Absolute Vorticity

House of Cards wrote: ↑Mon Aug 26, 2024 8:33 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 22, 2024 8:54 am

House of Cards wrote: ↑Thu Aug 22, 2024 8:41 am Feels glorious outside!!!!! Got the lawn mowed last night, have some weed trimming to do to complete it today, but wow. Love this time of the year!

In about 48-60 hours from now, I'm not going to like it one bit!

boy, you sure weren't kidding! Wife and I went out to Germania Oktoberfest Friday night, it was perfect weather; but Saturday was nasty! Even sitting by a swimming pool. By Sunday, we ran up the white flag completely and just stayed in the house. Can't imagine how the rest of the week is going to play out. Going to be reports of people bursting into flames this week! Hoping we finally get over the hump and cool back down for the weekend!

LOL! Yes Sir... it's a good week to stay in the A/C or a swimming pool that is for sure. Hope to see the front cool us down on Sat or Sun at the latest. I wish we could get some beneficial rains in here but that is not looking too good atm due to poor timing of the frontal boundary.

Jacob755 wrote: ↑Fri Aug 23, 2024 6:47 pm

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Fri Aug 23, 2024 6:26 pm

Jacob755 wrote: ↑Fri Aug 23, 2024 6:12 pm

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Fri Aug 23, 2024 5:33 pm CVG got to 87, DAY 84 and CMH 85 today.

Hi of 88° at Delhi from my weather station so off by 1°! That’s pretty rare for me lol

Hi Jacob,

A few minutes ago I went to your FB wx site and registered for hopeful membership. I grew up in the Mt. Airy, N. College Hill, and Oakley areas of Cincy. The Super Outbreak of April 3rd, 1974 is one of the events that sparked my interest in meteorology and storm tracking e.g. I was 11 yrs old during that particular event and resided in Oakley at the time. Thankfully was no damage / destruction in the immediate Oakley area but remember listening to my Dad's transistor radio with updates from Sayler Park, Western Hills, Bridgetown etc.

Thanks! The 2011 outbreak is what I can remember That debris was falling over Cincinnati as the tornado struck in Kentucky

This forum was THE PLACE TO BE during that one! Les, Trevor, Tim, and several others had the alarm bells sounding several weeks in advance, and as the day got closer, this forum was insane. The actual day of, I think my boss was trying to decide whether to listen to me or fire me because every time I refreshed the forum, the next post(s) I read got more ominous than the last, I kept reading and saying "Oh My Gosh!" "Holy Smokes!" and the like.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 24, 2024 10:05 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Sat Aug 24, 2024 9:54 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 24, 2024 9:44 am Just got done watering the plants outside and even though the humidity isn't horrible yet, you can sure feel the warmth building. Ugh... It's going to be a cooker for Colton's football game at 12:40pm. It's his birthday today so after the game we are going to Texas Roadhouse to eat. It was his idea lol Sometimes, you would think that he is my kid instead of my Brothers'

Happy Birthday to Colton. Funny you mentioned Texas Roadhouse as I love the food. We had a golf outing on Wednesday and the food was from Texas Roadhouse.

I got the prime rib last time I was there. Good stuff!

the rolls!!!! OMG, Heaven!

House of Cards wrote: ↑Mon Aug 26, 2024 8:54 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 24, 2024 10:05 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Sat Aug 24, 2024 9:54 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 24, 2024 9:44 am Just got done watering the plants outside and even though the humidity isn't horrible yet, you can sure feel the warmth building. Ugh... It's going to be a cooker for Colton's football game at 12:40pm. It's his birthday today so after the game we are going to Texas Roadhouse to eat. It was his idea lol Sometimes, you would think that he is my kid instead of my Brothers'

Happy Birthday to Colton. Funny you mentioned Texas Roadhouse as I love the food. We had a golf outing on Wednesday and the food was from Texas Roadhouse.

I got the prime rib last time I was there. Good stuff!

the rolls!!!! OMG, Heaven!

Yes! I love the butter too!

Oh, with regards to this forum being the place to be.... hopefully, we'll get something to talk about this winter besides mild weather and wet weather like the last several seasons. The cold and snow is always 10 plus days away. I miss the excitement that builds when we get close to an event and the models continue to go up with precip / snowfall amounts instead of going down which has been the case in most of our recent winters.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 26, 2024 8:57 am

House of Cards wrote: ↑Mon Aug 26, 2024 8:54 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 24, 2024 10:05 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Sat Aug 24, 2024 9:54 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 24, 2024 9:44 am Just got done watering the plants outside and even though the humidity isn't horrible yet, you can sure feel the warmth building. Ugh... It's going to be a cooker for Colton's football game at 12:40pm. It's his birthday today so after the game we are going to Texas Roadhouse to eat. It was his idea lol Sometimes, you would think that he is my kid instead of my Brothers'

Happy Birthday to Colton. Funny you mentioned Texas Roadhouse as I love the food. We had a golf outing on Wednesday and the food was from Texas Roadhouse.

