Rocktober 2023 Weather Discussion

[airwolf76]

it has been in the upper 70s here. pretty dang warm for October but its different this time of year and also you can see signs of fall everywhere you look now

[MVWxObserver]

CVG reached 84, CMH 86 and DAY 87 on Mon.

[tron777]

Good morning all! Mid to upper 80s the next 2 days. For Wed... 88 is the record at CVG from 2007. It'll be close. Then we get showers late Thurs and Fri with the cold front. Perhaps a shower Sat morning with windy conditions. Temps drop into the 50s to low 60s this weekend with lows in the mid 30s to the low 40s esp Sun and Mon mornings of next week. Frost potential is there as Tim has mentioned and it always comes down to clear skies and light winds. We shall see!

[tpweather]

Good morning all! Mid to upper 80s the next 2 days. For Wed... 88 is the record at CVG from 2007. It'll be close. Then we get showers late Thurs and Fri with the cold front. Perhaps a shower Sat morning with windy conditions. Temps drop into the 50s to low 60s this weekend with lows in the mid 30s to the low 40s esp Sun and Mon mornings of next week. Frost potential is there as Tim has mentioned and it always comes down to clear skies and light winds. We shall see!

Good morning Les!! The forecast looks great and I agree about getting near the record on Wednesday. Strong cold front heading this way and you get the boost of warmth ahead of the front and that could lead to a near record on Wednesday. I called the 80's over after Wednesday and really the only day that worries me is Thursday as we are still southeast of the front. I believe enough clouds will keep temps mainly in the 74-77 range but for some reason we stay sunny all day it could touch 80. The weekend looks like a true autumn weekend with clouds,sun and wind on Saturday with temps a few degrees of 60 and lows in the mid 30's-lower 40's. That is my kind of weather and with the leaves changing colors its time to hit the pumpkin patches or just drive down some old country roads and look at the beauty of autumn.

[tron777]

Good morning all! Mid to upper 80s the next 2 days. For Wed... 88 is the record at CVG from 2007. It'll be close. Then we get showers late Thurs and Fri with the cold front. Perhaps a shower Sat morning with windy conditions. Temps drop into the 50s to low 60s this weekend with lows in the mid 30s to the low 40s esp Sun and Mon mornings of next week. Frost potential is there as Tim has mentioned and it always comes down to clear skies and light winds. We shall see!

Good morning Les!! The forecast looks great and I agree about getting near the record on Wednesday. Strong cold front heading this way and you get the boost of warmth ahead of the front and that could lead to a near record on Wednesday. I called the 80's over after Wednesday and really the only day that worries me is Thursday as we are still southeast of the front. I believe enough clouds will keep temps mainly in the 74-77 range but for some reason we stay sunny all day it could touch 80. The weekend looks like a true autumn weekend with clouds,sun and wind on Saturday with temps a few degrees of 60 and lows in the mid 30's-lower 40's. That is my kind of weather and with the leaves changing colors its time to hit the pumpkin patches or just drive down some old country roads and look at the beauty of autumn.

Thanks Tim. I like the upper 70s as well for Thurs but as you said, it will be close! Looking ahead... this new pattern that we have coming in starting this weekend with the blocking, may stick around longer then I thought. I checked the EPS and GEFS and as a whole, this pattern continues out into the Day 10-15 range. I wasn't expecting it to hold. I thought we'd get a decent warm up then another shot of cool air but that is looking less likely at this time. Something else of interest (and this maybe a reason why the blocking pattern holds for a while) and that is because of TS Philippe. Remember I said that it would be a fish storm? I might be dead wrong on that. The storm is weak and has remained further to the south then expected. So once it makes the northward turn as it gets captured by the Eastern US trough, it may actually get pulled more to the West and impact SE Canada or even on some models the NE CONUS as an extra tropical system. That heat engine would act to pump up the blocking even more (-NAO) and reinforce the pattern we already have in place. Something to watch going forward.

