Absolute Vorticity

ington OH
@NWSILN
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The dewpoint at Columbus (KCMH) reached 61F earlier. At 5 AM. In mid-December. This is only the 6th time in the past 60+ years the dewpoint has reached >=61F in December at the site. It most recently happened in 2015.

MJO continues trudging through 6 and flirting with 7 and the 500mb pattern along with it is slowly showing signs of changing the long standing PAC pattern. In the extended we can see the models slowly building higher heights into Western Alaska and slowly eastward. We need them moving into the GOA and beyond for the Artcic air to reach the OV. As long as the MJO behaves , eventually that should happen. Until then the pattern of 3or 4 days warm /cold continues. Warm builds this week before next weekend cold shot and hopefully it can stay longer for Christmas , or at least be close to normal. Hopefully we can get so.e flakes flying with our cold intrusions

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sun Dec 12, 2021 7:39 am MJO continues trudging through 6 and flirting with 7 and the 500mb pattern along with it is slowly showing signs of changing the long standing PAC pattern. In the extended we can see the models slowly building higher heights into Western Alaska and slowly eastward. We need them moving into the GOA and beyond for the Artcic air to reach the OV. As long as the MJO behaves , eventually that should happen. Until then the pattern of 3or 4 days warm /cold continues. Warm builds this week before next weekend cold shot and hopefully it can stay longer for Christmas , or at least be close to normal. Hopefully we can get so.e flakes flying with our cold intrusions

Great Post and the La Nina though weak should help in bringing some colder air into this part of the country. If we can move the MJO into phase 8 then an even colder episode should happen. How quickly it moves through these phases will help in determine how long the colder period lasts. Once we get into January the phases of 1 and 2 tend to be the coldest. Speaking of La Nina and yes it will go down as a weak episode but that does not mean there are times when its affects are strong and I believe that is what the current pattern shows and though models have it peaking in about a month my guess that is already happening. Sometimes the numbers are behind the curve on how the weather is performing.

Easterlies are still giving pushback to the MJO and to also throw another wrench into the equation , a developing cyclone in the tropics, possibly another reason for turtling along.

Arrows denote wind direction in Kelven wave zone

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sun Dec 12, 2021 9:03 am Easterlies are still giving pushback to the MJO and to also throw another wrench into the equation , a developing cyclone in the tropics, possibly another reason for turtling along.


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Arrows denote wind direction in Kelven wave zone


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Great battle zone and the one good thing is the cyclone looks to win this battle and that should help down the road of getting heights to go up along the west coast up into Alaska. No doubt that in November the pacific tropics were no help to us but if that area gets busy over the next several weeks at least we know the weather is more than likely going to busy in the lower 48.

Nice sunny day for the Bengals / 49'ers game with a high around 50 and a light southwest wind.

Hopefully Cincy's performance will be sunny, too, to stay in the Wild Card race.

Currently 36 here in G'ville and progged for around 45 later today.

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Sun Dec 12, 2021 11:23 am Nice sunny day for the Bengals / 49'ers game with a high around 50 and a light southwest wind.

Hopefully Cincy's performance will be sunny, too, to stay in the Wild Card race.

Currently 36 here in G'ville and progged for around 45 later today.

Hey Eric,hope you and your family are doing well. Love the Christmas season. If they can win which will not be easy and Cleveland beats Baltimore then the Bengals will have 1st place in the division.

What to expect the next couple of weeks. No doubt this week will be very mild and some showers and maybe a thundershower mid-week but this is not like the past system as the energy will be far enough part. No chance of snow this week which is one of the 4 weeks during the winter that you usually see. The week up to Christmas is really the pattern change and a week will both rain and snow will be in the forecast. Way to early for any specific event but with the STJ wide awake and all we need is the cold to the northwest to head this way. That looks to happen so can we get a White Christmas and to early for that prediction but at least the pattern gives us a fighting chance.