I got the prime rib last time I was there. Good stuff!

the rolls!!!! OMG, Heaven!

Yes! I love the butter too!

Oh, with regards to this forum being the place to be.... hopefully, we'll get something to talk about this winter besides mild weather and wet weather like the last several seasons. The cold and snow is always 10 plus days away. I miss the excitement that builds when we get close to an event and the models continue to go up with precip / snowfall amounts instead of going down which has been the case in most of our recent winters.

I agree! I'm hoping we can get back to some of those winters where I could put on "Where Eagles Dare" and "Ice Station Zebra" while that beautiful white gold falls outside our back picture window! I know we'll get back there eventually. You know my silly theory, I've been paying attention to Lakes Mead and Powell out west, they went from all time lows to slowly getting deeper again. During the crazy winters in the 70's and 80's around here, those lakes were pretty full meaning there was more moisture out there which I think aided us in having the bonanza winters we had then.

House of Cards wrote: ↑Mon Aug 26, 2024 9:08 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 26, 2024 8:57 am

House of Cards wrote: ↑Mon Aug 26, 2024 8:54 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 24, 2024 10:05 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Sat Aug 24, 2024 9:54 am

Happy Birthday to Colton. Funny you mentioned Texas Roadhouse as I love the food. We had a golf outing on Wednesday and the food was from Texas Roadhouse.

I got the prime rib last time I was there. Good stuff!

the rolls!!!! OMG, Heaven!

Yes! I love the butter too!

Oh, with regards to this forum being the place to be.... hopefully, we'll get something to talk about this winter besides mild weather and wet weather like the last several seasons. The cold and snow is always 10 plus days away. I miss the excitement that builds when we get close to an event and the models continue to go up with precip / snowfall amounts instead of going down which has been the case in most of our recent winters.

I agree! I'm hoping we can get back to some of those winters where I could put on "Where Eagles Dare" and "Ice Station Zebra" while that beautiful white gold falls outside our back picture window! I know we'll get back there eventually. You know my silly theory, I've been paying attention to Lakes Mead and Powell out west, they went from all time lows to slowly getting deeper again. During the crazy winters in the 70's and 80's around here, those lakes were pretty full meaning there was more moisture out there which I think aided us in having the bonanza winters we had then.

I'm just afraid of that very -PDO persisting. I've mentioned it in our early winter thoughts thread already. We need a +PDO to get back into the game. We'll see though, so far the La Nina is not materializing as indicated by the models. We will have a very westerly QBO too. I'd be going gung ho for a cold winter ahead if it weren't; for the very negative PDO. That is why I am currently going mild unfortunately. We'll see though. Plenty of time for something positive to break our way since it's only late August.

We've got to get thru this heat and drought first. That is the more pressing issue. Ensemble guidance is still suggesting that the core of the heat for early Sept, returns to the S Plains and SW CONUS. The trough does not look as deep as it once was though so I'd expect 80s instead of 70s. Avg highs for early Sept are still in the low to mid 80s so seasonal temps upcoming once we get thru this week. The lack of rain though is probably what concerns me the most.

Good Morning and the temps starting to rise and dews starting to fall. We are lucky that we are not seeing the same temps and dew points above 67 during the afternoon. Yes still hot and nasty but could be much worse.

Dew point dropping to 60 and we should see a nice 6-8 degree rise in temp by noon. Will watch the dew point all afternoon and if stays near 60 then getting to 95 is going to happen

Agreed Tim! Yesterday at this time (11am) CVG had 85 with a dew of 65. Today we sit at 84 but the dew is much lower at 60. Mid 90s should not be a problem today due to the drier air mixing down to the surface. That is what a drought can do for you, temp wise. Unfortunately, those of you on the forum who have called for the upper 90s this week, maybe spot on!

88 as of 1pm at CVG. 90 should be doable within the next hour I would say. Dewpoint is at 63. Yesterday at this time, it was at 64.

12Z GFS continues to look scattered with its coverage of rainfall. Thru the next 10 days, about 0.40" for CVG. Assuming that is correct, that isn't much considering the temps we are seeing this week and the lack of ground moisture. The fantasy tropical systems in the Gulf the GFS once had for the 1st week of Sept are also gone so it does not look like we will see any help from the tropics anytime soon.

Alright, well the GFS wants to make a liar out of me and it finally does show a Gulf system towards the end its run. Complete fantasy at this point, just like when it shows snow in the winter.

Hey Les and a couple items. First the fantasy tropical system and the gfs tends to throw these out especially during August and September. The model tends to lean towards the mean and this far out that is about you can do. Will there be a storm and maybe but this far out and putting your money on a storm and location would not be wise lol. Second I thought with the dew points lowering temps would quickly rise but and many times we have that included. We did have some clouds in here between 11a-1p for a short period and even some high clouds this time of year can help in keeping temps down a degree or two before full sun is available. We have the same amount of sun and angle this time of year that we would see in late April. Still going to be hot and whether its 93 or 96 really is not going to matter much on how it feels.