[tpweather]

The upcoming pattern is one we would love to see in the winter. Not the perfect pattern but one that has cold fronts come through often which is a good way to keep the cold having staying power. Les I saw your post about the tropical system and that could pump up the blocking and would be on in the area just to the west and that could lead to more beautiful mild days and cool and sometimes cold nights. The tropical system off the west coast of Mexico still shows up and my guess is it just sort of gets weaken by the mountains in Mexico but just sort of sits most likely send some moisture northward into the south central area of the USA. Will this promote a tropical system in the GOM and not sure though the waters are boiling.

[tron777]

The upcoming pattern is one we would love to see in the winter. Not the perfect pattern but one that has cold fronts come through often which is a good way to keep the cold having staying power. Les I saw your post about the tropical system and that could pump up the blocking and would be on in the area just to the west and that could lead to more beautiful mild days and cool and sometimes cold nights. The tropical system off the west coast of Mexico still shows up and my guess is it just sort of gets weaken by the mountains in Mexico but just sort of sits most likely send some moisture northward into the south central area of the USA. Will this promote a tropical system in the GOM and not sure though the waters are boiling.

Tim, the GFS continues to show that tropical system in the Gulf coming from the Pacific (I assume that is currently TS Lidia???) Not sure if it's that one or a different one. Anyway, the GFS and CMC are trying to cook up something. Euro wants no part of it attm. It hangs up a front down in the Gulf for a while and that is another way to get a tropical system to form closer to home especially this time of year. We'll see... you just never know.

[tpweather]

The upcoming pattern is one we would love to see in the winter. Not the perfect pattern but one that has cold fronts come through often which is a good way to keep the cold having staying power. Les I saw your post about the tropical system and that could pump up the blocking and would be on in the area just to the west and that could lead to more beautiful mild days and cool and sometimes cold nights. The tropical system off the west coast of Mexico still shows up and my guess is it just sort of gets weaken by the mountains in Mexico but just sort of sits most likely send some moisture northward into the south central area of the USA. Will this promote a tropical system in the GOM and not sure though the waters are boiling.

Tim, the GFS continues to show that tropical system in the Gulf coming from the Pacific (I assume that is currently TS Lidia???) Not sure if it's that one or a different one. Anyway, the GFS and CMC are trying to cook up something. Euro wants no part of it attm. It hangs up a front down in the Gulf for a while and that is another way to get a tropical system to form closer to home especially this time of year. We'll see... you just never know.

It looks like the Euro has the system south of Mexico and really that makes more sense imo. We always need to watch fronts that make it to the gulf coast and stall and that can be a nice breeding ground for a tropical system. I believe if we see this pattern in the winter several really nice storms form though many would hit the southeast and go up the east coast. Yes we would be in the colder area but will we be close enough to get a decent snow. Hopefully this is a pattern that continues to throw upper systems coming across the country and hopefully hook up with a storm to the south.

[tron777]

The upcoming pattern is one we would love to see in the winter. Not the perfect pattern but one that has cold fronts come through often which is a good way to keep the cold having staying power. Les I saw your post about the tropical system and that could pump up the blocking and would be on in the area just to the west and that could lead to more beautiful mild days and cool and sometimes cold nights. The tropical system off the west coast of Mexico still shows up and my guess is it just sort of gets weaken by the mountains in Mexico but just sort of sits most likely send some moisture northward into the south central area of the USA. Will this promote a tropical system in the GOM and not sure though the waters are boiling.

Tim, the GFS continues to show that tropical system in the Gulf coming from the Pacific (I assume that is currently TS Lidia???) Not sure if it's that one or a different one. Anyway, the GFS and CMC are trying to cook up something. Euro wants no part of it attm. It hangs up a front down in the Gulf for a while and that is another way to get a tropical system to form closer to home especially this time of year. We'll see... you just never know.

It looks like the Euro has the system south of Mexico and really that makes more sense imo. We always need to watch fronts that make it to the gulf coast and stall and that can be a nice breeding ground for a tropical system. I believe if we see this pattern in the winter several really nice storms form though many would hit the southeast and go up the east coast. Yes we would be in the colder area but will we be close enough to get a decent snow. Hopefully this is a pattern that continues to throw upper systems coming across the country and hopefully hook up with a storm to the south.

