Absolute Vorticity

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Sep 04, 2023 2:50 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Sep 04, 2023 2:30 pm Best rain chances look to be tomorrow afternoon thru about Wed evening. Then we're done for a while again, but at least the temps are going to be more tolerable. Today's 12Z GFS digs a big trough into the West around 9/20 with the warmth returning. Hope that is nonsense but it is fantasy at this range anyway and the OP GFS so you know. MJO comes out into the Maritime Continent briefly but dives back into the neutral circle again. PNA spikes briefly but drops late in the period so it fits the GFS's run actually today. We'll see. OP GFS brings the 90s back in the fantasy range where the GEFS says low to mid 80s.

Les unless the hurricane season has a big uptick during late to middle September I don't see those 90's at all. Matter of fact we seem to be in the pattern that started in early summer and if that is the case even 80's could be harder to reach. Sure a day or two of 80-82 but getting later in the season and usually the west has more ridging and we start to see those cold fronts dive out of Canada and we end up with some very pleasant weather. The gfs long range has been horrible only outdone by its short term range.

As long as the tropics do not flare back up then I agree no 90s. The tropics have definitely changed the pattern but we are seeing some +PNA spikes embedded within it thank goodness.

90 as of 3pm at CVG...

Frost Advisories in parts of eastern Nevada. Love it when I start to see these pop up

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Sep 04, 2023 4:30 pm Frost Advisories in parts of eastern Nevada. Love it when I start to see these pop up

Utah snow on Labor Day too! Love seeing that too.

CVG reached 93, DAY 91 and CMH 89'ed on Labor Day.

Good morning all! Today is the last day of the 90s for this stretch of heat anyway. Upper 80s tomorrow with a 50/50 chance for rain with the cold front. Then gorgeous Thurs thru the beginning of next week. No rain. Lows in the 50s to low 60s and highs in the 70s to the lower 80s region wide. We need the rain but those temps are sure going to be nice!

Good Morning Les and either today or Wednesday will be the last 90 of the year. Again rainfall light over the next 2 days before cooler and drier air moves in. The models are starting to show the trough much better with each run. Late this week and probably through Monday we will have temps near 80 an lows in the upper 50's which is really close to normal. Starting Tuesday through much of the week models are starting to show the trough digging deeper into the midwest and Ohio Valley. No doubt this will bring cooler air and maybe some showers and we could see a few days with highs in the upper 60's or low 70's if clouds become the theme for the day. While this is happening a true tropical system should be off the east coast. Very unlikely we have a direct hit to the USA but what happens is more of a roadblock and this keeps whatever is happening in your area stalled for several days. We will happen to be on the cool side and yes maybe showers from Tuesday-Friday. Once the tropical system moves away we should head back to normal but by then normal temps are highs in the upper 70's and lows in the mid-upper 50's.

Good morning all! I think today or tomorrow 'should' be our last 90 for the year but we shall see. I would take the long range OPS GFS with a grain of salt as it seems to have a very warm bias in fantasy range. Example - it showed 100s here for next week several runs ago and we all knew that wouldn't happen. Hoping for some liquid gold the next 24-36 hours. Will be the same kind of deal, one hood gets a downpour while 2 miles away it stays bone dry. I am always amazed at how much daylight we lose in September (like 70+ minutes).

Good Morning Mike and this summer has been the worse I have seen the models during the summer concerning temps. It seems to me that folks who have control of those models figure why they have been way to warm and sometimes out of this world hot. Very possible that the gfs which showed 100s here next week could be off 30 degrees. Again I use the models for a reference but after awhile you just shake your head.

The GFS has been having problem with the dewpoints. It keeps mixing down the drier air (thus lowering dewpoints) way too much and thus, you get the hotter readings. It has been having huge issues initializing the dewpoints correctly this summer. I am not ready to say no more 90s unless the tropics shut down. Then I absolutely would feel confident in making that statement. If the tropics continue, there is a shot at more warmth for the 3rd week of Sept. We'll see what happens as we go forward in time.

