Absolute Vorticity

Good morning all! A nice day in store with the low 80s expected ahead of our rain maker. We will see increasing clouds this afternoon. Any rain today should hold off until after dark IMO. I also believe it will be scattered. If we don't see much rain tomorrow morning then we should get some CAPE for a nice line of storms between 4-8pm Wed. That should be when we see our heaviest rainfall out of this storm system. We will also see lingering action now on Thursday as well as this system will take its time leaving the area. I still like a half inch for a lot of locations but an inch plus most certainly is in the cards if that line materializes and hammers us Wed afternoon. That will be key if you want to see those heavier numbers some models are spiting out. After we get past this system, decreasing clouds on Fri and a nice weekend is in store. A good chunk of next week is also dry under a big ridge of high pressure with a trough over the West. Highs in the 70s will warm again into the lower 80s for next week.

Good Morning and another nice day though we are starting to see dew points rise a tad but still not bad. Les I like your forecast and the only thing I will add is overnight Wed into Thurs Morning we may see the LLJ strengthen and we could see a line of storms move through the local area. Timing once again is always key and though I expect most totals in the .5-1inch range sometime you are unlucky and miss with this set up and also you may get lucky and get hit harder a couple of times. Going to be like a winter storm and you can go 2-5 inches but sometimes someone gets under 2 inches and someone may get 6 inches. To many variables with systems and we try to narrow it down but at the end of the day Mother Nature decides that and I don't have her direct line.

Good post Tim! I am in agreement that amounts will vary across the region. If you don't get that line Wed afternoon and evening then you'll probably be in that 0.25 to 0.50" range by the time all is said and done late Thursday. If you do then 0.50 to 1" is good and if you get hit by two rounds of storms than an inch plus will occur. I guess this is the best way that we can put it Tim to our forum readers. Just a tough set up and when you're in a drought, I think it is good to go a little below model guidance for precip amounts which I have been doing all along anyway.

12Z NAM has around 0.30" for CVG and 0.50" for I-70 Crew. 12Z HRRR has 0.25 to 0.50" S of the River and up to 1" North of the River. A very tight rainfall gradient.

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1053 AM EDT Tue Sep 26 2023

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ060-061-070>072-077>081-
271500-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-
Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-
Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Preble-Montgomery-Butler-
Warren-Clinton-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-Highland-Adams-
1053 AM EDT Tue Sep 26 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana,
Southeast Indiana, Northeast Kentucky, Northern Kentucky, South
Central Ohio, Southwest Ohio and West Central Ohio.

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Thunderstorms are expected Wednesday afternoon and evening. Some
storms may produce large hail and damaging winds.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

$$

12Z GFS has around 0.80" SE of I-71 and 0.50 to maybe 0.75" in spots NW of I-71. Around an inch for CMH. The 1.5" big winner amounts are down in Central Ky.

If the 12Z GFS is right, after we are done with this week's rainfall, then we are dry until perhaps around the 9th when a weakening cold front tries to bring in a few showers to the region. No sign of fall for the 1st 10 days of the month at least in my opinion. I like more around mid month for that possibility.

Good Afternoon and getting a little toasty outside but dew point is still below 60. I see models are doing their normal dancing on rain totals and one reason we always have a range. The gfs has always had the higher totals in central Kentucky since yesterday afternoon and still going that way. Looks like the CMC has backed off and has the heaviest totals to the east and have not seen the Euro. Timing once again will play a big part of how much a certain location gets and we know there could be areas that get missed altogether with this kind of setup.

Seeing some nice showers and thundershowers building up over northern and western Indiana.

The 12Z Euro has an inch for CVG but that is because half of it falls late today into tonight then again of course tomorrow afternoon and evening, Less then a tenth of an inch on Thurs.