I agree Tim. Having a frontal boundary stalling in the Gulf with the potential for something to develop does make much more sense in October / November. So something to watch as we get closer to Day 10 and beyond. Meanwhile, I'm with you for the winter. This could be a very nice pattern for the Eastern CONUS. The pattern could help the East Coast if it persists as you mentioned but also with the warm waters in the Atlantic, maybe the Western Atlantic Ridge will have more of a say and maybe, just maybe, we'll get more inland runners versus coastal huggers. Definitely something to watch in the months ahead. The position of the trough over the East will be of the utmost importance.

[tron777]

[tron777]

Haha! BG put my comment on the GFS on the video.

[tron777]

83 already as of 1pm at CVG. 12Z GFS continues to show a parade of upper lows with the blocking pattern in place throughout its run diving in from the NW overtop the Western Ridge.

[tpweather]

Good afternoon and quite the warm one today. Looking at the models and mainly for the tropical system that should head somewhere in Mexico. The gfs is similar to what it had yesterday but the CMC more towards what the Euro showed and its further south. I believe once you head in southern Mexico it becomes flatter and the mountains do less to tear up a tropical system. Saying that it does not mean you don't have a leftover low pressure that can gain energy once again has it heads into the GOM.

Example that happens quite often in the fall through early spring is systems heading onto the west coast that are strong and I look at the winds quite often to see how strong a system may end up being. Then the low crosses the Rockies and loses energy for a brief period before getting strong again as you usually have a big temp difference in the plains.

[tron777]

12Z Euro got a little frisky and gives CVG 0.30" of rain Thurs night into early Fri morning. I'm not betting on that much falling, but it would be nice if it did actually occur.

12Z GEFS by and large keeps the +PNA pattern going other then a brief relaxation around Oct 11-13th or so time period. An interesting pattern for sure but it is a continuation of what we saw since the Spring. Remember, this past summer was not horribly hot. We were well below in terms of 90 degree days. CVG avg's 22 and we only had 15. The pattern has changed to a -PNA the last couple of weeks since we've had a lot of ridging and very warm weather over the Eastern US. The +PNA looks to return this weekend and it looks to stick around overall as a whole for a while. I continue to see upper lows traversing the country thanks to the blocking up top. The Gulf by and large continues to be closed for business. If the El Nino has it's typical effects, the STJ should fire up in November and the Gulf should be open for business. However, if the polar jet remains dominant then this El Nino will NOT have the same impacts that we usually see. As usual, we'll see what happens when we get closer.

[tron777]

I thought this was funny. BG has a great sense of humor!

[dce]

83 already as of 1pm at CVG. 12Z GFS continues to show a parade of upper lows with the blocking pattern in place throughout its run diving in from the NW overtop the Western Ridge.

Man, can we just keep this pattern in place for 2-3 more months!?

[tpweather]

12Z Euro got a little frisky and gives CVG 0.30" of rain Thurs night into early Fri morning. I'm not betting on that much falling, but it would be nice if it did actually occur.

12Z GEFS by and large keeps the +PNA pattern going other then a brief relaxation around Oct 11-13th or so time period. An interesting pattern for sure but it is a continuation of what we saw since the Spring. Remember, this past summer was not horribly hot. We were well below in terms of 90 degree days. CVG avg's 22 and we only had 15. The pattern has changed to a -PNA the last couple of weeks since we've had a lot of ridging and very warm weather over the Eastern US. The +PNA looks to return this weekend and it looks to stick around overall as a whole for a while. I continue to see upper lows traversing the country thanks to the blocking up top. The Gulf by and large continues to be closed for business. If the El Nino has it's typical effects, the STJ should fire up in November and the Gulf should be open for business. However, if the polar jet remains dominant then this El Nino will NOT have the same impacts that we usually see. As usual, we'll see what happens when we get closer.

Les one of your best posts. I believe we are seeing better signs of what happens in a typical El Nino but need to see these continue over the next several weeks.