For now... we will track todays temps as well as tomorrow's and then our 50 / 50 rain chance coming up for tomorrow as well.

So far we are sitting at 80 degrees but some high clouds which this time of year can keep temps down by a degree or two. So I am guessing 88-90 for a high at CVG. Les I believe after Wednesday the chances for 90 degrees is almost zero. First we going to get a nice cool shot over the next 10 days and the tropics seem to pointing towards any activity happening off the east coast. Never say never but this season imo it looks like 90 is done after Wednesday. Concerning next week and if we get a day with clouds and showers upper 60's and low 70's for highs are very possible. This would not surprise me and no sun this time of year with a cooler air mass in place then this is very possible.

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Sep 05, 2023 10:18 am So far we are sitting at 80 degrees but some high clouds which this time of year can keep temps down by a degree or two. So I am guessing 88-90 for a high at CVG. Les I believe after Wednesday the chances for 90 degrees is almost zero. First we going to get a nice cool shot over the next 10 days and the tropics seem to pointing towards any activity happening off the east coast. Never say never but this season imo it looks like 90 is done after Wednesday. Concerning next week and if we get a day with clouds and showers upper 60's and low 70's for highs are very possible. This would not surprise me and no sun this time of year with a cooler air mass in place then this is very possible.

Tim, the call makes sense both metrologically and climatically. I thought we were about done until this last attempt started showing up. We should get warmer post 9/20 but will it remain in the 80s which you would expect for the time of year or do we get 90ish temps again for a few more days before the pattern finally flips to a more Nino one (instead of Nina-like with the trough in the West). Tropics active, the 90 degree temps are possible. No tropics, then the 90s are done until 2024. Once the storm track shifts south more into California and the polar jet lifts out of the NW, then El Nino can take over and bring in some much needed moisture producing systems. An active pattern with rain every 3-4 days will knock the temps down by default to below normal. That I think comes late this month and into October. November starts to moderate and December torches as the Nino takes hold. Then second half of winter rocks! That is kind of my thought process (although a little much for a monthly thread LOL) for the next few months.

Great Post Les and I have not started researching El Nino for the upcoming fall and winter and glad you have done the leg work. Seems about 3 months or so we have been in the same pattern of the heat to the west and cool to the northeast. Of course the pattern would break down but usually less than a week each time and we go back to the similar pattern. I believe that will happen once again later this week and next week. Then do we see a temp pattern change and I believe much of that will be what the tropics decide to do. Starting sometime in Oct then we really start to see the new pattern form and again for me too early to forecast. So at the moment I am playing the role of Switzerland because throwing out a forecast without research is not the way to go.

CVG got 89'ed as of the 12pm reading.

The gfs showing the 540 line all the into southern Michigan by day 15. Lol but it does show the pattern we have been in for several months and the coolest of air has been either in the great lakes/oh valley or northeast. Gfs also shows a tropical systems hitting the mainland USA while the CMC shows it out to sea.

Starting to see some showers and thundershowers pop up this afternoon. Again isolated at the moment but no doubt they were in the forecast and this should continue through Wednesday.

CVG hit 90 sometime between 1pm and 2pm. I will wait a little while to confirm this before updating the contest thread.

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Sep 05, 2023 1:47 pm The gfs showing the 540 line all the into southern Michigan by day 15. Lol but it does show the pattern we have been in for several months and the coolest of air has been either in the great lakes/oh valley or northeast. Gfs also shows a tropical systems hitting the mainland USA while the CMC shows it out to sea.

Likely overdone as we both know but we'll see. That would be the total opposite of what the 12Z GFS had yesterday valid for the same time... 90 some degrees.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 05, 2023 2:23 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Sep 05, 2023 1:47 pm The gfs showing the 540 line all the into southern Michigan by day 15. Lol but it does show the pattern we have been in for several months and the coolest of air has been either in the great lakes/oh valley or northeast. Gfs also shows a tropical systems hitting the mainland USA while the CMC shows it out to sea.

