Ohio Valley Weather Observation & Discussion
https://absolutevorticity.com/
Maybe... too early to tell. Placement, amount of QPF and surface temps still in question.
HAO is mainly rain as well. DAY is more frz rain and I could see 0.10-0.20" of ice for the Western I-70 Corridor. That's advisory worthy. CMH gets some plain rain out of it and some light ice too. Not seeing any winter storm warnings or ice storm warnings with this one. Not for AV Country IMHO.Les even though the 2nd wave is somewhat less with precip totals don't be surprised by Wednesday morning several places could have either a winter storm watch which is mainly for frz/rain. Late February and still plenty of moisture around. Exactly where the ice becomes a problem is still up in the air and yes no pun intended. Still like the Indy area but this system has changed today and lets see if the dense cold air can make inroads or does the SE Ridge decide to stay strong and at least send warmer air up above which it should but how cold will the surface be.
Snow is almost a non issue with the second wave even further north. Sure maybe a changeover early Friday but much of the precip looks to be liquid and surface temps are going to be key. Will be watching further to the southwest and see how things set up later Wed as we can get in that zone where once the pattern sets in you can be stuck in either a 36 and rain situation or 29 and frz/rain for several hours. No doubt models further southeast and that is why we are seeing less precip but the low itself still close enough to us for a decent amount of precip. The good thing is with less precip then flooding issues are somewhat better in the short term but of course later down the road no doubt more problems with the river.tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 22, 2022 3:38 pm 18Z NAM looks to be coming in a bit wetter and colder for Thursday. Precip onset delayed. AM Rush might be okay but after that late morning and midday, possible issues. 29-30 surface temps at CVG from Thurs morning until about 4 or 5pm when we get to 32-33 degrees. About a quarter of an inch of QPF falls during this time. We eventually warm up and end as plain rain. N Burbs to I-70 Crew never do changeover to plain rain.
Moderate frz rain for I-70 Crew. 0.50-0.60" thru 1am Thurs falls as frz rain. DAY and CMH both.
All areas end as mood flakes. Low goes up the west side of the Apps thru our SE CWA.
I def think it's a good advisory event. We need one for a portion of the morning and everyone else thru Thurs night at the very least. Not sure if we'll make warning criteria. Could be close if we can get a bit cooler and more QPF involved.tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Feb 22, 2022 3:33 pmLes even though the 2nd wave is somewhat less with precip totals don't be surprised by Wednesday morning several places could have either a winter storm watch which is mainly for frz/rain. Late February and still plenty of moisture around. Exactly where the ice becomes a problem is still up in the air and yes no pun intended. Still like the Indy area but this system has changed today and lets see if the dense cold air can make inroads or does the SE Ridge decide to stay strong and at least send warmer air up above which it should but how cold will the surface be.
Les I believe their may be enough ice for someone to have a ice warning. Always believed that just because of the dense cold air. Upper levels warmer so liquid is the main type. If this system stays weaker and further south like the latest Nam shows then Thursday can become an ice skating rink. I also believe the system today is moving a little faster and maybe this helps pushing the cold front a little further south but those darn App mountains always like to throw a road block when fronts head their way.tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 22, 2022 3:51 pmI def think it's a good advisory event. We need one for a portion of the morning and everyone else thru Thurs night at the very least. Not sure if we'll make warning criteria. Could be close if we can get a bit cooler and more QPF involved.tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Feb 22, 2022 3:33 pmLes even though the 2nd wave is somewhat less with precip totals don't be surprised by Wednesday morning several places could have either a winter storm watch which is mainly for frz/rain. Late February and still plenty of moisture around. Exactly where the ice becomes a problem is still up in the air and yes no pun intended. Still like the Indy area but this system has changed today and lets see if the dense cold air can make inroads or does the SE Ridge decide to stay strong and at least send warmer air up above which it should but how cold will the surface be.
Agree, snow prospects are almost null and void.tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Feb 22, 2022 3:44 pmSnow is almost a non issue with the second wave even further north. Sure maybe a changeover early Friday but much of the precip looks to be liquid and surface temps are going to be key. Will be watching further to the southwest and see how things set up later Wed as we can get in that zone where once the pattern sets in you can be stuck in either a 36 and rain situation or 29 and frz/rain for several hours. No doubt models further southeast and that is why we are seeing less precip but the low itself still close enough to us for a decent amount of precip. The good thing is with less precip then flooding issues are somewhat better in the short term but of course later down the road no doubt more problems with the river.tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 22, 2022 3:38 pm 18Z NAM looks to be coming in a bit wetter and colder for Thursday. Precip onset delayed. AM Rush might be okay but after that late morning and midday, possible issues. 29-30 surface temps at CVG from Thurs morning until about 4 or 5pm when we get to 32-33 degrees. About a quarter of an inch of QPF falls during this time. We eventually warm up and end as plain rain. N Burbs to I-70 Crew never do changeover to plain rain.
Moderate frz rain for I-70 Crew. 0.50-0.60" thru 1am Thurs falls as frz rain. DAY and CMH both.
All areas end as mood flakes. Low goes up the west side of the Apps thru our SE CWA.
You're going heavier on the ice then me. You need some pretty heavy amounts for a rare ice storm warning.tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Feb 22, 2022 3:57 pmLes I believe their may be enough ice for someone to have a ice warning. Always believed that just because of the dense cold air. Upper levels warmer so liquid is the main type. If this system stays weaker and further south like the latest Nam shows then Thursday can become an ice skating rink. I also believe the system today is moving a little faster and maybe this helps pushing the cold front a little further south but those darn App mountains always like to throw a road block when fronts head their way.tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 22, 2022 3:51 pmI def think it's a good advisory event. We need one for a portion of the morning and everyone else thru Thurs night at the very least. Not sure if we'll make warning criteria. Could be close if we can get a bit cooler and more QPF involved.tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Feb 22, 2022 3:33 pmLes even though the 2nd wave is somewhat less with precip totals don't be surprised by Wednesday morning several places could have either a winter storm watch which is mainly for frz/rain. Late February and still plenty of moisture around. Exactly where the ice becomes a problem is still up in the air and yes no pun intended. Still like the Indy area but this system has changed today and lets see if the dense cold air can make inroads or does the SE Ridge decide to stay strong and at least send warmer air up above which it should but how cold will the surface be.