[tron777]

83 already as of 1pm at CVG. 12Z GFS continues to show a parade of upper lows with the blocking pattern in place throughout its run diving in from the NW overtop the Western Ridge.

Man, can we just keep this pattern in place for 2-3 more months!?

I'm praying Doug!!!

[tron777]

12Z Euro got a little frisky and gives CVG 0.30" of rain Thurs night into early Fri morning. I'm not betting on that much falling, but it would be nice if it did actually occur.

12Z GEFS by and large keeps the +PNA pattern going other then a brief relaxation around Oct 11-13th or so time period. An interesting pattern for sure but it is a continuation of what we saw since the Spring. Remember, this past summer was not horribly hot. We were well below in terms of 90 degree days. CVG avg's 22 and we only had 15. The pattern has changed to a -PNA the last couple of weeks since we've had a lot of ridging and very warm weather over the Eastern US. The +PNA looks to return this weekend and it looks to stick around overall as a whole for a while. I continue to see upper lows traversing the country thanks to the blocking up top. The Gulf by and large continues to be closed for business. If the El Nino has it's typical effects, the STJ should fire up in November and the Gulf should be open for business. However, if the polar jet remains dominant then this El Nino will NOT have the same impacts that we usually see. As usual, we'll see what happens when we get closer.

Les one of your best posts. I believe we are seeing better signs of what happens in a typical El Nino but need to see these continue over the next several weeks.

Thank you Tim! There's just a lot of strange things going on. With a La Nina, the polar jet is usually the dominate one and with an El Nino it is the STJ. As we've talked about in our winter thoughts thread, the background state for the last 3 years has been a La Nina and now the Nino is trying to get going but struggling to do so. This winter maybe a rather interesting one IMO if we continue to see these conflicting signals battle it out.

Back to our October weather now and we're cooking out there for early October standards. This weekend will be a shock to us all but I welcome it with open arms! I am sick of the warmth.

[tpweather]

12Z Euro got a little frisky and gives CVG 0.30" of rain Thurs night into early Fri morning. I'm not betting on that much falling, but it would be nice if it did actually occur.

12Z GEFS by and large keeps the +PNA pattern going other then a brief relaxation around Oct 11-13th or so time period. An interesting pattern for sure but it is a continuation of what we saw since the Spring. Remember, this past summer was not horribly hot. We were well below in terms of 90 degree days. CVG avg's 22 and we only had 15. The pattern has changed to a -PNA the last couple of weeks since we've had a lot of ridging and very warm weather over the Eastern US. The +PNA looks to return this weekend and it looks to stick around overall as a whole for a while. I continue to see upper lows traversing the country thanks to the blocking up top. The Gulf by and large continues to be closed for business. If the El Nino has it's typical effects, the STJ should fire up in November and the Gulf should be open for business. However, if the polar jet remains dominant then this El Nino will NOT have the same impacts that we usually see. As usual, we'll see what happens when we get closer.

Les one of your best posts. I believe we are seeing better signs of what happens in a typical El Nino but need to see these continue over the next several weeks.

Thank you Tim! There's just a lot of strange things going on. With a La Nina, the polar jet is usually the dominate one and with an El Nino it is the STJ. As we've talked about in our winter thoughts thread, the background state for the last 3 years has been a La Nina and now the Nino is trying to get going but struggling to do so. This winter maybe a rather interesting one IMO if we continue to see these conflicting signals battle it out.

Back to our October weather now and we're cooking out there for early October standards. This weekend will be a shock to us all but I welcome it with open arms! I am sick of the warmth.

I second that motion on the warmth. What I thought was somewhat strange is how quick the El Nino came on after La Nina faded. It was a long period for the La Nina and maybe it was dying out quicker but the return of the warm waters near the equator came so quickly. Not sure if that has anything to do with what has happen the past 6 months but I never remember one switching over that quickly. My guess it has but the memory gets worse the older you get.

