Ohio Valley Weather Observation & Discussion
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I agree Les and I believe the models once again is incorrect today with rainfall location. Just to far north imo. We will see but though the pattern is more like late spring/early summer its still fall and I put that into my equation of where the front may end up. I still like the set up overnight into Thursday morning and its going to be a close call for us locally but folks in the Louisville-Lexington area may be in prime target but will see how things are setting up later today.
Models have been showing Central KY as getting 2-3" out of the deal. Our SW forecast area got that last night just SW of me. Southern portions of Boone Co got an inch plus. So it was close lol I'm just happy to receive what I did. Folks in our northern counties and NW unfortunately will receive the lower amounts with this system. Models were indeed wrong with the I-70 Crew scoring big. DAY only 0.07" and CMH didn't get anything. I busted badly for that region of our forecast area.tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Sep 27, 2023 7:50 amI agree Les and I believe the models once again is incorrect today with rainfall location. Just to far north imo. We will see but though the pattern is more like late spring/early summer its still fall and I put that into my equation of where the front may end up. I still like the set up overnight into Thursday morning and its going to be a close call for us locally but folks in the Louisville-Lexington area may be in prime target but will see how things are setting up later today.
The gfs was the model that targeted central Ky first. You can see the rain moving north and east with the warm front but how far north does it move and the rain should taper down in the next couple of hours. Plenty of moisture around and different triggers out there so I don't believe it hurts the chances for more development later this afternoon. Models have certain problems and I understand because they see certain things and point out rain totals but the problem is when one area like in Northern Illinois got over 6 inches in a few areas overnight and the models many times will try and spread that kind of rainfall over a larger area so you get the winners and losers in terms of rainfalltron777 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 27, 2023 8:03 amModels have been showing Central KY as getting 2-3" out of the deal. Our SW forecast area got that last night just SW of me. Southern portions of Boone Co got an inch plus. So it was close lol I'm just happy to receive what I did. Folks in our northern counties and NW unfortunately will receive the lower amounts with this system. Models were indeed wrong with the I-70 Crew scoring big. DAY only 0.07" and CMH didn't get anything. I busted badly for that region of our forecast area.tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Sep 27, 2023 7:50 amI agree Les and I believe the models once again is incorrect today with rainfall location. Just to far north imo. We will see but though the pattern is more like late spring/early summer its still fall and I put that into my equation of where the front may end up. I still like the set up overnight into Thursday morning and its going to be a close call for us locally but folks in the Louisville-Lexington area may be in prime target but will see how things are setting up later today.
Les I agree 100p/c and though we can get some thunder and lightning later today and overnight the main item for us should be heavier rounds of rain and hopefully everyone gets in on these.tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 27, 2023 8:19 am Great post Tim! Models do not handle convection well sometimes. The Chicago example and what we are seeing with rainfall distribution right now in our local area is another.
Currently, there is a weak surface low just to the west of Evansville which will be ridging along the warm front today. To the south of it, there is now a slight risk for severe wx issued for Central KY. There is some clearing attm down that way just south of us as well. For us, the marginal risk is good since we are near or just north of the warm front and severe wx can sometimes occur in that area. Again for the counties we forecast for, severe wx is isolated. The better CAPE will be over Central KY to the south of the warm front and just ahead of the surface low.
Yes I agree Les and I know Bgoney has been very dry this summer and early fall. What is nice to see is how green it gets with a decent rainfall this time of year. Sure will have some areas that remain brown and went dormant but my grass is looking wonderful at least in color this morning.tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 27, 2023 8:27 am Tim, I'm getting a downpour right now. Every little bit helps and adds up over time. I really hope folks like Bgoney who have struggled all summer long with the lack of rainfall can get something good with this system. Hopefully, he'll have time to check in today.
My backyard needs a lot of help since it faces south lol but the front faces north and it is much greener now then it was yesterday! I love that KY Fescue 31 grass. Typically when it gets water, it comes right back. Very drought tolerant.tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Sep 27, 2023 8:33 amYes I agree Les and I know Bgoney has been very dry this summer and early fall. What is nice to see is how green it gets with a decent rainfall this time of year. Sure will have some areas that remain brown and went dormant but my grass is looking wonderful at least in color this morning.tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 27, 2023 8:27 am Tim, I'm getting a downpour right now. Every little bit helps and adds up over time. I really hope folks like Bgoney who have struggled all summer long with the lack of rainfall can get something good with this system. Hopefully, he'll have time to check in today.
I agree Tim! Getting some heavy rain now! It is headed your way my friend, enjoy! This system should help us get thru this weekend and next week's dry spell and 80 degree temps. I am still uncertain is to when that +PNA pattern returns. The EPS and GEFS are showing some hints of it trying to come back at the end of their model runs. If it's correct, we are 2 weeks away from it happening. I will wait another week to see if it gets can kicked or not. If it continues to get closer in time, then there will be some validity to that.tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Sep 27, 2023 8:41 am Rain has started once again. Keep it coming because after Thursday it may be 7-10 days before the next chance though I am seeing changes in the overall pattern and once the tropics slow down this should allow heights in the west to go up and we should see more troughs in the east..