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Aug 26, 2024 1:27 pm Hey Les and a couple items. First the fantasy tropical system and the gfs tends to throw these out especially during August and September. The model tends to lean towards the mean and this far out that is about you can do. Will there be a storm and maybe but this far out and putting your money on a storm and location would not be wise lol. Second I thought with the dew points lowering temps would quickly rise but and many times we have that included. We did have some clouds in here between 11a-1p for a short period and even some high clouds this time of year can help in keeping temps down a degree or two before full sun is available. We have the same amount of sun and angle this time of year that we would see in late April. Still going to be hot and whether its 93 or 96 really is not going to matter much on how it feels.

I guess the only saving grace Tim, is that we don't have dews in the 70s like the Plains States where the corn this time of year adds more moisture to the air. For our area, this is bad in terms of getting rainfall, but good with regards to the heat index.

Exactly Les and no doubt the amount of corn in the mid-west just adds water to the air. We need the rain but again its dry season for us and always nice to see rain this time of year but happens seldom unless we have a tropical system. Btw where are those tropical systems hiding and going to be very hard to see some of those higher numbers in terms of storms if we don't see any in the next week or so.

90 as of 2pm at CVG. Dew has dropped back down to 62. Still have about 2 or 3 hours of heating left.

Tim.... I agree. I think those hyperactive tropical forecasts are going to bust. Could we still see an avg season though> Certainly could!

Still looks like Tuesday and Wednesday should be the hottest days and I am torn on Thursday though it will be hot I am just not sure how hot I want to go that day. Still believe 95-97 doable the next 2 days and then maybe 92-94 on Thursday. Still believe the models are underestimating the cooler air coming in next week and I believe we have a few days in the upper 70's for highs before heading back towards the low 80's in the middle of next week

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Aug 26, 2024 2:21 pm Still looks like Tuesday and Wednesday should be the hottest days and I am torn on Thursday though it will be hot I am just not sure how hot I want to go that day. Still believe 95-97 doable the next 2 days and then maybe 92-94 on Thursday. Still believe the models are underestimating the cooler air coming in next week and I believe we have a few days in the upper 70's for highs before heading back towards the low 80's in the middle of next week

Agreed Tim on Tues and Wed being the hottest days. A slim chance that we could get a t-storm too for Wed, but I still believe areas North and West of us have the best chance as the better moisture and forcing will be up that way,

93 again here today IMBY.

Last week was the first time that we’ve seen D3 in Ohio since 2012, and now we’re about 12% to 12.5% of the state in D3. This is the most D3 coverage we’ve seen in the state since the inception of the U.S. Drought Monitor. Of course that will expand , but will we see some never before seen D4 in parts of Ohio in the days to come ? Probably a good bet at this point.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Aug 26, 2024 4:46 pm Last week was the first time that we’ve seen D3 in Ohio since 2012, and now we’re about 12% to 12.5% of the state in D3. This is the most D3 coverage we’ve seen in the state since the inception of the U.S. Drought Monitor. Of course that will expand , but will we see some never before seen D4 in parts of Ohio in the days to come ? Probably a good bet at this point.

I would say that is a given for SE Ohio. I sure hope the wildfire season isn't bad this autumn. It could be if we don't see some rain.

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Heat index values near 100 on Tuesday and 100 to 104 on
Wednesday.

* WHERE...Portions of east central and southeast Indiana, northeast
and northern Kentucky, and central, south central, southwest, and
west central Ohio.

* WHEN...From noon Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Wednesday.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Aug 26, 2024 4:46 pm Last week was the first time that we’ve seen D3 in Ohio since 2012, and now we’re about 12% to 12.5% of the state in D3. This is the most D3 coverage we’ve seen in the state since the inception of the U.S. Drought Monitor. Of course that will expand , but will we see some never before seen D4 in parts of Ohio in the days to come ? Probably a good bet at this point.

Hey Bgoney, do you know when the U.S.Drought Monitor went into effect. I know as a kid we had droughts and some just like this but was not sure when they first started the program

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 26, 2024 4:48 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Aug 26, 2024 4:46 pm Last week was the first time that we’ve seen D3 in Ohio since 2012, and now we’re about 12% to 12.5% of the state in D3. This is the most D3 coverage we’ve seen in the state since the inception of the U.S. Drought Monitor. Of course that will expand , but will we see some never before seen D4 in parts of Ohio in the days to come ? Probably a good bet at this point.

I would say that is a given for SE Ohio. I sure hope the wildfire season isn't bad this autumn. It could be if we don't see some rain.

Great Post Les and especially if we get the really dry air with low humidity this no doubt will heighten the wildfire season.