Absolute Vorticity

12Z GFS is even faster yet with its solution. Most of us are dry on Friday minus locations NW of Cincy late Fri into Fri night. A period of light rain on Sat esp from the Metro on north. Everyone gets wet on Sunday ending Monday afternoon as the front passes thru. Dry and cold for Halloween.

73 as of the 2pm reading at CVG. Good stuff for late Rocktober! Soak it up all... soak it up!

Have reached the projected high via ILN at 77 degrees. Topped out at 79!

12Z Euro now in EXCELLENT agreement with the GFS. My forecast is now as follows:

Today thru Thurs: Dry and in the 70s.
Fri and Sat: A spotty shower or two possible, highs in the 70s.
Sun into Mon: Rain likely. Temps in the U60s Sun with falling temps on Mon after the front passes.
Halloween: Dry and chilly with highs in the middle 40s. Temps dropping into the upper 30s for Trick-or-treat time.

My forecast rainfall amounts with this next system: 1" plus NW of I-71. 0.50 to 1" along the I-71 corridor. 0.50" or less SE of I-71.

EDIT: Depending on clouds / wind speeds, a season ending freeze appears possible if not Halloween morning, the morning of 11/1.

I see Wausau has nearly 1.25 inches of rain and more to come tonight. I believe we are seeing these systems have more moisture involved and one reason we are getting the warmth and cold from the north to come together. For Sunday and Monday this could be one of those systems and more than one that rides up a cold front. We may see 2 maybe 3 low pressures move along this front and each time it passes the front moves a little further south. We can do well with this set up and way too early for any forecast of rainfall amounts but I believe getting over the inch mark seems likely for some folks. Usually though with this set up everyone gets in on the rain and usually over 1/2 inch which would again help. I agree about the freeze Les talked about and probably the morning of the 1st and 2nd is the most likely period. The gfs trying to form a decent tropical system south of Florida in the long term. Once again too early but the pattern fits a tropical system but how far north will this one go and since we are in November never easy to get one even into Florida.

Going to depend where or how far SE the stationary front can sag and hang for a bit into the OV to determine decent qpf for the weekend. Still a a few days away but a looming screw zone to the SE of the front is in play

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 24, 2023 2:53 pm 12Z Euro now in EXCELLENT agreement with the GFS. My forecast is now as follows:

Today thru Thurs: Dry and in the 70s.
Fri and Sat: A spotty shower or two possible, highs in the 70s.
Sun into Mon: Rain likely. Temps in the U60s Sun with falling temps on Mon after the front passes.
Halloween: Dry and chilly with highs in the middle 40s. Temps dropping into the upper 30s for Trick-or-treat time.

My forecast rainfall amounts with this next system: 1" plus NW of I-71. 0.50 to 1" along the I-71 corridor. 0.50" or less SE of I-71.

EDIT: Depending on clouds / wind speeds, a season ending freeze appears possible if not Halloween morning, the morning of 11/1.

Reminds me of a snowfall forecast for our area. How often do we use the same dividing lines for a winter storm?! I know. Soon enough.

CVG reached 74 and 78 in both DAY / CMH today.

Good Morning and update on Wausau as they have got over 3.6 inches of rainfall. That will kill a drought and they were about 2 inches below normal for the year so not horrible but this will wipe out the drought. They expect at least another 1/2 inch over the next few days before it turns cold.

Locally forecast still looks good and I did see those clouds in the afternoon kept the temp down a few degrees. How much rain do we get and hopefully everyone gets at least 1/2 inch but hopefully more folks will be closer to the 1 inch. That would not wipe out the drought but every bit helps and looks like we are starting to get busier in November and still believe the pattern increases severe chances in the next few weeks.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Oct 25, 2023 6:54 am Good Morning and update on Wausau as they have got over 3.6 inches of rainfall. That will kill a drought and they were about 2 inches below normal for the year so not horrible but this will wipe out the drought. They expect at least another 1/2 inch over the next few days before it turns cold.

Locally forecast still looks good and I did see those clouds in the afternoon kept the temp down a few degrees. How much rain do we get and hopefully everyone gets at least 1/2 inch but hopefully more folks will be closer to the 1 inch. That would not wipe out the drought but every bit helps and looks like we are starting to get busier in November and still believe the pattern increases severe chances in the next few weeks.

3.6” ? That’s 6 weeks worth of Qpf in my hood, good for them and good for all of the central US the last few days. Setup for the weekend still depends on position of quasi stationary boundary and the timing of the waves of energy when they ride along it.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Oct 25, 2023 7:10 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Oct 25, 2023 6:54 am Good Morning and update on Wausau as they have got over 3.6 inches of rainfall. That will kill a drought and they were about 2 inches below normal for the year so not horrible but this will wipe out the drought. They expect at least another 1/2 inch over the next few days before it turns cold.

Locally forecast still looks good and I did see those clouds in the afternoon kept the temp down a few degrees. How much rain do we get and hopefully everyone gets at least 1/2 inch but hopefully more folks will be closer to the 1 inch. That would not wipe out the drought but every bit helps and looks like we are starting to get busier in November and still believe the pattern increases severe chances in the next few weeks.

3.6” ? That’s 6 weeks worth of Qpf in my hood, good for them and good for all of the central US the last few days. Setup for the weekend still depends on position of quasi stationary boundary and the timing of the waves of energy when they ride along it.

