Absolute Vorticity

Temp has fallen to 67 here. 0.21" from this first round.

dce wrote: ↑Wed Apr 28, 2021 5:32 pm I just saw a tweet that said Bowman Field in Louisville recently recorded 1.15 inches of rain in only 9 minutes. Now that is a downpour!

Lou.area 6pm rain totals.

Heaviest rain of 2021 atm

CVG got 0.18" Just south of me at the Boone Co mesonet site, 0.84"

.50" here

0.23” here and some thunder with the first round.

My gauge didn't even collect a trace of rain on Wed.

So thankful for more on the way overnight tonight through Thurs evening.

Forecast still looks good to me. A rainy morning Progress. Severe threat remains low. Next week looking wet through Wednesday

Good morning all! 0.52" at CVG so far as of 6am this morning. My event total as of 6:30am is 0.56". Agree fully with more rain coming this afternoon. Also agree with wet weather early next week. The only 100% dry days right now look to be Fri - Sun for us.

Looks like we are in a slight risk today.

Angelika wrote: ↑Thu Apr 29, 2021 6:50 am Looks like we are in a slight risk today.

I saw that but we're going to need some instability for that to occur. With the clouds and rain this morning, if it lasts for a while, then the severe threat is greatly reduced. Agree with Bgoney that the severe threat is low because of this. Radar looks pretty wet for a while this morning.

Good Morning and the forecast is going well though we knew it would be one where folks would get their rainfall at different times. Still most folks should get 1-2 inches but again as always some may miss on some of the heavier pockets which would lower the amounts some. Monday-Wednesday next week looks wet and this is a good thing. The mid-April- mid-June period is when I love to see rains and this tends to help in any short term droughts for the area. Still expecting a hot summer but hopefully if the rains continue the next 2 months or so this may help temper those temps.

0.40" so far today and event total of 0.70". Radar looks awesome for the next few hours here and I'll take it!

24 hour total now at CVG: 0.86" - The forecast is in fine shape as mentioned.

Agreed Tim about the active pattern getting started at the right time. Would love to see it continue all summer long but realistically, by late May or sometime in June is typically when the faucet starts shutting off. We'll see what happens this year.

Regarding the severe threat, I do agree with all the rain and clouds that the instability will be low. However, all of the CAMS and Hi-Res models do show an interesting line of storms in the 3:00-4:00 pm timeframe we will need to keep an eye on for possible local wind damage threat.

Looks like SPC has backed off the SLGT risk for today which I agree. With all the rain and clouds I think the risk for widespread severe is low but as I mentioned need to watch those storms in the 3-4p window for possible local wind impacts.

I think one final wave rides up along the front to enhance the rainfall this afternoon. The wave is evident on radar over West KY. But due to clouds and rain, I just don't see the CAPE allowing any storms to get too out of hand.

EDIT: SPC looks to be favoring along and SE of I-71 and I agree. SE Crew would have the best chance at anything severe should it occur.

StormTalk! https://www.wave3.com/2021/04/29/goode- ... ther-blog/

Updated CVG total as of 9am: 0.88"

Event total up to 1.09" in my hood - 0.79" since midnight. Looks like a break here at the moment.

Up to 1.08" now at CVG... had a nice downpour within the last half hour.

Up to 1.08" now at CVG... had a nice downpour within the last half hour.

The weather station at our farm (near Ripley, OH) is reporting an event total of 2.11" so far. This is since about 5 pm yesterday.

The Amish region of eastern PA better keep their buggies and horses at home tomorrow and tomorrow night. Even hiring out a car or van with a chauffeur could be a rough ride.

High Wind Watch

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service State College PA
358 AM EDT Thu Apr 29 2021

PAZ035-036-056>059-063>066-300000-
/O.NEW.KCTP.HW.A.0002.210430T1600Z-210501T0900Z/
Fulton-Franklin-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-
York-Lancaster-
Including the cities of McConnellsburg, Chambersburg, Newport,
Harrisburg, Hershey, Pottsville, Lebanon, Carlisle, Gettysburg,
York, and Lancaster
358 AM EDT Thu Apr 29 2021

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 to 60
mph possible.

* WHERE...Fulton, Franklin, Perry, Dauphin, Schuylkill, Lebanon,
Cumberland, Adams, York and Lancaster Counties.

* WHEN...From Friday afternoon through late Friday night.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds could blow down trees and power lines.
Widespread power outages are possible. Travel could be
difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

&&

$$

MRS/REG

A temp break here but more action rolling in shortly...