Feb 23-25 - Kitchen Sink Redux?

[tron777]

9Z SREF has the rain / ice line in the vicinity pf S Dayton burbs / N Cincy Burbs area. All areas start as sleet / frz rain Thurs morning. So the rest is for the stronger wave early Fri.

[dce]

The NAM has come in much weaker for the Wednesday night/Thursday morning wave. Not much to talk about if this solution turns out to be correct. We will see if the other models agree.

[tron777]

12Z NAM has most of the frz rain Thurs morning S of Cincinnati. A break then the rain hangs out across Central KY and moves north into the n cincy burbs,. Ice, sleet to the north of there. Toledo and S Mich for accumulating snows. This is becoming a non event for Cincinnati area on south lol accept for minor impacts Thurs morning. I could see an advisory issued for the first wave then after that just rain,

[tron777]

12Z RGEM also more NAM like with this run.

[tron777]

12Z GFS also trending that way... so weaker with the first wave allows heights to be higher and a further NW low track with the stronger wave. Light frz rain possible for Metro per GFS. Dry north of there. Good trends for those who don't want a lot of issues with this system. With the second wave, looks icy north of river. All snow north and west of our coverage area. Low track thru SE KY. Ice to rain for CVG Land and SE counties SE of I-71. Very close to 6Z run.

[tpweather]

Cold front is in central Illinois. Temp drops off about 20 degrees in a 2-3 hour period. The really cold air is further west so its not directly behind the front itself. So we will see the cold drop well south of us but how far is key how much of the more dense cold air can works its way south and east. Still concern about Thursday morning especially if we get into the upper 20's. My concern is with light frz/rain or drz folks pay less attention and all you need to do is hit an icy patch and off you go. As the day wears on we get the solar radiation and precip cuts off awhile so we should be fine after 10a. That period of 4-10a is the concern at this point

[tron777]

CMC continues the trend... I 'm sold! Looks like light sleet and frz rain for the Tri-state and points south Thurs morning. Dry up north. Then Thurs afternoon rain from N Burbs on south or ice to rain. Then ice and sleet to the north/. Snow mainly north of AV land with second wave into Fri morning. That's a wrap.

[BookNerdCarp]

School worries Thursday morning?

[tron777]

School worries Thursday morning?

Maybe... too early to tell. Placement, amount of QPF and surface temps still in question.

[BookNerdCarp]

My lips are sealed LOL

[tron777]

My lips are sealed LOL

For now... QPF to me looks light and surface temps are marginal. I could see minor icing on car tops, porches, driveways, elevated surfaces etc but that's about it. Main and well traveled roads unless it's colder and we get more precip, should be fine.

[tron777]

Looks like the 12Z Euro is crapping out the first wave too for Thurs morning. Let's see what it does with the second one. Only 0.04" of QPF at CVG to work with. Temp around 30-31.

[tron777]

I think the Euro is a little weaker, SE with the second wave but it has very little cold sector precip. A pretty sad "event" actually. Really lacking precip.

[tron777]

0.45" at CVG with the second wave, mainly rain. HAO is mainly rain as well. DAY is more frz rain and I could see 0.10-0.20" of ice for the Western I-70 Corridor. That's advisory worthy. CMH gets some plain rain out of it and some light ice too. Not seeing any winter storm warnings or ice storm warnings with this one. Not for AV Country IMHO.

[Pete1]

Bring on spring and baseball. This awful winter thankfully is almost a wrap

[tron777]

Bring on spring and baseball. This awful winter thankfully is almost a wrap

They'd better resolve the strike by Monday or the Reg Season will be delayed. May not get spring baseball this year, but they are talking so we'll see.

[tron777]

18Z NAM looks to be coming in a bump south with the first wave, at Hour 30. Let's see how the precip field looks like shortly.

[tron777]

15Z SREF coming in showing sleet and frz rain main p=type at CVG thru midday Thurs before going to rain with the stronger 2nd wave in the afternoon. Mean has temps at 31 for CVG with 0.04" of QPF falling during that time.

[tpweather]

15Z SREF coming in showing sleet and frz rain main p=type at CVG thru midday Thurs before going to rain with the stronger 2nd wave in the afternoon. Mean has temps at 31 for CVG with 0.04" of QPF falling during that time.

Les even though the 2nd wave is somewhat less with precip totals don't be surprised by Wednesday morning several places could have either a winter storm watch which is mainly for frz/rain. Late February and still plenty of moisture around. Exactly where the ice becomes a problem is still up in the air and yes no pun intended. Still like the Indy area but this system has changed today and lets see if the dense cold air can make inroads or does the SE Ridge decide to stay strong and at least send warmer air up above which it should but how cold will the surface be.

[tron777]

18Z NAM looks to be coming in a bit wetter and colder for Thursday. Precip onset delayed. AM Rush might be okay but after that late morning and midday, possible issues. 29-30 surface temps at CVG from Thurs morning until about 4 or 5pm when we get to 32-33 degrees. About a quarter of an inch of QPF falls during this time. We eventually warm up and end as plain rain. N Burbs to I-70 Crew never do changeover to plain rain.

Moderate frz rain for I-70 Crew. 0.50-0.60" thru 1am Thurs falls as frz rain. DAY and CMH both.

All areas end as mood flakes. Low goes up the west side of the Apps thru our SE CWA.

[tpweather]

18Z NAM looks to be coming in a bit wetter and colder for Thursday. Precip onset delayed. AM Rush might be okay but after that late morning and midday, possible issues. 29-30 surface temps at CVG from Thurs morning until about 4 or 5pm when we get to 32-33 degrees. About a quarter of an inch of QPF falls during this time. We eventually warm up and end as plain rain. N Burbs to I-70 Crew never do changeover to plain rain.