I agree and this has been one the strongest southeast ridges we have had in sometime and that can hold back the front to the northwest and sure we get rainfall but not the 1 inch plus with a front on top of us. Will be close and models will adjust over the next few days. Warm fighting cold which in one item we need for a decent rainfall. Lets hope this southeast decides not to stake out this winter and normally that does not happen in El Nino years but when it happens can be quite strong.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Oct 25, 2023 7:10 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Oct 25, 2023 6:54 am Good Morning and update on Wausau as they have got over 3.6 inches of rainfall. That will kill a drought and they were about 2 inches below normal for the year so not horrible but this will wipe out the drought. They expect at least another 1/2 inch over the next few days before it turns cold.

Locally forecast still looks good and I did see those clouds in the afternoon kept the temp down a few degrees. How much rain do we get and hopefully everyone gets at least 1/2 inch but hopefully more folks will be closer to the 1 inch. That would not wipe out the drought but every bit helps and looks like we are starting to get busier in November and still believe the pattern increases severe chances in the next few weeks.

3.6” ? That’s 6 weeks worth of Qpf in my hood, good for them and good for all of the central US the last few days. Setup for the weekend still depends on position of quasi stationary boundary and the timing of the waves of energy when they ride along it.

The official total for 10/24 was 3.89 which is a record. They have had rain overnight and more expected the next few days so 5 inches is possible. My son had mentioned about 6 weeks ago how is pond was really low but my guess that one is doing just fine.

Sort of wild but the 4 years in Greenville,SC turned out to be very wet and of course in Wausau,Wi started out dry but mother nature is working her magic once again. Bgoney if only my son had moved back here we would be okay lol

Good morning folks! Cloudy with a few sprinkles out there but nothing measurable is expected until Friday. On Friday that would be locations NW of Cincinnati. For us locally, rain chances resume on Sat and I am going with likely POPS still for Sunday, ending on Monday. Dry and cold for Halloween. Basically, I have no changes to my forecast that I posted yesterday afternoon.

Cloudy and somewhat cool outside today though when the sun makes a showing it warms up a few degrees but falls once the clouds move in again. Big bust on models for temps and again we see this in the fall and winter that clouds in this part of the world makes a huge difference and something that is not programmed into the computers. One thing to miss by 2 or 3 degrees but we are talking 5-10 degrees. Hopefully the local mets put this is their equation on Monday when making a 5 day forecast.

12Z GFS keeps the bulk of the heaviest rains NW of Cincinnati until later on Sunday when the front gets close enough to get us more involved. Frontal passage still occurs early on Monday with falling temps in the afternoon. Still like dry but chilly weather for the kiddos. Mid 40s for the high on Halloween still looking good.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Oct 25, 2023 12:43 pm Cloudy and somewhat cool outside today though when the sun makes a showing it warms up a few degrees but falls once the clouds move in again. Big bust on models for temps and again we see this in the fall and winter that clouds in this part of the world makes a huge difference and something that is not programmed into the computers. One thing to miss by 2 or 3 degrees but we are talking 5-10 degrees. Hopefully the local mets put this is their equation on Monday when making a 5 day forecast.

Yes Sir! I will most likely fail on temps today also. The airmass is too dry over us for measurable rainfall but the clouds are certainly impacting temps. Per visible satellite, the sun is shining nicely just south of NKY. Figures... Mid 70s over Central KY at this time.

I’ve got 72 here partly sunny

As of this post, CVG is still holding at 66 degrees, Same with my hood and Boone Co mesonet sites.

12z Euro also keeping the heavier rains NW of us thru Saturday. If you have outdoor plans I advise Sat vs Sun that is for sure. Only spotty rains are possible Fri / Sat with Sunday looking like a fairly wet day across the area. Action ends on Monday once the front passes with falling temps as previously stated. I still like my forecasted rainfall amounts too from the other day. No changes from me.

Euro has some snow showers also on Wed 11/1. Not that I buy it from happening but it is worth posting. Surface temps are way too warm for anything to stick but the airmass is cold enough upstairs per the Euro.

CVG:

WED 18Z 01-NOV 5.7 -7.3 1020 53 90 0.02 541 525
THU 00Z 02-NOV 4.5 -6.2 1022 59 53 0.03 544 526

Chance of snow late Saturday and Sunday in Wausau and hopefully I can take a few pics. Going to be cold this weekend but love the cold weather. May get a dusting up there but I will take snow anywhere. After the cold snap next week I expect some milder temps and pretty normal for us in early November. Hopefully we can get a freeze to help in the allergy department.

71 now at CVG per the 4pm reading. Sun is starting to come out. Maybe a late day rally for temps? Agreed Tim in the allergy dept. Hoping we can get down into the upper 20s next week to put an end to it even here locally.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Oct 25, 2023 1:21 pm I’ve got 72 here partly sunny

I finally hit 70 in the last few minutes.

Hey Tim... by the way, let me know whenever you need the raw model text output for Wausau. I looked up the airport code and it is CWA. When we get to tracking snow events for your new hood up there, it may come in handy.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 25, 2023 4:10 pm Hey Tim... by the way, let me know whenever you need the raw model text output for Wausau. I looked up the airport code and it is CWA. When we get to tracking snow events for your new hood up there, it may come in handy.

Thanks Les!!!