Re: December 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Fri Dec 10, 2021 11:27 am
A little late to the game but the spc has finally moved all levels north and east. Chunk of tri-state in enhanced
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Absolute Vorticity
Ohio Valley Weather Observation & Discussion
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December 2021 Weather Discussion
Page 18 of 39
Re: December 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Fri Dec 10, 2021 11:30 am
Re: December 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Fri Dec 10, 2021 11:41 am
Some mods are really focused in on either side of the I-71 coridor
Re: December 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Fri Dec 10, 2021 11:48 am
SPC pulled the trigger too and issued a Moderate risk with a 15% TOR hatched area for the region of SE MO, NE AR, Western TN, and Western KY. Incredible to see this in December!
Re: December 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Fri Dec 10, 2021 11:54 am
SRH after midnight to dawn for our region is generally in the 400-600 range . That range can possibly produce strong tornadoes
Re: December 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Fri Dec 10, 2021 11:56 am
12z GFS still going wild with wind gusts tonight with widespread 55-60+ mph gusts!
3km NAM has gusts over 50 for everyone as well!
3km NAM has gusts over 50 for everyone as well!
Re: December 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Fri Dec 10, 2021 11:58 am
I'm not sure on the supercell part yet for us, but the squall line with the front just on its own, should have embedded QLCS tornadoes within the line tomorrow morning. Any supercells before that will be nasty! 9Z SREF has a 75% bullseye in the moderate risk area for the Significant tornado ingredients parameter and about 30% for Louisville. 15% for us. That was from this morning though. 15Z run later this afternoon will be interesting to see if that changes or not.
Re: December 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Fri Dec 10, 2021 11:59 am
3km NAM
GFS
Pick your poison I guess!
GFS
Pick your poison I guess!
Re: December 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Fri Dec 10, 2021 12:01 pm
Current radar has a few showers in our S counties associated with the warm front. Nothing severe with this of course but once the warm front passes, the humidity should really begin to go up and the winds should start to increase some as well as the temp.
Re: December 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Fri Dec 10, 2021 12:03 pm
60 degree dewpoints nosing into western Kentucky currently!
Re: December 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Fri Dec 10, 2021 12:08 pm
It's close for cvgland. The corridor from Louisville to Indy are really under the guntron777 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 10, 2021 11:58 amI'm not sure on the supercell part yet for us, but the squall line with the front just on its own, should have embedded QLCS tornadoes within the line tomorrow morning. Any supercells before that will be nasty! 9Z SREF has a 75% bullseye in the moderate risk area for the Significant tornado ingredients parameter and about 30% for Louisville. 15% for us. That was from this morning though. 15Z run later this afternoon will be interesting to see if that changes or not.
Re: December 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Fri Dec 10, 2021 12:16 pm
Agreed... the I-65 corridor is very concerning. It is close for us down here in the SW area of the Tri-state, there is no doubt. If this system were to speed up a tad more that's really all it would take even for CVG. Lots to watch with this system of course.Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Dec 10, 2021 12:08 pmIt's close for cvgland. The corridor from Louisville to Indy are really under the guntron777 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 10, 2021 11:58 amI'm not sure on the supercell part yet for us, but the squall line with the front just on its own, should have embedded QLCS tornadoes within the line tomorrow morning. Any supercells before that will be nasty! 9Z SREF has a 75% bullseye in the moderate risk area for the Significant tornado ingredients parameter and about 30% for Louisville. 15% for us. That was from this morning though. 15Z run later this afternoon will be interesting to see if that changes or not.
Re: December 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Fri Dec 10, 2021 12:16 pm
Agreed... the I-65 corridor is very concerning. It is close for us down here in the SW area of the Tri-state, there is no doubt. If this system were to speed up a tad more that's really all it would take even for CVG. Lots to watch with this system of course.Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Dec 10, 2021 12:08 pmIt's close for cvgland. The corridor from Louisville to Indy are really under the guntron777 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 10, 2021 11:58 amI'm not sure on the supercell part yet for us, but the squall line with the front just on its own, should have embedded QLCS tornadoes within the line tomorrow morning. Any supercells before that will be nasty! 9Z SREF has a 75% bullseye in the moderate risk area for the Significant tornado ingredients parameter and about 30% for Louisville. 15% for us. That was from this morning though. 15Z run later this afternoon will be interesting to see if that changes or not.
Re: December 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Fri Dec 10, 2021 12:30 pm
70 degree dews are already up to the MO / AR boarder with 60 degree dews as Mike mentioned as close as Paducah. LOU is around 55. This is crazy!
Re: December 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Fri Dec 10, 2021 1:01 pm
16Z HRRR is showing scattered cells in the Metro as early as 10pm tonight. They get more widespread as the night goes on too. 60 degree dew points get up to the OH / MI boarder holy crap!
Re: December 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Fri Dec 10, 2021 1:14 pm
I'm sure it's happened before - but anyone know the last time we had 60+ dewpoints at night this late in the year?
Re: December 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Fri Dec 10, 2021 1:26 pm
Winds are cranking down in north Texas - seeing pretty widespread 55-65 mph gusts in the Lubbock area over towards Wichita Falls.
Re: December 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Fri Dec 10, 2021 1:37 pm
I’ve missed you guys! Hope all are well!
Just want to say thank you for all you do here every day!
Days like this I am even more grateful! Getting the word out to neighbors and friends who don’t pay much attention to weather.
Just want to say thank you for all you do here every day!
Days like this I am even more grateful! Getting the word out to neighbors and friends who don’t pay much attention to weather.
Re: December 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Fri Dec 10, 2021 1:51 pm
Re: December 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Fri Dec 10, 2021 2:25 pm
HRRR seems to really like the I-71 corridor.
Re: December 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Fri Dec 10, 2021 2:27 pm
Re: December 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Fri Dec 10, 2021 2:29 pm
15Z SREF for tornado significant ingredients now has a small 90% area in the Mod risk zone. 75% into S. ILL, 60% West KY and 45% SW IN. 30% LOU and still holding at 15% for us.
Re: December 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Fri Dec 10, 2021 2:30 pm
MD issued in the Mod risk area: TOR watch likely to be issued shortly.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1978.html
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1978.html
Re: December 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Fri Dec 10, 2021 2:42 pm
Uhhh OK,.... for next week GFS painting 40-50 degree temp anomalies in the center of the country . Round two lurks
Re: December 2021 Weather Discussion
Posted: Fri Dec 10, 2021 2:47 pm