[tpweather]

Les you mentioned the Euro had went higher on rainfall. When looking out west the system is producing some nice severe weather so there is energy involved and I wonder with the system in the Atlantic that it may be slowing the front down as it nears us and that could also account for some higher totals. Love to see 0.25 and be happy but if we can get more that sounds great.

[tron777]

12Z Euro got a little frisky and gives CVG 0.30" of rain Thurs night into early Fri morning. I'm not betting on that much falling, but it would be nice if it did actually occur.

12Z GEFS by and large keeps the +PNA pattern going other then a brief relaxation around Oct 11-13th or so time period. An interesting pattern for sure but it is a continuation of what we saw since the Spring. Remember, this past summer was not horribly hot. We were well below in terms of 90 degree days. CVG avg's 22 and we only had 15. The pattern has changed to a -PNA the last couple of weeks since we've had a lot of ridging and very warm weather over the Eastern US. The +PNA looks to return this weekend and it looks to stick around overall as a whole for a while. I continue to see upper lows traversing the country thanks to the blocking up top. The Gulf by and large continues to be closed for business. If the El Nino has it's typical effects, the STJ should fire up in November and the Gulf should be open for business. However, if the polar jet remains dominant then this El Nino will NOT have the same impacts that we usually see. As usual, we'll see what happens when we get closer.

Les one of your best posts. I believe we are seeing better signs of what happens in a typical El Nino but need to see these continue over the next several weeks.

Thank you Tim! There's just a lot of strange things going on. With a La Nina, the polar jet is usually the dominate one and with an El Nino it is the STJ. As we've talked about in our winter thoughts thread, the background state for the last 3 years has been a La Nina and now the Nino is trying to get going but struggling to do so. This winter maybe a rather interesting one IMO if we continue to see these conflicting signals battle it out.

Back to our October weather now and we're cooking out there for early October standards. This weekend will be a shock to us all but I welcome it with open arms! I am sick of the warmth.

I second that motion on the warmth. What I thought was somewhat strange is how quick the El Nino came on after La Nina faded. It was a long period for the La Nina and maybe it was dying out quicker but the return of the warm waters near the equator came so quickly. Not sure if that has anything to do with what has happen the past 6 months but I never remember one switching over that quickly. My guess it has but the memory gets worse the older you get.

I don't recall that happening either Tim. It probably has but I'll bet that the sample size is VERY SMALL so we don't have much to go on there from an analog standpoint. The background state is still having a "La Nina hangover" if you will and that might be part of the reason the El Nino isn't taking off and / or acting differently then you'd otherwise expect.

[tron777]

Les you mentioned the Euro had went higher on rainfall. When looking out west the system is producing some nice severe weather so there is energy involved and I wonder with the system in the Atlantic that it may be slowing the front down as it nears us and that could also account for some higher totals. Love to see 0.25 and be happy but if we can get more that sounds great.

We definitely would need a t-storm IMO to achieve those higher amounts. Phillipe could act to slow things down but at the same time, it is only a weak TS and not a hurricane. If it were a stronger system I could see it having more of an impact so I'm not entirely sure to be honest. The pattern amplification will cause this system to slow down with a strong upper low and also with the blocking that we have in place. These reasons do make sense to me. This is why we have a shot of showers in that Thurs night into Friday window as well as late Fri night or early Sat morning. This is exactly why we have seen our highs for this weekend lowered from like 3-4 days ago. Also, if we get the clear skies and calm winds frost will have a better chance at forming. It will depend on how quick the skies clear and the winds calm down. Sun morning may not happen frost wise if true, so Mon morning of next week may have the best chance.

[tpweather]

Les you mentioned the Euro had went higher on rainfall. When looking out west the system is producing some nice severe weather so there is energy involved and I wonder with the system in the Atlantic that it may be slowing the front down as it nears us and that could also account for some higher totals. Love to see 0.25 and be happy but if we can get more that sounds great.