Just like what we do with winter events, we are pretty much getting into the nowcast mode now with this incoming system. As Tim eluded too, radar shows bands of showers and t-storms to our West slowly moving NE on the SE side of the upper low. We'll have to just wait and see if anyone can cash in later on today. Those will die down after sunset and pop up again for us tomorrow afternoon and evening. Then we will be on the backside Thursday with the heaviest rains for Central KY and lighter activity for us. This is my current thinking which matches up with the guidance very well. It's all up to Mother Nature now.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 26, 2023 3:41 pm Just like what we do with winter events, we are pretty much getting into the nowcast mode now with this incoming system. As Tim eluded too, radar shows bands of showers and t-storms to our West slowly moving NE on the SE side of the upper low. We'll have to just wait and see if anyone can cash in later on today. Those will die down after sunset and pop up again for us tomorrow afternoon and evening. Then we will be on the backside Thursday with the heaviest rains for Central KY and lighter activity for us. This is my current thinking which matches up with the guidance very well. It's all up to Mother Nature now.

Great Post Les and just wanted to add that the LLJ looks to pick up both overnight and Wednesday night. When that happens we can keep the storms going longer than normal. Even though they may start to die after dark the jet can come along and boost up the boundary left over. I still going with 4 different possible rain events with the first later tonight and overnight. Next will be Wednesday afternoon followed by another Wednesday night into Thursday morning and then finally some left over showers Thursday afternoon. Not everyone will get each event but hopefully most will get in on 2 of the first 3 events. Still going .5-1inch but again that is what I considered the most likely outcome but we will have winners who get over 1 inch and losers who stay under .5. The mid-day models especially the gfs and euro really picked up on the showers and thundershowers to the west and northwest and even some weaker tornado's are possible in parts of Illinois this afternoon. This tells me maybe a little more energy than models showed but something we have been talking about since last week.

Agreed Tim. We do have that marginal risk for tomorrow afternoon as well. Isolated hail and strong winds are the main hazards along with some heavy rain (we hope)!

Something strange on the radar. Not sure if its a picasso or the blob but its slowly getting into the local area. So far seems to be holding up but we are losing daylight.

Good evening all... 82 here today, CVG also reached 82. A nice little batch of showers and maybe even a rumble of thunder pushing into the Metro now. This should get the atmosphere primed moisture wise regardless of how much we actually receive this evening. Then, we shall see if we get rain in the morning, or if we can warm up for some stronger storms and heavier rains tomorrow afternoon. Then as Tim mentioned one more round overnight Wed into early Thurs before things become more scattered as the system begins to sink further to the south. Heaviest rains on Thurs should be over Central KY. Well guys... we've made our calls and now it's time to sit back and relax and enjoy the incoming rain. It'll be nice going to bed here shortly with some rain falling. It's been soooo long!

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 26, 2023 7:29 pm Good evening all... 82 here today, CVG also reached 82. A nice little batch of showers and maybe even a rumble of thunder pushing into the Metro now. This should get the atmosphere primed moisture wise regardless of how much we actually receive this evening. Then, we shall see if we get rain in the morning, or if we can warm up for some stronger storms and heavier rains tomorrow afternoon. Then as Tim mentioned one more round overnight Wed into early Thurs before things become more scattered as the system begins to sink further to the south. Heaviest rains on Thurs should be over Central KY. Well guys... we've made our calls and now it's time to sit back and relax and enjoy the incoming rain. It'll be nice going to bed here shortly with some rain falling. It's been soooo long!

I agree Les and had to shut the windows for the first time in a few weeks. Nothing hardly beats hearing rain falling on the roof except maybe a nice thunderstorm while you sit on the patio or a snowstorm lol.

No doubt Tim! Love the sound of rain falling and you're right, A snow storm beats rain in my book every time!

I expect a big stretch of 80s due to the strong ridge that will be developing behind this system. 70s of course due to clouds and rain tomorrow and Thurs. Decreasing clouds Fri so still expecting the 70s. However after that, I expect the lower 80s from Saturday thru probably all of next week. Lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s and we're back to boring weather for a while. Sure hope everyone can get a nice soaking because the ground will dry out once again rather quickly.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 26, 2023 7:35 pm No doubt Tim! Love the sound of rain falling and you're right, A snow storm beats rain in my book every time!

I expect a big stretch of 80s due to the strong ridge that will be developing behind this system. 70s of course due to clouds and rain tomorrow and Thurs. Decreasing clouds Fri so still expecting the 70s. However after that, I expect the lower 80s from Saturday thru probably all of next week. Lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s and we're back to boring weather for a while. Sure hope everyone can get a nice soaking because the ground will dry out once again rather quickly.

