Rocktober 2023 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

Hey Tim... by the way, let me know whenever you need the raw model text output for Wausau. I looked up the airport code and it is CWA. When we get to tracking snow events for your new hood up there, it may come in handy.

Thanks Les!!!

No problem my friend. I hope to get some more use out of it for us all this winter. The last several winters I have not gotten my moneys worth on carrying the subscription. Not because of Accuwx, but because of Mother Nature.

[tron777]

CVG may have gotten to 73 today. That is probably going to about do it. Still short of my expectations but not a huge bust like it appeared to be a couple of hours ago.

[MVWxObserver]

CVG reached 74, CMH 72 and DAY 70 today.

[tron777]

Good morning all! I still have no changer to my forecast. I'm going to let it ride. Mostly cloudy today. Like yesterday low 70s. We should see a little more sun tomorrow so middle 70s. A small chance for rain as well on Friday but most should stay dry unless you are NW of Cincinnati. On Sat, the best chance for rain is still NW of Cincinnati, but the front will be close enough to give the rest of us a 50/50 chance. Everyone gets wet on Sunday, ending on Monday with falling temps. A season ending freeze is likely if not Tues morning then certainly by Wed morning the 1st. Temps will drop into the 40s for highs for Tues and Wed with dry conditions.

[tron777]

I'd also like to wish Roy a Happy Birthday! Hope you have a great day!

[tron777]

The GFS continues to show nothing but the foreign models continue to show our first flakes of the season on Wed (no accumulation). CMC is pretty enthusiastic about it, while the Euro has a much smaller chance. This is for Wed 11/1 as the upper low swings thru.

[Bgoney]

Latest drought map shows a slight improvement in parts of Ohio with the rest of the OV about a the same.
For parts of Midwest there have been improvements not picked up yet , (Wisconsin) , as info for this map ended Tuesday morning, so a chunk of their QPF didn’t make it into the map status

IMG_0758.png

[tron777]

12Z NAM has some light rain late Fri and into Sat with the better rains coming in later Sat afternoon. thru Sunday. 1 to 1.5" is coming in for CVG Land ending at 8pm Sunday. Wow!

[MVWxObserver]

CVG may have gotten to 73 today. That is probably going to about do it. Still short of my expectations but not a huge bust like it appeared to be a couple of hours ago.

Got adjusted 1 degree to 74.

[MVWxObserver]

HAPPY 52ND BIRTHDAY ROY!!

Enjoy your special day, Wxbuddy!

[Bgoney]

12Z NAM has some light rain late Fri and into Sat with the better rains coming in later Sat afternoon. thru Sunday. 1 to 1.5" is coming in for CVG Land ending at 8pm Sunday. Wow!

I think there’s always been an unknown in where the front stalls in the area. Anywhere from near Indy to CVGLAND to Lexington was/is on the table. An axis of heavier amounts are coming in line from models but I think not until the Friday 0z run they’ll be some agreement on where that is

[tron777]

12Z NAM has some light rain late Fri and into Sat with the better rains coming in later Sat afternoon. thru Sunday. 1 to 1.5" is coming in for CVG Land ending at 8pm Sunday. Wow!

I think there’s always been an unknown in where the front stalls in the area. Anywhere from near Indy to CVGLAND to Lexington was/is on the table. An axis of heavier amounts are coming in line from models but I think not until the Friday 0z run they’ll be some agreement on where that is

Agreed. I think the models are good with the timing. It's just the location of the frontal boundary as you said. The 12Z GFS has the best rains NW and SW of Cincy and the model continues to be the weakest as well with this system. The Foreign models have been much deeper with the trough overall.

[MVWxObserver]

Currently 72 here in G'ville and 69 at DAY.

[tron777]

73 with a dew of 59 at CVG. I just stepped outside and I certainly noticed an increase in the humidity since yesterday. Pretty warm and sticky out there IMO.

[tron777]

12Z CMC has the best rains NW of the I-71 Corridor and continues to be much deeper with the trough. It still shows a few flakes with the upper level low on Wed. as well.

[tron777]

12Z Euro has 1-2" for the heart of AV Land including the Cincinnati metro / Tristate area. While the models continue to figure out who gets the best rains, one thing I am certain on is timing. Here are my thoughts on that:

Friday - Small chance for rain, mainly NW of Cincy.
Sat - Chance of rain mainly in the morning then dry
Late Sat thru Sunday night: Rain likely all areas. Sunday looks like a washout to me.
Monday - Rain ends in the morning with falling temps.

As far as amounts go, 1-2" is likely but where is the question. To the SE of that 1-2" zone 0.50-1" appears likely so I think a good soaking rainfall for the vast majority of us is in the cards with this particular system.

It still remains to be seen with regards to flakes on Wed with the upper trough moving thru. We barely get clipped on the Euro. CMC continues to be the most generous and the GFS shows nothing. I am keeping Wed dry at this point in time until we get closer.

For temps... 70s today obviously, and tomorrow as well. 70 is possible on Saturday too but that will certainly be clouds and rain dependent as well as the location of the front. Upper 60s may also work out if the front is further south then expected. Sunday... the 60s with rain then we fall thru the 40s on Monday and down into the U20s to around 30 Halloween morning. Mid 40s Tues and Wed. Wed morning could see a hard freeze with mid to U20s possible. The growing season is over by then for our region.