We definitely would need a t-storm IMO to achieve those higher amounts. Phillipe could act to slow things down but at the same time, it is only a weak TS and not a hurricane. If it were a stronger system I could see it having more of an impact so I'm not entirely sure to be honest. The pattern amplification will cause this system to slow down with a strong upper low and also with the blocking that we have in place. These reasons do make sense to me. This is why we have a shot of showers in that Thurs night into Friday window as well as late Fri night or early Sat morning. This is exactly why we have seen our highs for this weekend lowered from like 3-4 days ago. Also, if we get the clear skies and calm winds frost will have a better chance at forming. It will depend on how quick the skies clear and the winds calm down. Sun morning may not happen frost wise if true, so Mon morning of next week may have the best chance.

I feel more confident of frost Sunday morning the further southwest you live away somewhat from the higher winds. I do believe Monday is the best shot for most of us and even Tuesday morning especially folks further east will have a shot. So 3 days where frost may form but again not everyone will have frost.

Concerning the front itself on Thursday and I believe the models are slowing it slow down somewhat and then waits for the shortwave to sort of catch up to the front and then push it through quickly on Friday. My concern for Thursday is if we get more daylight hours with sun we could head near 80. Seen this happen to often and with each run getting a tad slower you never know. Yes more clouds and that usually helps in keeping temps from getting past the forecast highs so I am still going 74-77 locally but can't throw out the chance we hit 80 if everything falls in place.

[tpweather]

12Z Euro got a little frisky and gives CVG 0.30" of rain Thurs night into early Fri morning. I'm not betting on that much falling, but it would be nice if it did actually occur.

12Z GEFS by and large keeps the +PNA pattern going other then a brief relaxation around Oct 11-13th or so time period. An interesting pattern for sure but it is a continuation of what we saw since the Spring. Remember, this past summer was not horribly hot. We were well below in terms of 90 degree days. CVG avg's 22 and we only had 15. The pattern has changed to a -PNA the last couple of weeks since we've had a lot of ridging and very warm weather over the Eastern US. The +PNA looks to return this weekend and it looks to stick around overall as a whole for a while. I continue to see upper lows traversing the country thanks to the blocking up top. The Gulf by and large continues to be closed for business. If the El Nino has it's typical effects, the STJ should fire up in November and the Gulf should be open for business. However, if the polar jet remains dominant then this El Nino will NOT have the same impacts that we usually see. As usual, we'll see what happens when we get closer.

Les one of your best posts. I believe we are seeing better signs of what happens in a typical El Nino but need to see these continue over the next several weeks.

Thank you Tim! There's just a lot of strange things going on. With a La Nina, the polar jet is usually the dominate one and with an El Nino it is the STJ. As we've talked about in our winter thoughts thread, the background state for the last 3 years has been a La Nina and now the Nino is trying to get going but struggling to do so. This winter maybe a rather interesting one IMO if we continue to see these conflicting signals battle it out.

Back to our October weather now and we're cooking out there for early October standards. This weekend will be a shock to us all but I welcome it with open arms! I am sick of the warmth.

I second that motion on the warmth. What I thought was somewhat strange is how quick the El Nino came on after La Nina faded. It was a long period for the La Nina and maybe it was dying out quicker but the return of the warm waters near the equator came so quickly. Not sure if that has anything to do with what has happen the past 6 months but I never remember one switching over that quickly. My guess it has but the memory gets worse the older you get.

I don't recall that happening either Tim. It probably has but I'll bet that the sample size is VERY SMALL so we don't have much to go on there from an analog standpoint. The background state is still having a "La Nina hangover" if you will and that might be part of the reason the El Nino isn't taking off and / or acting differently then you'd otherwise expect.

Les I am not sure about the La Nina hangover because in late spring and the early part of summer I thought conditions seemed like an El Nino was increasing. Then the tropics in the Atlantic got very busy later in August and September which is usually not the case with and El Nino. Then in the past few weeks the waters near the equator near SA started to cool. This may be a normal cycle and things just got out of whack. I know the south pacific say in Australia and New Zealand that the conditions are rather dry and that is a sign of an El Nino in that part of the world. Tons of pieces to the puzzle as we know and it seems we get the 1000 piece puzzle every winter lol