Absolute Vorticity

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Sep 27, 2023 9:17 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 27, 2023 9:13 am Looks like a break is coming from the rain but we'll see if any of that activity to the SW can hold together and make it in here later or if it's a swing and a miss to the south.

Les can we get some sun over the next several hours with the break in the rain. If so it won't take much to form showers and thundershowers. I believe we will get some without the sun but a few hours of sun could give us a better shot of heavier rain. Sill looking at the overnight hours and see where the LLJ is located and though its not really strong and rather narrow where it sets up can produce a nice amount of rain overnight. No doubt it will be further east than last night but how far south is my concern.

I am watching Brian's video now and I think he just read your post.

My gauge has picked up .38" since overnight.

Some more nice downpours - loving it! Keeping fingers crossed for the eastern posters to get in on this liquid gold!

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 27, 2023 9:42 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Sep 27, 2023 9:17 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 27, 2023 9:13 am Looks like a break is coming from the rain but we'll see if any of that activity to the SW can hold together and make it in here later or if it's a swing and a miss to the south.

Les can we get some sun over the next several hours with the break in the rain. If so it won't take much to form showers and thundershowers. I believe we will get some without the sun but a few hours of sun could give us a better shot of heavier rain. Sill looking at the overnight hours and see where the LLJ is located and though its not really strong and rather narrow where it sets up can produce a nice amount of rain overnight. No doubt it will be further east than last night but how far south is my concern.

I am watching Brian's video now and I think he just read your post.

Love watching his video's Les and I am sure he looked at my post lol. Brian and I tend to be on the same page when forecasting but his knowledge is so great and he keeps everything at a normal level and does not go crazy.

Seeing some sunshine now here in my hood. It's a wait and see game now to see how things pan out for this afternoon and evening.

Another round of rainfall and they keep going over the same areas. Had 0.42 overnight then 0.21 this morning and another 0.09 since then. Plenty is soaking in as well which helps

We need the area in eastern Illinois,western Indiana and western Ky to clear out and provide some extra energy for development of more storms this evening which will move east overnight. How far north is still a concern and we look to be on the border but have time to watch and more of a nowcast as short term models not having a good week

I have received a total of 2.19" of rain since last night!

Wow Mike! That's awesome!!

Lunchtime totals here:

CVG - 0.43"
Me - 0.63"
Boone Co Mesonet - 0.99"

Rainfall up to 0.56" here.

12Z GFS continues to show a complete pattern change to a legit Fall like pattern with a nice strong cold front and some chilly air late in the run as well. If correct... If... the date is sometime next weekend Oct. 8th or so. 12Z CMC doesn't quite go out far enough but by Day 10, it too is showing the front dropping into the Plains and Great Lakes. The 12Z GEFS isn't done running yet but thru Day 12, it still shows a trough along the West Coast and ridging over the Lakes and New England so it's not yet ready to bite.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 27, 2023 1:40 pm 12Z GFS continues to show a complete pattern change to a legit Fall like pattern with a nice strong cold front and some chilly air late in the run as well. If correct... If... the date is sometime next weekend Oct. 8th or so. 12Z CMC doesn't quite go out far enough but by Day 10, it too is showing the front dropping into the Plains and Great Lakes. The 12Z GEFS isn't done running yet but thru Day 12, it still shows a trough along the West Coast and ridging over the Lakes and New England so it's not yet ready to bite.

Les as we know the timing will go back and forth for several more days and then some data will show up and boom the change is on. We know the signs and that helps but again when we get into the fall season there is usually a lot of back and forth and we so far the west us been cool and wet but we know they will have a period of very warm and dry with the easterly winds and you see San Fran and LA get toasty.

Is it my imagination, or are the leaves turning a few weeks earlier this year? Is it the lack of rainfall, or some other reason?

pianoman wrote: ↑Wed Sep 27, 2023 2:20 pm Is it my imagination, or are the leaves turning a few weeks earlier this year? Is it the lack of rainfall, or some other reason?

You are correct and part of it has been the dryness but we also have had many clear and cool nights which also helps in getting the leaves to change colors. The rain that we got should help the color and expect more clear nights next week so it should turn out beautiful and somewhat earlier than we have seen in recent years

Thank you!

Great posts there Tim! Work kicked my butt this afternoon so thus, the lack of posting from me. Sunny skies here now and checking radar there is not much happening in our local area. I suspect the morning rains have a lot to do with it since we couldn't build up much heating. We'll see what happens tonight into tomorrow as the guidance has another round coming in overnight tonight.

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CVG reached 75 and both DAY and CMH had 72 today.

Picked up 0.95 inches of rain overnight and this morning. I will take it!

73 in my hood today, which is still my current temp. Watching that area around IND to see if it pivots in here later on.

EDIT: CVG is 74 as of 5pm.

So far have had around .40" with this system.

Still watching that Indy activity moving SE towards us. Will it hold together is the ultimate question.

I’m sitting at .60 right now and it’s raining as a type with a rumble of thunder. Great sleeping weather!!

We got a hair under 2" of rain in 20 mins! The gutters were overflowing and our french drains were overwhelmed. Garage flooded.

0132 100 2 ENE Newburgh Warrick IN 3795 8737 Lots of hail with some of the larger stones up to quarter size. (PAH)

0155 100 10 W Rockport Spencer IN 3790 8722 Hail of at least an inch in diameter in Hatfield. (PAH)

0215 100 5 W Rockport Spencer IN 3788 8714 Report received via social media. (PAH)

0225 UNK 4 SE Macio Daviess KY 3783 8694 Corrects previous tstm wnd dmg report from 4 SE Macio. One tree down at the intersection of Highway 1389 and Yelvington-Knottsville Rd. Retransmission. (PAH)

0226 100 2 S Marion Crittenden KY 3731 8808 Late report. A few hailstones larger than quarters. (PAH)

0231 100 2 ESE Macio Daviess KY 3785 8697 Hail of at least 1 inch in diameter in Yelvington. (PAH)

0241 125 Dixon Webster KY 3752 8769 Hail covering the ground with the largest stones around a half dollar. (PAH)

0256 100 Pellville Hancock KY 3775 8682 (LMK)

0257 100 6 ENE Fredonia Caldwell KY 3723 8795 (PAH)

0308 UNK 2 NNE Muldraugh Meade KY 3796 8599 Tree down on Highway 31W on Muldraugh Hill. (LMK)

0353 125 Philpot Daviess KY 3773 8699 Hail stone slightly bigger than a quarter. (PAH)

0358 100 Whitesville Daviess KY 3768 8687 (PAH)

0358 UNK 2 SSW Whitesville Daviess KY 3766 8688 Delayed report from last night. A couple of large tree limbs blown down. (PAH)

0408 175 2 NNW Lyonia Hancock KY 3774 8675 Golfball size or larger hail in southern Hancock County. (LMK)

0435 71 2 SSW Hardinsburg Breckinridge KY 3775 8647 Kentucky Mesonet. (LMK)

0442 UNK Hardinsburg Breckinridge KY 3778 8645 Trees down in Hardinsburg ... including one on a mobile home. Windows of a residence broken by large hail. (LMK)

0444 125 Harned Breckinridge KY 3775 8642 (LMK)