Moderate frz rain for I-70 Crew. 0.50-0.60" thru 1am Thurs falls as frz rain. DAY and CMH both.

All areas end as mood flakes. Low goes up the west side of the Apps thru our SE CWA.

Snow is almost a non issue with the second wave even further north. Sure maybe a changeover early Friday but much of the precip looks to be liquid and surface temps are going to be key. Will be watching further to the southwest and see how things set up later Wed as we can get in that zone where once the pattern sets in you can be stuck in either a 36 and rain situation or 29 and frz/rain for several hours. No doubt models further southeast and that is why we are seeing less precip but the low itself still close enough to us for a decent amount of precip. The good thing is with less precip then flooding issues are somewhat better in the short term but of course later down the road no doubt more problems with the river.

[tron777]

15Z SREF coming in showing sleet and frz rain main p=type at CVG thru midday Thurs before going to rain with the stronger 2nd wave in the afternoon. Mean has temps at 31 for CVG with 0.04" of QPF falling during that time.

Les even though the 2nd wave is somewhat less with precip totals don't be surprised by Wednesday morning several places could have either a winter storm watch which is mainly for frz/rain. Late February and still plenty of moisture around. Exactly where the ice becomes a problem is still up in the air and yes no pun intended. Still like the Indy area but this system has changed today and lets see if the dense cold air can make inroads or does the SE Ridge decide to stay strong and at least send warmer air up above which it should but how cold will the surface be.

I def think it's a good advisory event. We need one for a portion of the morning and everyone else thru Thurs night at the very least. Not sure if we'll make warning criteria. Could be close if we can get a bit cooler and more QPF involved.

[tpweather]

15Z SREF coming in showing sleet and frz rain main p=type at CVG thru midday Thurs before going to rain with the stronger 2nd wave in the afternoon. Mean has temps at 31 for CVG with 0.04" of QPF falling during that time.

Les even though the 2nd wave is somewhat less with precip totals don't be surprised by Wednesday morning several places could have either a winter storm watch which is mainly for frz/rain. Late February and still plenty of moisture around. Exactly where the ice becomes a problem is still up in the air and yes no pun intended. Still like the Indy area but this system has changed today and lets see if the dense cold air can make inroads or does the SE Ridge decide to stay strong and at least send warmer air up above which it should but how cold will the surface be.

I def think it's a good advisory event. We need one for a portion of the morning and everyone else thru Thurs night at the very least. Not sure if we'll make warning criteria. Could be close if we can get a bit cooler and more QPF involved.

Les I believe their may be enough ice for someone to have a ice warning. Always believed that just because of the dense cold air. Upper levels warmer so liquid is the main type. If this system stays weaker and further south like the latest Nam shows then Thursday can become an ice skating rink. I also believe the system today is moving a little faster and maybe this helps pushing the cold front a little further south but those darn App mountains always like to throw a road block when fronts head their way.

[tron777]

18Z NAM looks to be coming in a bit wetter and colder for Thursday. Precip onset delayed. AM Rush might be okay but after that late morning and midday, possible issues. 29-30 surface temps at CVG from Thurs morning until about 4 or 5pm when we get to 32-33 degrees. About a quarter of an inch of QPF falls during this time. We eventually warm up and end as plain rain. N Burbs to I-70 Crew never do changeover to plain rain.

Moderate frz rain for I-70 Crew. 0.50-0.60" thru 1am Thurs falls as frz rain. DAY and CMH both.

All areas end as mood flakes. Low goes up the west side of the Apps thru our SE CWA.

Snow is almost a non issue with the second wave even further north. Sure maybe a changeover early Friday but much of the precip looks to be liquid and surface temps are going to be key. Will be watching further to the southwest and see how things set up later Wed as we can get in that zone where once the pattern sets in you can be stuck in either a 36 and rain situation or 29 and frz/rain for several hours. No doubt models further southeast and that is why we are seeing less precip but the low itself still close enough to us for a decent amount of precip. The good thing is with less precip then flooding issues are somewhat better in the short term but of course later down the road no doubt more problems with the river.

Agree, snow prospects are almost null and void.

[tron777]

15Z SREF coming in showing sleet and frz rain main p=type at CVG thru midday Thurs before going to rain with the stronger 2nd wave in the afternoon. Mean has temps at 31 for CVG with 0.04" of QPF falling during that time.

Les even though the 2nd wave is somewhat less with precip totals don't be surprised by Wednesday morning several places could have either a winter storm watch which is mainly for frz/rain. Late February and still plenty of moisture around. Exactly where the ice becomes a problem is still up in the air and yes no pun intended. Still like the Indy area but this system has changed today and lets see if the dense cold air can make inroads or does the SE Ridge decide to stay strong and at least send warmer air up above which it should but how cold will the surface be.

I def think it's a good advisory event. We need one for a portion of the morning and everyone else thru Thurs night at the very least. Not sure if we'll make warning criteria. Could be close if we can get a bit cooler and more QPF involved.

Les I believe their may be enough ice for someone to have a ice warning. Always believed that just because of the dense cold air. Upper levels warmer so liquid is the main type. If this system stays weaker and further south like the latest Nam shows then Thursday can become an ice skating rink. I also believe the system today is moving a little faster and maybe this helps pushing the cold front a little further south but those darn App mountains always like to throw a road block when fronts head their way.

You're going heavier on the ice then me. You need some pretty heavy amounts for a rare ice storm warning.