[tpweather]

Forecast still looks good and just see how the different waves move along the front on Saturday and ending most likely Monday. Depending how strong a wave is it can even push the front northwest as a warm front but only so far north. Just need to see how strong these waves are and my guess probably 2-3 waves will occur. Nice and cold early next week which hopefully kills the allergy season. May be a few snow showers here on Saturday and if so I will take some pics. Probably will be taking the youngest ones to a corn maze that day. Rainfall totals will be determined by which wave becomes stronger and how long a period of rain you get. I would probably go .5-1.0 for most folks but chances are better for getting more than 1 inch compared to less then .5 inches. Saw some beautiful colors up here and you get the aspen trees which are beautiful and seems to be quite a bit more in the way of red leafs up here compared to home.

[tron777]

Good AFD from the boys highlighting much of the same things we have been talking about on here. As Tim would say... "They have been reading our posts!"

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure off to our southwest will begin to weaken Friday
into Friday night as a broad upper level trough digs down into
the Plains. As it does, a slow moving cold front will approach
from the northwest during the day on Friday and then slowly
push into our area Friday night. This will lead to a chance for
a few showers during the day on Friday with more widespread
showers and a few thunderstorms moving in from the northwest
Friday night. We will have one more mild day on Friday with
daytime highs in the low to mid 70s. With some cooler air
beginning to advect in from the northwest behind the front, lows
Friday night will range from the lower 50s in the northwest to
the lower 60s in the southeast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The country will be split between an expansive area of high pressure
over the Gulf of Mexico/Florida and a longwave, positively tilted,
troughing pattern over the northwestern US. A 700H shortwave will be
moving through the larger flow pattern, located near the Hudson Bay,
at the start of the period dragging a surface low along with it. The
associated cold front stretches all the way from Quebec down through
the Mid Atlantic and into Ark-LA-TX area.

The cold front is forecast to stall out near or through our CWA,
orientated from southwest toward northeast.. meaning we`re likely
going to be eating the temperature gradient. Highs on Saturday in
the northwest only reach the upper 50s, while highs in our southeast
climb to the low 70s. Typically, a stalled out front would bring us
repeated rounds of rainfall, however, larger forcing with this
particular boundary is marginal during daytime hours Saturday,
despite PWATs near the 90th percentile. Therefore, only went with
chance PoPs during the daytime hours.

Better forcing arrives Saturday overnight into Sunday as another
small impulse in the larger flow works its way northeast and helps
nudge the larger system east. Have highest precip probabilities
during the overnight time frame and through Sunday and repeated
rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall seem more likely during this
timeframe, although, exact locations are still TBD based on where
the boundary moves through.

After this impulse and cold front move east out of the area,
precipitation chances decrease through Monday. We`ll feel a
noticeable change in temperatures as deep and prolonged cold air
advection moves into the region. Highs on Monday reach the mid 40s
and overnight lows into Tuesday drop into the upper 20s- resulting
in our first hard freeze of the season. Similarly, Tuesday and
Wednesday highs only reach the low to mid 40s with overnight lows
continuing to fall into the 20s.

Wrap around moisture and continued cyclonic flow will allow for
periods of light showers during the first half of the work week and
our northern counties may see the first wet flakes of the year. We
dry out during the second half of the week as weak ridging moves
into place. Temperatures continue to be around 10F below

[tron777]

I will try and come back this evening after I mulch leaves. Got a bunch to do before all of this rain comes and daylight hours are growing shorter too, which gives me even less time after work. Ugh...

[tpweather]

Les sometimes I am too hard on mets but I understand they have certain parameters they must go by so it can be a problem. I know Kevin on Channel 5 uses the Euro and almost all his forecasts follow that model. That can cause a problem when a model has a pattern that it has problems with. The closer the forecast is he will change some items but for a 7 day forecast almost exactly what the Euro shows. Again I can't speak for Kevin but just what I have noticed over the years. Much easier for us to go off script because nobody is paying us for our forecasts.

[tron777]

Les sometimes I am too hard on mets but I understand they have certain parameters they must go by so it can be a problem. I know Kevin on Channel 5 uses the Euro and almost all his forecasts follow that model. That can cause a problem when a model has a pattern that it has problems with. The closer the forecast is he will change some items but for a 7 day forecast almost exactly what the Euro shows. Again I can't speak for Kevin but just what I have noticed over the years. Much easier for us to go off script because nobody is paying us for our forecasts.

Correct Tim esp your last sentence. The model or models I choose depends on the pattern, the storm system and how their performance has been. Not much more too it then that.

[Bgoney]

Whoops. Here’s the suite of models forecast on intensity for Otis at 24 hrs. With the dotted line the actual

IMG_0757.jpeg

[MVWxObserver]

CVG reached 76 and both DAY / CMH 75 today.

[tron777]

Whoops. Here’s the suite of models forecast on intensity for Otis at 24 hrs. With the dotted line the actual

As I said in the East Pac tropical thread to Tim... I cannot wait until a case study is done to see how this storm strengthened so quickly and why the models missed it so badly. This has to be the biggest intensity bust I have ever seen!

[tron777]

Good Friday to you all!!! Some light rain this morning with a few moderate pockets for the N Cincy burbs. We will catch a break later today and the 70s are still likely this afternoon. A little sunshine may even occur as well. Then another round of light rain Sat morning then we should be dry again before the motherload comes Sat night thru Sun night as we have been talking about. No changes to my forecast whatsoever. It looks to be in good shape other then trying to figure out who gets 1-2" and who gets 0.50-1". We may just have to nowcast that once we see exactly where the front stalls out.