Absolute Vorticity

66 here this morning. No changes to the ongoing forecast needed. We've got it covered nicely. Waiting on the rain to come in later this afternoon. Tonight into tomorrow looks to be when the heaviest action falls.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 28, 2021 6:36 am 66 here this morning. No changes to the ongoing forecast needed. We've got it covered nicely. Waiting on the rain to come in later this afternoon. Tonight into tomorrow looks to be when the heaviest action falls.

Good Morning Les. Forecast looks great and 1-2 inches seems correct for most folks though training of storms could give some folks a little more but that is more of a nowcast. Flooding issues are low as the ground is rather dry and plenty of foliage around this time of year. Of course if you get a thunderstorm that dumps a heavy amount in a short period streets can become flooded but its a temporary type of deal. Next week looks busy as well with another front nearby and that is good news in terms of rainfall. Getting dry down here in SC which is a change compared to the last two years as it seemed to rain all the time. Will be heading up Saturday for a couple of weeks then heading back to Hilton Head for a small vacation and then back home where I should be most of the summer because I want to be around the Cicadas lol. Btw a warm rainfall is one way they start to burrow out of the ground so in the next week or so we will start to see the start which will be slow at first but before you know it cicadas everywhere lol.

StormTalk! https://www.wave3.com/2021/04/28/goode- ... ther-blog/

Meso update at 9:30 am shows PW values near 1.7" down in the Memphis, TN area. Currently about 1.1" in CVG land and will rise during the afternoon. Seeing some light showers drift across western Indiana into Illinois with thunderstorms approaching St Louis. The heavier rains are now back in SW Missouri and NW Arkansas.

Had a couple of sun breaks earlier. Temp into the lower 70s down here. CAPE building to our North and West which is expected. The action will develop north and west of us before coming in here later this afternoon and tonight. Another round with the LLJ is expected tonight into tomorrow.

76 here with a dew of 62... I'm ready to receive!

We have some weak CAPE now but bulk shear is light. Better shear is closer to the front and well north of us at this time so that is a limiting factor for storms attm. More of a heavy rain issue for us as most have stated on here. Isolated strong wind gust possible and that ought to do it.

It'll be a few hours yet before anything occurs here. Rain is building over ILL and some storms too over Middle TN scattering into SKY. Moving NE.

2:00 pm update - latest visible showing some breaks in the clouds moving into CVG land. Also a cluster of storms moving up the Ohio River southwest of Louisville.

77 / 64 at CVG as of 2pm.

HRRR shows storm action around 5pm. Matches up with the current radar trends.

Currently 73 with a DP of 59 here in Greenville.

Couple of storms have popped here in the Dayton area. Locally heavy downpours.

79 / 64 at CVG, we've reached our convective temp. We are fair game at anytime, we chances increasing as the afternoon wears on. Agree with likely action this evening.

Those pop up storms can produce some heavy over a limited time. Main area of rain should get into the area between 4-5pm. Should have a break but the LLJ which picks up more the later we get into spring will kick in and heaviest rains should fall overnight into early Thursday. More rain Thursday as the front comes through and most folks will be out of the rain by 9pm on Thursday. Friday will be a cooler day with sun and clouds but not to bad with temps probably in the 64-68 degree range. Saturday looks great with an early morning low probably in the upper 30's but temps will rebound to near 70 by afternoon.

Also seeing some pop ups in the Columbus area.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Apr 28, 2021 3:10 pm Those pop up storms can produce some heavy over a limited time. Main area of rain should get into the area between 4-5pm. Should have a break but the LLJ which picks up more the later we get into spring will kick in and heaviest rains should fall overnight into early Thursday. More rain Thursday as the front comes through and most folks will be out of the rain by 9pm on Thursday. Friday will be a cooler day with sun and clouds but not to bad with temps probably in the 64-68 degree range. Saturday looks great with an early morning low probably in the upper 30's but temps will rebound to near 70 by afternoon.

Hey Tim, I'm going to Louisville this weekend with friends to watch the derby on TV, we're not going to the actual derby, but we'll be hanging outside on their deck with sunny mid 70's (perfect weather this year).

Up to 83 here in Deer Park thanks to the breaks in the clouds over the last few hours.

winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Wed Apr 28, 2021 3:17 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Apr 28, 2021 3:10 pm Those pop up storms can produce some heavy over a limited time. Main area of rain should get into the area between 4-5pm. Should have a break but the LLJ which picks up more the later we get into spring will kick in and heaviest rains should fall overnight into early Thursday. More rain Thursday as the front comes through and most folks will be out of the rain by 9pm on Thursday. Friday will be a cooler day with sun and clouds but not to bad with temps probably in the 64-68 degree range. Saturday looks great with an early morning low probably in the upper 30's but temps will rebound to near 70 by afternoon.

Hey Tim, I'm going to Louisville this weekend with friends to watch the derby on TV, we're not going to the actual derby, but we'll be hanging outside on their deck with sunny mid 70's (perfect weather this year).

Hey Joe, I am very jealous. Sounds like a great time and I will just be getting into town on Saturday. Enjoy my friend and try to stay out of trouble.

I'll be getting off of work shortly to watch the action roll in!

I hit 82 earlier. Currently sitting at 80 with a dew of 65. We're ready for t-storms and / or heavy rainfall.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 28, 2021 4:40 pm I hit 82 earlier. Currently sitting at 80 with a dew of 65. We're ready for t-storms and / or heavy rainfall.

Les Louisville already hit hard with 1-2 inches near the city. This system is wide open to moisture and finally a system that will meet or exceed precip totals by the models.

Lightning activity continues to increase. Should be some nice boomers moving in soon.

Radar as of 4:55.

79 with rain starting up now. Thunder also!

I just saw a tweet that said Bowman Field in Louisville recently recorded 1.15 inches of rain in only 9 minutes. Now that is a downpour!