Absolute Vorticity

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Oct 04, 2022 8:01 am Low temperature so far this fall at Anchorage airport is 37F (+2.8C); this season now in the top ten latest first freeze. @NWSAnchorage forecast has no temps even close to freezing thru the weekend. If that works out, 2022 would be a "top four" latest.

Makes perfect sense and teleconnects nicely to our much earlier then normal frost potential coming up here locally this weekend.

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Oct 04, 2022 7:54 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 04, 2022 7:30 am 40 here this morning! Anyone get into the 30s N of town? Any patchy frost I-70 folks?

To my surprise a little light frost away from the house though temp only 40 here. Expecting big time frost this weekend though as conditions look great for the development of frost.

Nothing here. Not even at the bottom of the hill IMBY which is cooler then the temp I gave which is my weather station temp. It can be a few degrees cooler at the bottom of the hill though as cold air is more dense and settles to the bottom in the mornings. Nothing there either. Agree though with you. We should see frost advisories coming out late this week.

Pretty sunrise with the light bouncing off of the spotty color on some of the trees outside. Starting to see a bit of red now in a tree across the street, My maple is turning nice and golden. Lot of gold on the street with maples. Oaks of course are all still green. They don't turn until much, much later.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Oct 04, 2022 8:01 am Low temperature so far this fall at Anchorage airport is 37F (+2.8C); this season now in the top ten latest first freeze. @NWSAnchorage forecast has no temps even close to freezing thru the weekend. If that works out, 2022 would be a "top four" latest.

With the northern pacific oceans very warm this has also kept Alaska from getting their normal cold air shots in September. Of course mother nature must balance out this with some decent cold in Northern Canada away from any influence from the oceans. This has also aided in us getting some cold shots early this season. Very warm waters off the pacific northwest coast and if we see this continue in the winter we will no doubt be cold. Of course there will be some storminess over the next two months in that area and this usually cools the waters down somewhat but to what extent is of course unknown. I do expect Alaska will see some cold shots this month and when this happens expect a milder period for us. When you look at the whole picture the western 1/3 to almost 1/2 of the USA is remaining above normal in regards to temps and still seeing above normal rainfall in the 4 corners area due to the flow from the pacific that has produced several tropical systems off the coast of Mexico.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 04, 2022 8:06 am Pretty sunrise with the light bouncing off of the spotty color on some of the trees outside. Starting to see a bit of red now in a tree across the street, My maple is turning nice and golden. Lot of gold on the street with maples. Oaks of course are all still green. They don't turn until much, much later.

The trees in our area are turning but they are so sad with the lack of rain the past two months. Such a dry spell here and amazing both counties to the west and east have done so well and the trees look healthy. My leaves on the trees are so droopy and are just waiting to fall and even talking about the green ones.

Official lows:

CVG - 42
Me - 40
LUK - 35
Batavia - 38
HAO - 33
MGY - 37
Wash CH - 32
CMH - 39
DAY - 35
Urbana -32
Greenville - 32

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Oct 04, 2022 8:13 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 04, 2022 8:06 am Pretty sunrise with the light bouncing off of the spotty color on some of the trees outside. Starting to see a bit of red now in a tree across the street, My maple is turning nice and golden. Lot of gold on the street with maples. Oaks of course are all still green. They don't turn until much, much later.

The trees in our area are turning but they are so sad with the lack of rain the past two months. Such a dry spell here and amazing both counties to the west and east have done so well and the trees look healthy. My leaves on the trees are so droopy and are just waiting to fall and even talking about the green ones.

That was me last year before the fall rains came. Trees here are fine, Lawns are starting to get brown spots as I mentioned yesterday, The entire region could use some rain. It's going to be a while before we get it unless you get lucky on Thursday.

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Oct 04, 2022 8:13 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 04, 2022 8:06 am Pretty sunrise with the light bouncing off of the spotty color on some of the trees outside. Starting to see a bit of red now in a tree across the street, My maple is turning nice and golden. Lot of gold on the street with maples. Oaks of course are all still green. They don't turn until much, much later.

The trees in our area are turning but they are so sad with the lack of rain the past two months. Such a dry spell here and amazing both counties to the west and east have done so well and the trees look healthy. My leaves on the trees are so droopy and are just waiting to fall and even talking about the green ones.