Does look like a strong ridge developing once again. No doubt some 80's coming back but how high will be somewhat determined by how much rain we can get in the next 48 hours. Even my lawn has turned somewhat crispy in certain sections but at least the mower is getting a break. More dead leaves of course off the trees so that makes 4 bags so far. I want to have a nice fire in the fire pit but its too warm and love to have one when we are in the 40's and 50's.

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Sep 26, 2023 7:38 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 26, 2023 7:35 pm No doubt Tim! Love the sound of rain falling and you're right, A snow storm beats rain in my book every time!

I expect a big stretch of 80s due to the strong ridge that will be developing behind this system. 70s of course due to clouds and rain tomorrow and Thurs. Decreasing clouds Fri so still expecting the 70s. However after that, I expect the lower 80s from Saturday thru probably all of next week. Lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s and we're back to boring weather for a while. Sure hope everyone can get a nice soaking because the ground will dry out once again rather quickly.

Does look like a strong ridge developing once again. No doubt some 80's coming back but how high will be somewhat determined by how much rain we can get in the next 48 hours. Even my lawn has turned somewhat crispy in certain sections but at least the mower is getting a break. More dead leaves of course off the trees so that makes 4 bags so far. I want to have a nice fire in the fire pit but its too warm and love to have one when we are in the 40's and 50's.

I don't mow until it rains in drought situations. I go 2 sometimes 3 weeks in between mowing's. I will mow again in a few days now that we're seeing some rain. Will be mulching some of those leaves also. Love the look of the current radar just to our SW Tim. If it holds together, we may get a quick 0.25" with it.

Les the NWS even put out a weather statement for folks just to the west and southwest about a strong storm. Been awhile since I saw that posted. I mowed when I got lucky with that 1/3 of an inch and it shaped everything up but nothing since that date.

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Sep 26, 2023 7:44 pm Les the NWS even put out a weather statement for folks just to the west and southwest about a strong storm. Been awhile since I saw that posted. I mowed when I got lucky with that 1/3 of an inch and it shaped everything up but nothing since that date.

Switzerland IN-Ohio IN-Carroll KY-Gallatin KY-
727 PM EDT Tue Sep 26 2023

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF OHIO...
SWITZERLAND...EASTERN CARROLL...SOUTHERN BOONE AND GALLATIN COUNTIES
THROUGH 815 PM EDT...

At 726 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Vevay, moving
east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph, pea size hail, and frequent
cloud-to-ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Hail may cause minor damage to
vegetation. Lightning can cause serious injury or death.

Light rain is knocking on my door and should start up about anytime now. Tim, we only got a tenth of an inch out of that last event so I didn't mow. Good thing too. It's crunchy out there but this rainfall event should bring it back around.

Thunder and lightning but no rain yet.

CVG reached 82, DAY 79 and CMH 73 on Tues.

Good Morning and got 0.42 of rain so that is a good start. Once again some folks got very little and really the models never quite knew where to put the heaviest rainfall and most had it near I-70 but that has not been the case. The short term models may be worse. So why the problems with the models this time and really its a pattern we don't see often this time of year. More of a late spring/early summer pattern in some ways and that is the moisture looking for a heat source and the main area has been south of what models could figure out.

The LLJ which is something we see quite often in late spring/early summer is around though not quite the strength you see during that time period. The main area of heavier rain has been to the west in southern Illinois but some has made it eastward. More storms should fire today as we have moisten up the atmosphere. Expect the LLJ to have another try overnight and that could be the heaviest rain we see out of this system but how far north will it expand is a key question.

Very misty out this morning and some fog around. I expect the fog to be more of a factor Friday Morning as we get a quick shot of cooler air and with the rainfall this should lead to some dense fog and may hold temps down a degree or two on Friday.

After that another ridge will form and one reason is the Atlantic has been very busy and one reason is the waters are still very warm. This is usually not the case during an El Nino and I am still looking at that for the winter season and I wonder if this El Nino has already peaked. Maybe/maybe not but something I will look at over the next month. Reason I mentioned that is we went from a La Nina to El Nino very quickly this year and sometimes the amount of energy it took for that to happen can sort of die out quickly.

El Nino's have certain patterns that set up but sometimes other factors can alter the El Nino.