After next weekend cool shot, GEFs/EPS showing a warm shot leading into Christmas

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sun Dec 12, 2021 3:01 pm After next weekend cool shot, GEFs/EPS showing a warm shot leading into Christmas


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Hey Bgoney and I was wondering if the models are being affected by some tropical moisture down in the island south of Florida. Pretty rare for this time of year and just wondering if the feed back is somewhat messed up. Will watch over the next few days and see if this is a true signal or the models readjust.

tpweather wrote: ↑Sun Dec 12, 2021 5:06 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sun Dec 12, 2021 3:01 pm After next weekend cool shot, GEFs/EPS showing a warm shot leading into Christmas


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Hey Bgoney and I was wondering if the models are being affected by some tropical moisture down in the island south of Florida. Pretty rare for this time of year and just wondering if the feed back is somewhat messed up. Will watch over the next few days and see if this is a true signal or the models readjust.

The virgin Islands? I don't see anything to significant for there (Next 7 days)other than the normal trade winds moisture interacting with the land . I dont know after that after. That big time -PNA trough the next 10-14 days has to keep the SE ridge In Play off and on over that same period. But I hope the models do readjust for Christmas.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sun Dec 12, 2021 6:44 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Sun Dec 12, 2021 5:06 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sun Dec 12, 2021 3:01 pm After next weekend cool shot, GEFs/EPS showing a warm shot leading into Christmas


image.thumb.png.1b9949101f6ca8f2ccc2530746872b1f.png
image.thumb.png.0060f58fee8b04c37fe2a4c1c32ad60f.png

Hey Bgoney and I was wondering if the models are being affected by some tropical moisture down in the island south of Florida. Pretty rare for this time of year and just wondering if the feed back is somewhat messed up. Will watch over the next few days and see if this is a true signal or the models readjust.

The virgin Islands? I don't see anything to significant for there (Next 7 days)other than the normal trade winds moisture interacting with the land . I dont know after that after. That big time -PNA trough the next 10-14 days has to keep the SE ridge In Play off and on over that same period. But I hope the models do readjust for Christmas.

A few days ago there was a big storm off the northeast coast of South America which is unusual for this time of year. My guess some of that moisture is also part of the precip that is adding to the normal trade winds. Just a strange look and that is why I want to give it a few days before going either way at this point

Been gone all weekend to my Brothers so I haven't posted much. From what I can tell the cold keeps getting pushed back. Tropical convection in the West Pac is probably messing with the MJO again causing the cold to be delayed but not denied.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sun Dec 12, 2021 7:39 am MJO continues trudging through 6 and flirting with 7 and the 500mb pattern along with it is slowly showing signs of changing the long standing PAC pattern. In the extended we can see the models slowly building higher heights into Western Alaska and slowly eastward. We need them moving into the GOA and beyond for the Artcic air to reach the OV. As long as the MJO behaves , eventually that should happen. Until then the pattern of 3or 4 days warm /cold continues. Warm builds this week before next weekend cold shot and hopefully it can stay longer for Christmas , or at least be close to normal. Hopefully we can get so.e flakes flying with our cold intrusions

You’re a mean one…Mr. Grinch!

tpweather wrote: ↑Sun Dec 12, 2021 11:29 am

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Sun Dec 12, 2021 11:23 am Nice sunny day for the Bengals / 49'ers game with a high around 50 and a light southwest wind.

Hopefully Cincy's performance will be sunny, too, to stay in the Wild Card race.

Currently 36 here in G'ville and progged for around 45 later today.

Hey Eric,hope you and your family are doing well. Love the Christmas season. If they can win which will not be easy and Cleveland beats Baltimore then the Bengals will have 1st place in the division.

Hi Tim, my Mom and I are doing well and Dad finished up 28 radiation treatments for prostate cancer in late Nov just before Thanksgiving and thankfully he did very well with those. He also has to have hormonal therapy injections as part of his treatment every 3 months via Dayton Physicians network in Centerville, OH for 2 1/2 years. So far has had 2 of those, his most recent one was this past Thurs Dec 9th and he's been doing great with those, too.

We'll be having my sister, bil, niece, and nephew here for an early Christmas this week. Sis and her family coming up from Roanoke Rapids, NC (near the VA border and I-95 corridor) on Wed and my nephew who recently moved to Nashville, TN this weekend, on Thurs. We'll celebrate Christmas with them on Fri evening 12/17 after helping Dad and Mom celebrate their 60th Anniversary. Going to go to the Old Richmond Inn restaurant in Richmond, IN for the anniversary celebration. They tied the knot on 12/17/61 in Mom's hometown of Princeton, IN.