Likely overdone as we both know but we'll see. That would be the total opposite of what the 12Z GFS had yesterday valid for the same time... 90 some degrees.

Lol Les but I believe cooler is the way to go and the pattern is no doubt showing us its hand. Again the 540 is too far south and I agree but even getting it the Canadian border is a nice cool shot. If we get the tropical system off the east coast and if its really strong that can pull down what available cold air is in central Canada rather far south. I am going much cooler than models next week and have for days but the following week is still a wait and see and that has to do with the tropical system.

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Sep 05, 2023 2:27 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 05, 2023 2:23 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Sep 05, 2023 1:47 pm The gfs showing the 540 line all the into southern Michigan by day 15. Lol but it does show the pattern we have been in for several months and the coolest of air has been either in the great lakes/oh valley or northeast. Gfs also shows a tropical systems hitting the mainland USA while the CMC shows it out to sea.

Likely overdone as we both know but we'll see. That would be the total opposite of what the 12Z GFS had yesterday valid for the same time... 90 some degrees.

Lol Les but I believe cooler is the way to go and the pattern is no doubt showing us its hand. Again the 540 is too far south and I agree but even getting it the Canadian border is a nice cool shot. If we get the tropical system off the east coast and if its really strong that can pull down what available cold air is in central Canada rather far south. I am going much cooler than models next week and have for days but the following week is still a wait and see and that has to do with the tropical system.

I'd like to see the GFS quit flip flopping around like a big walleye and have some consistency before I start biting. I am thankful for the upcoming break starting Thursday. I hope we can get lucky and get a little rain out of it, but not expecting too.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 05, 2023 2:32 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Sep 05, 2023 2:27 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 05, 2023 2:23 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Sep 05, 2023 1:47 pm The gfs showing the 540 line all the into southern Michigan by day 15. Lol but it does show the pattern we have been in for several months and the coolest of air has been either in the great lakes/oh valley or northeast. Gfs also shows a tropical systems hitting the mainland USA while the CMC shows it out to sea.

Likely overdone as we both know but we'll see. That would be the total opposite of what the 12Z GFS had yesterday valid for the same time... 90 some degrees.

Lol Les but I believe cooler is the way to go and the pattern is no doubt showing us its hand. Again the 540 is too far south and I agree but even getting it the Canadian border is a nice cool shot. If we get the tropical system off the east coast and if its really strong that can pull down what available cold air is in central Canada rather far south. I am going much cooler than models next week and have for days but the following week is still a wait and see and that has to do with the tropical system.

I'd like to see the GFS quit flip flopping around like a big walleye and have some consistency before I start biting. I am thankful for the upcoming break starting Thursday. I hope we can get lucky and get a little rain out of it, but not expecting too.

Les that is why I ignored the gfs and euro this summer. Both awful and the cmc really has been the best in regards to temps. Will that trend continue and no ideal but until the other models are fixed I will rely more on patterns than model output.

Speaking of the 12Z Euro, it brings CVG almost 0.40" of rain tomorrow. I'll believe that when I see it.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 05, 2023 2:37 pm Speaking of the 12Z Euro, it brings CVG almost 0.40" of rain tomorrow. I'll believe that when I see it.

These models throw this out and what happens is it covers many areas and sure somebody will probably get a nice 1/2 but that will not be widespread and no way to know if that hits the airport. My guess the next run will show 0.10 but somebody like Lexington gets the .50. I still believe most folks are in that 0.10-0.25 range but a few place may get .5 and some may get zero.

So far the showers that are forming tend to be south and west of us but drifting slowly north. At the moment folks further west have a better shot of picking up a nice little shower. We will see if this trend continue later in the day

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Sep 05, 2023 2:42 pm So far the showers that are forming tend to be south and west of us but drifting slowly north. At the moment folks further west have a better shot of picking up a nice little shower. We will see if this trend continue later in the day

Anything today is a bonus. Most models only had like 20-30% coverage, best chance West as you mentioned.