids fishing yesterday for a couple of hours then helped my brother cut down a peach tree. Good wood for my smoker! They are all coming over for an Easter Egg hunt and dinner. Happy Easter to all of you! Enjoy the beautiful day today with your family.


Untitled.png

Happy Easter Les to you and your family, Bro!!

Was Harper, Colton and Cooper able to hook anything yesterday?

Happy Easter to you and your fam, Bro!

Cooper fished for a while but the other two weren't interested. My Brother caught a few small crappie and blue gull but nothing major. An awesome day today... 73 right now.

Happy Easter everyone!

Good morning all! We got some nice weather thru about Wed then rain moves in. We will see off and on rain chances Thurs thru this weekend. Probably into next week too. I don't think we'll get that stalled cut off look though. Models are wanting to keep the blocking stronger over E Canada so that keeps us warmer, but rain and storm chances are still going to be there. Fronts can't push all the way thru thanks to the blocking. The front comes in and we get wet. Next low comes in right behind it like a day or two later. So the pattern looks active down the road, with timing and rain coverage still to be determined each day. Until then... the 70s for highs look good for the next 3 days.

Good Morning Les and your forecast looks good. No doubt its going to get busier and very happy as we need the showers and thundershowers this time of year. Concerning another cold outbreak and that looks unlikely as temps in northern Canada have risen over the past several days and with more and more sun up that way not expecting extreme cold up there but just their normal type of cold so any decent cold fronts would only bring a normal type of coolness not like the recent cold weather. Going to start and look at long term forecasts to see if their are any decent clues on what type of summer we may have this year.