Well, the Browns did their part of the equation formula. Aggravating the Bengals struggled today and then towards late in the 2nd half they were getting things in order, subsequent OT, and then to mess up at the end 26-23. Burrow just couldn't match Kittle strategy-wise.

Currently 36 here in G'ville and progged for around the freezing mark on Mon morning.

Middle of the country going to see more record highs/record high lows this week. The severe threat is even more north this week than last , MN, SD, IA , in December!!

Good morning all! A nice Mon and Tues ahead. A warm front comes thru bringing in a few showers Tues night into early Wed. Then the 60s return to our local hood. Then we turn active with rain on Thurs and Fri ending Sat with more seasonal temps for mid Dec locally after that. Might see a touch of snow Fri morning before going over to rain, but not currently a big deal.

So much for a colder December I guess. I'm still holding out for the last week to be wintry though

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Mon Dec 13, 2021 7:12 am So much for a colder December I guess. I'm still holding out for the last week to be wintry though

I am too Charles. It may not be closer to Christmas as I originally thought but we should slowly get there in the last week of the month. Maybe the MJO can be in phase 8 for New Year's? That would kick off 2022 in the right direction.

Good Morning and how much rain do we get later this week. The big problem is where does the front stall and added energy moves along the front. We went from a non-stormy November to a very stormy December. Les you are correct we need to see the mjo head into phase 8. Phase 7 is okay early in December but the further you get into the month it becomes a milder phase. I believe that is why models are keeping the much above temps around longer. We will see and still believe next week we are more in a normal pattern for the week leading up to Christmas which is temps in the low 40's for highs and mid-upper 20's for lows. I agree about the pacific and also some decent energy has been off the northeast coast of South America recently and this has no doubt help raise heights over the southeast USA which was another player in the recent severe outbreak. To have an outbreak like that anytime during the year everything must come in place. This included the added heights which made the southeast ridge strong,dry air that has been in the southwest and southcentral states pushed into the system and a very strong cold front. Perfect storm plus timing at night did not help in terms of folks either injured or losing their lives.

Good morning Tim! Great post! I think the pattern is going to be an improving one, but it's going to take a little longer then you'd otherwise expect to get there. I think some of that West Pac tropical convection is messing with the MJO a little bit as has been the case a few other times this Fall. But we are getting there IMO just slowly.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Dec 13, 2021 7:30 am Good morning Tim! Great post! I think the pattern is going to be an improving one, but it's going to take a little longer then you'd otherwise expect to get there. I think some of that West Pac tropical convection is messing with the MJO a little bit as has been the case a few other times this Fall. But we are getting there IMO just slowly.

Good morning Les. No doubt a slow process but I agree we will get there hopefully next week. If the tellies are correct we see the AO and NAO heading at least to a more neutral state if not a little on the negative side. This can help in blocking and sending systems further to the south and allowing colder air to works its way southward. Plenty of snow cover in Canada and finally some in the northern third of the USA though even that may get erased by the mild week coming up. The Pna is one we need to watch and see how it progresses over the next couple of weeks. I would like to see a slower progression of the cold because if you get that one big push it sometimes tends to be a one shot and done deal.

Per the Aussies, we have just crossed over into Phase 7 so let's hope it can keep on moving down the road towards Phase 8. Let's hope we can take a tour through Phases 8, 1, and 2 in early January to give us some wintry fun.

12Z GFS continues the wet and active look later this week. A few showers possible with the warm front mainly NW of Cincinnati then everyone gets wet Wed night and Thurs. Front stalls then another wet low for Friday and yet another for Sat. Then a break with another wave early next week. Maybe a little wintry precip there if the cold air can get involved but not seeing a big signal for that right now. This could be a heavy rain event though which we don't need so we'll need to keep an eye open for rainfall amounts and the areas that get repeated rounds of heavy rains later this week. This is the more pressing issue.

12Z Euro is in good agreement thru the weekend but it does not show the last wave early next week like the GFS / GEFS do. CMC does but mainly some light rain for the SE counties early next week.