I agree Les but we know it will happen and though we have several 80 degree days I don't see dew points getting high so another pleasant streak of weather heading this way plus with the rain the leaves should turn a nicer color before falling. Off topic but with the way tropical systems have been coming across the Atlantic my guess this will no doubt cool the ocean waters quite a bit and that is good since they have been very warm. The GOM and especially the western area is very warm and still believe this could add to the second severe season we normally see in the falltron777 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 27, 2023 8:45 amI agree Tim! Getting some heavy rain now! It is headed your way my friend, enjoy! This system should help us get thru this weekend and next week's dry spell and 80 degree temps. I am still uncertain is to when that +PNA pattern returns. The EPS and GEFS are showing some hints of it trying to come back at the end of their model runs. If it's correct, we are 2 weeks away from it happening. I will wait another week to see if it gets can kicked or not. If it continues to get closer in time, then there will be some validity to that.tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Sep 27, 2023 8:41 am Rain has started once again. Keep it coming because after Thursday it may be 7-10 days before the next chance though I am seeing changes in the overall pattern and once the tropics slow down this should allow heights in the west to go up and we should see more troughs in the east..
The warm Gulf could also help to feed storm systems in the winter with an active STJ per the El Nino. Just hope it isn't too much or we get those nasty cutters we all know and love.tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Sep 27, 2023 8:49 amI agree Les but we know it will happen and though we have several 80 degree days I don't see dew points getting high so another pleasant streak of weather heading this way plus with the rain the leaves should turn a nicer color before falling. Off topic but with the way tropical systems have been coming across the Atlantic my guess this will no doubt cool the ocean waters quite a bit and that is good since they have been very warm. The GOM and especially the western area is very warm and still believe this could add to the second severe season we normally see in the falltron777 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 27, 2023 8:45 amI agree Tim! Getting some heavy rain now! It is headed your way my friend, enjoy! This system should help us get thru this weekend and next week's dry spell and 80 degree temps. I am still uncertain is to when that +PNA pattern returns. The EPS and GEFS are showing some hints of it trying to come back at the end of their model runs. If it's correct, we are 2 weeks away from it happening. I will wait another week to see if it gets can kicked or not. If it continues to get closer in time, then there will be some validity to that.tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Sep 27, 2023 8:41 am Rain has started once again. Keep it coming because after Thursday it may be 7-10 days before the next chance though I am seeing changes in the overall pattern and once the tropics slow down this should allow heights in the west to go up and we should see more troughs in the east..
Les I agree and believe its going to be a very stormy season in the south. What does that mean for us is always tricky. Many times just north of the jet in an El Nino season becomes very dry but not every time and especially if we end up with a low end El Nino. The next month should be fun to watch as we try to get an ideal of what the winter may look like. Last year was a bust in so many ways and hopefully Mother Nature evens that out this season.tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 27, 2023 8:58 amThe warm Gulf could also help to feed storm systems in the winter with an active STJ per the El Nino. Just hope it isn't too much or we get those nasty cutters we all know and love.tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Sep 27, 2023 8:49 amI agree Les but we know it will happen and though we have several 80 degree days I don't see dew points getting high so another pleasant streak of weather heading this way plus with the rain the leaves should turn a nicer color before falling. Off topic but with the way tropical systems have been coming across the Atlantic my guess this will no doubt cool the ocean waters quite a bit and that is good since they have been very warm. The GOM and especially the western area is very warm and still believe this could add to the second severe season we normally see in the falltron777 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 27, 2023 8:45 amI agree Tim! Getting some heavy rain now! It is headed your way my friend, enjoy! This system should help us get thru this weekend and next week's dry spell and 80 degree temps. I am still uncertain is to when that +PNA pattern returns. The EPS and GEFS are showing some hints of it trying to come back at the end of their model runs. If it's correct, we are 2 weeks away from it happening. I will wait another week to see if it gets can kicked or not. If it continues to get closer in time, then there will be some validity to that.tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Sep 27, 2023 8:41 am Rain has started once again. Keep it coming because after Thursday it may be 7-10 days before the next chance though I am seeing changes in the overall pattern and once the tropics slow down this should allow heights in the west to go up and we should see more troughs in the east..
Les can we get some sun over the next several hours with the break in the rain. If so it won't take much to form showers and thundershowers. I believe we will get some without the sun but a few hours of sun could give us a better shot of heavier rain. Sill looking at the overnight hours and see where the LLJ is located and though its not really strong and rather narrow where it sets up can produce a nice amount of rain overnight. No doubt it will be further east than last night but how far south is my concern.
