Absolute Vorticity

12Z Euro is going with a Paducah to NKY / Cincy to Cleveland track. Seeing a lot of model agreement today with this type of track. If this is correct, we should see a nice period of front end snows depositing several inches before rain / dry slotting occurs. The further north and west you are, the better, the further south and east you are, the lesser amounts you'll see. I do think that all AV Posters will see something out of the front end of this system though. And that's what we will be trying to figure out today and tomorrow for our forecast.

Would love to know your initial thoughts on the Middletown, Ohio area. We are in desperate need of a snow day!!

About an inch out this way?

Casie / Matt... if I had to throw out some numbers:

1-2" S counties
2-4" - Metro counties.
3-6" I-70 Crew
6"+ ILN's Northern Tier esp back across Indiana

This is kind of broad brushed and generic and subject to change. I think snow will move in sometime after midnight. Maybe 3am or something? For Metro Cincinnati, the morning rush should be impacted by this system and we'll changeover to rain / or get dry slotted as the day wears on. Thinking around 7-8am in the south. 8-10am for Metro Cincy and later in the day for folks further to the north. Again, I'd like to see more data before fully committing to a final call. I get it. You guys ask questions and I try to provide the answers as best I can. This is all subject to change depending on future data and nowcasting as well.

Many of the models, like the 12z Euro depicted here, have a very nice front end thumping of snow for AV land. We usually don't see this nice of a front end thump, but you can't ignore the agreement from so many of the models for this to actually occur.

I don't feel like reading 3 pages. Just looked at the 12z's and it looks like a hot mess. Bad timing overall for different reasons.

ILN's early call as of 6:30am this morning. This does not include any 12Z model data.

dce wrote: ↑Mon Jan 23, 2023 1:33 pm Many of the models, like the 12z Euro depicted here, have a very nice front end thumping of snow for AV land. We usually don't see this nice of a front end thump, but you can't ignore the agreement from so many of the models for this to actually occur.

I think using 10:1 ratios will be a bit too high much like the last system. Probably 8:1 or 9:1 so I'd shave a couple of inches off of those numbers. Just my 2 cents.

young pup wrote: ↑Mon Jan 23, 2023 1:39 pm I don't feel like reading 3 pages. Just looked at the 12z's and it looks like a hot mess. Bad timing overall for different reasons.

That's why we're calling it a nail biter! The snowfall gradient for the I-71 corridor will be tough to forecast due to the low track.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 23, 2023 1:44 pm

young pup wrote: ↑Mon Jan 23, 2023 1:39 pm I don't feel like reading 3 pages. Just looked at the 12z's and it looks like a hot mess. Bad timing overall for different reasons.

That's why we're calling it a nail biter! The snowfall gradient for the I-71 corridor will be tough to forecast due to the low track.

I already don't have any nails left.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 23, 2023 1:31 pm Casie / Matt... if I had to throw out some numbers:

1-2" S counties
2-4" - Metro counties.
3-6" I-70 Crew
6"+ ILN's Northern Tier esp back across Indiana

This is kind of broad brushed and generic and subject to change. I think snow will move in sometime after midnight. Maybe 3am or something? For Metro Cincinnati, the morning rush should be impacted by this system and we'll changeover to rain / or get dry slotted as the day wears on. Thinking around 7-8am in the south. 8-10am for Metro Cincy and later in the day for folks further to the north. Again, I'd like to see more data before fully committing to a final call. I get it. You guys ask questions and I try to provide the answers as best I can. This is all subject to change depending on future data and nowcasting as well.

Where does Middletown fall in these categories? Metro? And I get it... models are al over the place. Just looking for initial thoughts. Thanks!

young pup wrote: ↑Mon Jan 23, 2023 1:46 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 23, 2023 1:44 pm

young pup wrote: ↑Mon Jan 23, 2023 1:39 pm I don't feel like reading 3 pages. Just looked at the 12z's and it looks like a hot mess. Bad timing overall for different reasons.

That's why we're calling it a nail biter! The snowfall gradient for the I-71 corridor will be tough to forecast due to the low track.