Lol, guess you could say they are green with envy

64 at CVG right now, headed for a lovely high of 70. Similar lows tomorrow morning, 30s outlying areas and 40+ in the Metro areas. Then we moderate into the 70s ahead of the front Thurs with falling temps on Fri. Frost potential there Sat morning, very likely Sun morning, Then we pull back out of it. Still waiting to see how the long term evolves. I'm still going with an even colder blast of air down the road, but I a, not sure on timing (either before or after mid month). Then we probably moderate the week after that (the third week of Oct),

Frost / Freeze Climo from the boys:

https://www.weather.gov/iln/fallfrostfreeze

On the 7-day outlook on WDTN it showed a next "best" rain chance a week from today (Tues) the 11th at about 30% currently.

Currently 61 here in G'ville and progged for around 42 Wed morning.

71 at CVG today, 69 here. A few U30s in rural areas otherwise 40 to 35 should cover it for most areas on our way to the middle 70s and a delightful Wed afternoon!

Good Morning and another beautiful day in store. The remains of Ian are finally starting to move away and this will end the streak of wonderful weather for us. A little warmer today and on Thursday a few degrees warmer and maybe a south wind so a little humidity in the air before the cold front arrives on Friday. A nice crisp weekend in store and my guess some widespread frost especially Sunday morning. Next week starts out nice before the first system in awhile that has a chance to bring some rain around Thursday or so. How much will depend if the low over the rocky mountain states remains in one piece for a bigger storm or sort of splits and we get a nice cold front with some rain but this would move in and out rather quickly. Models will start to come around once Ian is out the picture and though we have some tropical activity in the Atlantic neither system looks to impact the USA.

Just to add a little more we really have 2 cold fronts with the first being on Thursday which is a wind change and then another one that brings in the colder air Friday morning.

40 again here this morning. I assume the folks who saw the 30s last night will be doing so again this morning.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 05, 2022 7:28 am 40 again here this morning. I assume the folks who saw the 30s last night will be doing so again this morning.

My low was 41

43 at CVG.

Nothing on todays 12Z GFS really stands out or makes any noise. We'll have a few warm days but mainly at or below avg is what I am seeing for the next week or two for Rocktober. Precip, well below avg of course barring some change like a tropical system which right now is low but not zero.

Wow I was shocked the temp has made it over 80 today. I knew the dew point was low and we would probably get to 74 or 75 but 80 is a shock

73 at CVG as of 1pm! Another in a string of beautiful days! We will pay for this I hope in terms of snow this winter.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Oct 05, 2022 1:26 pm Wow I was shocked the temp has made it over 80 today. I knew the dew point was low and we would probably get to 74 or 75 but 80 is a shock

If you are seeing 81 online it's wrong. Not sure why the webpage is misreporting it. I looked at the actual data and it's 73. Boone Co mesonet site is 70 and 74 here.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 05, 2022 1:30 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Oct 05, 2022 1:26 pm Wow I was shocked the temp has made it over 80 today. I knew the dew point was low and we would probably get to 74 or 75 but 80 is a shock

If you are seeing 81 online it's wrong. Not sure why the webpage is misreporting it. I looked at the actual data and it's 73. Boone Co mesonet site is 70 and 74 here.

Thanks Les and I started looking around at other sites and the highest I could find was 74. Not losing my mind lol

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Oct 05, 2022 1:41 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 05, 2022 1:30 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Oct 05, 2022 1:26 pm Wow I was shocked the temp has made it over 80 today. I knew the dew point was low and we would probably get to 74 or 75 but 80 is a shock

If you are seeing 81 online it's wrong. Not sure why the webpage is misreporting it. I looked at the actual data and it's 73. Boone Co mesonet site is 70 and 74 here.

Thanks Les and I started looking around at other sites and the highest I could find was 74. Not losing my mind lol

I thought the same thing for a moment. 74 as of 3pm. issue is corrected now it seems.

Starting to see freeze warnings in North Dakota with temps in some places expected in the mid 10's. This air mass started with temps below 0 in Northern Canada. Of course we will not get that cold but I believe many areas can expect temps in the 30's on Saturday morning and low 30's Sunday morning. Not sure it will be a killing frost for everyone but no doubt many plants will have their last say this week.