I already don't have any nails left.

I hear that! We have quite a few of these types of systems coming in the extended range too. So likely more tough forecasting for us is ahead even after Wednesdays nail biter.

wrmwxfreak wrote: ↑Mon Jan 23, 2023 1:47 pm
Where does Middletown fall in these categories? Metro? And I get it... models are al over the place. Just looking for initial thoughts. Thanks!

You're in between Dayton and Cincinnati so going by my numbers above, you'd be at the high end of the metro category and low end of the I-70 Crew category. Something like 3-4" maybe 5" if things break right would probably be good for your area.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 23, 2023 1:50 pm

wrmwxfreak wrote: ↑Mon Jan 23, 2023 1:47 pm
Where does Middletown fall in these categories? Metro? And I get it... models are al over the place. Just looking for initial thoughts. Thanks!

You're in between Dayton and Cincinnati so going by my numbers above, you'd be at the high end of the metro category and low end of the I-70 Crew category. Something like 3-4" maybe 5" if things break right would probably be good for your area.

Thanks, Les!

wrmwxfreak wrote: ↑Mon Jan 23, 2023 1:51 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 23, 2023 1:50 pm

wrmwxfreak wrote: ↑Mon Jan 23, 2023 1:47 pm
Where does Middletown fall in these categories? Metro? And I get it... models are al over the place. Just looking for initial thoughts. Thanks!

You're in between Dayton and Cincinnati so going by my numbers above, you'd be at the high end of the metro category and low end of the I-70 Crew category. Something like 3-4" maybe 5" if things break right would probably be good for your area.

Thanks, Les!

Not a problem!

dce wrote: ↑Mon Jan 23, 2023 1:33 pm Many of the models, like the 12z Euro depicted here, have a very nice front end thumping of snow for AV land. We usually don't see this nice of a front end thump, but you can't ignore the agreement from so many of the models for this to actually occur.

Doug this is where I am having the hardest time with this system and you are correct getting that front end thumping seldom happens unless we are coming off an arctic cold blast and that is not case at all here. On the opposite side we are getting a quick input of moisture from the GOM and dynamic cooling looks to happen but how long does that last. We may see a deal where its snowing like crazy at 6am and wow big snow coming but then we lose the dynamic cooling and the clouds get a darker look and then we have rain.

Les threw out number but I can tell he is having the same issues I am with this. He is doing a great job in answering everyone's questions on how much snow will they get but this is very tricky imo. Again I will let Les speak for himself but by his posts I feel that is the case and if I am wrong please correct me Les.

12Z EPS Clustering is pretty tight now with the low track. Pretty much the same as the OP Euro.

Tim, you're right. I have not locked into anything as of yet. Just throwing some potential numbers out there since folks were asking. This is another situation that has a high bust potential that can be a positive bust like Sunday or a negative bust meaning lower amounts. Models always have a tough time in these marginal set up's. It's just the way it is. We have seen models underdo WAA as well as over do WAA. If the precip rate is heavy enough dynamic cooling can hold off the WAA a little longer which can give you a few bonus inches. At the same time, if the precip is too light, we won't be snowing for all that long so it'll be as you said Tim. What looks like a nice incoming event doesn't last long and you quickly flip over to rain. Sunday's system, this system, and future systems are all going to be similar set up's. High Risk, High Reward as we both have said. This will continue into early Feb IMO.

That’s my issue with all of this. The last storm was a fluke and every meteorology person who erred in forecast got slammed for it.

If we are hoping for a round 2, I don’t think it’s going to happen. Different system with different setup. More of a wait and see than anything else. Need to see how the short term models run into this evening, before anything starts to solidify in the forecast.

Another hurry up and wait…

fyrfyter wrote: ↑Mon Jan 23, 2023 2:15 pm That’s my issue with all of this. The last storm was a fluke and every meteorology person who erred in forecast got slammed for it.

If we are hoping for a round 2, I don’t think it’s going to happen. Different system with different setup. More of a wait and see than anything else. Need to see how the short term models run into this evening, before anything starts to solidify in the forecast.

Another hurry up and wait…

Great post Aaron! 100% agree! You cannot let the past storm effect your judgment with this next system. It absolutely is a different set up as we've already talked about in this thread.

fyrfyter wrote: ↑Mon Jan 23, 2023 2:15 pm That’s my issue with all of this. The last storm was a fluke and every meteorology person who erred in forecast got slammed for it.

If we are hoping for a round 2, I don’t think it’s going to happen. Different system with different setup. More of a wait and see than anything else. Need to see how the short term models run into this evening, before anything starts to solidify in the forecast.

Another hurry up and wait…

What makes the okay met's from the really really good met's is using the models as tools but also what is happening at the moment and is really lining up to what the models are trying to show. Saturday was a great example and not that Les and I were dead on because we were not but I do believe we had the colder air that was sticking around and banding would be an issue. Not sure if any models had that and my problems is probably don't pay enough attention to models when I should but overall we busted low like most folks but we had what happened in the forecast but just missed on location. Wrong is wrong and I am wrong way more than I am correct but the storm imo was really not a fluke but too many folks just gave into the models instead of looking at current conditions. I don't like picking on the folks at the NWS because they do a wonderful job and have no ideal what they can throw out as a forecast but this past storm they were behind the eight ball and could not get ahead of the game.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 23, 2023 1:48 pm

young pup wrote: ↑Mon Jan 23, 2023 1:46 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 23, 2023 1:44 pm

young pup wrote: ↑Mon Jan 23, 2023 1:39 pm I don't feel like reading 3 pages. Just looked at the 12z's and it looks like a hot mess. Bad timing overall for different reasons.

That's why we're calling it a nail biter! The snowfall gradient for the I-71 corridor will be tough to forecast due to the low track.

I already don't have any nails left.

I hear that! We have quite a few of these types of systems coming in the extended range too. So likely more tough forecasting for us is ahead even after Wednesdays nail biter.

Better add a box of toothpicks to the grocery list. That way I have something to chew on. lol

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Jan 23, 2023 2:28 pm

fyrfyter wrote: ↑Mon Jan 23, 2023 2:15 pm That’s my issue with all of this. The last storm was a fluke and every meteorology person who erred in forecast got slammed for it.

If we are hoping for a round 2, I don’t think it’s going to happen. Different system with different setup. More of a wait and see than anything else. Need to see how the short term models run into this evening, before anything starts to solidify in the forecast.

Another hurry up and wait…

What makes the okay met's from the really really good met's is using the models as tools but also what is happening at the moment and is really lining up to what the models are trying to show. Saturday was a great example and not that Les and I were dead on because we were not but I do believe we had the colder air that was sticking around and banding would be an issue. Not sure if any models had that and my problems is probably don't pay enough attention to models when I should but overall we busted low like most folks but we had what happened in the forecast but just missed on location. Wrong is wrong and I am wrong way more than I am correct but the storm imo was really not a fluke but too many folks just gave into the models instead of looking at current conditions. I don't like picking on the folks at the NWS because they do a wonderful job and have no ideal what they can throw out as a forecast but this past storm they were behind the eight ball and could not get ahead of the game.

Outstanding post Tim! Couldn't agree more. My problem sometimes is the opposite of yours where I look at too much data! I need to look at what's happening in real time a little more myself.

young pup wrote: ↑Mon Jan 23, 2023 2:30 pm Better add a box of toothpicks to the grocery list. That way I have something to chew on. lol

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 23, 2023 2:34 pm

young pup wrote: ↑Mon Jan 23, 2023 2:30 pm Better add a box of toothpicks to the grocery list. That way I have something to chew on. lol

Toothpicks.PNG

I just called Dusty Baker and he is sending over a gross today.

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Jan 23, 2023 2:36 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 23, 2023 2:34 pm

young pup wrote: ↑Mon Jan 23, 2023 2:30 pm Better add a box of toothpicks to the grocery list. That way I have something to chew on. lol

Toothpicks.PNG

I just called Dusty Baker and he is sending over a gross today.