Absolute Vorticity

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Oct 21, 2023 4:12 pm

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Sat Oct 21, 2023 4:09 pm Thankfully the last residual showers weren't too bad for the crew and prayerfully next Thurs's drought monitor update will at least show some if not minor improvement.

It may stay the same since soaking rainfall may not occur again for another 9 days per the latest guidance.

Went down to the creek, the rains changed nothing, just pockets of crystal clear water pools . All Those huge fields upstream soaked up everything and it’ll take a lot more to get things running

CVG reached 69, CMH 61 and DAY 60 today.

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Sat Oct 21, 2023 6:15 pm CVG reached 67, CMH 61 and DAY 58 today.

CVG was at 69 as of 5pm, that high will be amended.

Good morning all! Frost and freeze advisories are out for the region tonight. Otherwise, thanks to Hurricane Tammy in the Atlantic, the cold front for next week as well as the cold air to follow gets delayed. 60s still for Monday but now, the 70s appear to be likely for 3 if not 4 days. Tues - Thurs is a lock with Fri being more questionable. The first front still tries to move in on Fri and it still weakens and falls apart. Rain chances look limited. The next front tries to get in here Sunday but looks to hang up just to our NW to potentially delay the rain until Monday, Halloween or even until 11/1 depending on which model solutions works out. Cold air will follow after that. So that is our challenge. The timing of the best rain chances not for next week but the week after since Halloween could be impacted. If the front waits until Wed then Halloween will be fine. We shall see!

12Z GFS is showing a washout for Halloween again. Ugh... hope this is wrong.

12Z Euro is a bit faster and has the rain ending Halloween afternoon so that it is dry for trick-or-treat time.

Good Afternoon and a nice fall day. I missed the weekend forecast and thought we would see some showers on Saturday and that was to the northeast and today was mainly sunny and missed that forecast. Yesterday was a day if you saw in the winter of a nice clipper with temps 20 plus degrees on either side. Les I agree things have slowed down and that will give us 1 or maybe 2 more 70's than we thought earlier. What this does though is give me more chances of rain in Wisconsin when I am up there before it finally gets cold. Just hoping to get snow flakes flying before I leave because after a brief cold spell in early November we may be in for a few weeks of mild weather. Back later with more info

CVG reached 58, DAY 57 and CMH 56 today.

34 here this morning. I'll have to wait and see once it gets light what the frost looks like. I assume at this temp there should be some on the ground.

Dropped to 32 here with frost

Good Morning and got down to 36 but no frost. A great week to get outside work done with temps in the 70's for the most part.First chance of rain looks late Thursday at the earliest but most likely next weekend. What I find wild is the number of tropical systems several hundred miles off the east coast. Seems to be in the same place about every other week. Of course they get weaker and weaker but they do throw up a stop sign for systems coming from the west. The cold shot still looks to come next week but will this be more of a glancing blow. The longer it takes to get here the more likely it will be a glancing blow as milder air should surge in rather quickly. Still will probably see a few days in the 40's for highs but I believe temps should rebound rather quickly. Hopefully other the next 10 days we get some beneficial rains but hopefully not Halloween night.

The cold building where it should this time of year in Northern and western Canada and also will start to see some colder temps in Alaska. No doubt snowfall in the northern regions of the world have been slow to gather this October.

Had some patchy frost on the grass here, not a whole lot. Was mainly on roof tops and car tops where it was much heavier in nature on elevated surfaces. A beautiful week weather wise with well above normal temps. The 70s begin tomorrow and could last thru at least Saturday, maybe even Sunday. Rain chances continue to look light towards the end of the week / weekend while we await a stronger front and push of colder air as we approach Halloween and get into early November. We are watching the models to resolve some timing issues with all of this as the week goes on.

38 officially at CVG this morning. 34 here so definitely the coolest morning for my hood to date.

At the freezing mark here in G'ville and progged for around 63.

Temp dropped to 34 in the past few minutes. Like Les mentioned no frost except on the rooftops

Hit 33 with scattered ground frost

Great Pics Bgoney. Another item I noticed are the trees that have changed colors. The leaves look like the ones I had in September that just died because of little rainfall. My leaves over the past 10-14 days though looked healthy when they fall and are not the crisp ones you get early in the season.

Up now to 37 here.

We are really getting close to leaf color peaking now in my neighborhood. A handful of trees are just starting to turn but the vast majority now have. Oaks are always the last as can be expected. The maples look absolutely stunning with a lot of reds, yellows, and oranges.

A tough forecast coming up with several fronts trying to knock down the ridge, plus the slow movement of the pattern thanks to Tammy out in the Atlantic. My current guess is that these fronts will have better rains to our NW since they will be weakening as they try and push into AV Land. Eventually though the cold will win out near Halloween or just shortly thereafter. I truly hope we can time the rains for the trick-or-treaters but for now, I'd plan on it being chilly and rainy at least for some portion of our coverage area.

12Z GFS has some good rains on Monday of next week ending Midday on Halloween so it is chilly but dry for the kiddos. Hope to see the timing work out rainfall wise. It'll be chilly either way but chilly and dry is much better then having it chilly and wet.

"Who's that 'knocking' on my wall?"

A crew is putting new siding on our house today.

Currently 64 here in G'ville.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 23, 2023 1:32 pm 12Z GFS has some good rains on Monday of next week ending Midday on Halloween so it is chilly but dry for the kiddos. Hope to see the timing work out rainfall wise. It'll be chilly either way but chilly and dry is much better then having it chilly and wet.

12Z Euro agrees with the GFS so that is a nice trend to see. Hopefully this will hold. I cannot rule out some light rain towards the end of this week. I think we see a period of mod rain over the weekend with the heaviest action on Monday ending on Halloween with the passage of the front then dry and chilly for the kiddies.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 23, 2023 2:58 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 23, 2023 1:32 pm 12Z GFS has some good rains on Monday of next week ending Midday on Halloween so it is chilly but dry for the kiddos. Hope to see the timing work out rainfall wise. It'll be chilly either way but chilly and dry is much better then having it chilly and wet.

12Z Euro agrees with the GFS so that is a nice trend to see. Hopefully this will hold. I cannot rule out some light rain towards the end of this week. I think we see a period of mod rain over the weekend with the heaviest action on Monday ending on Halloween with the passage of the front then dry and chilly for the kiddies.

A set-up the mid section of the country hasn’t seen for quite sometime, finally a SE ridge to help with moisture and a nice temp gradient to boot . Not sure how far east the soaking rains can get into our area, but at least a good change for many

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Oct 23, 2023 4:56 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 23, 2023 2:58 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 23, 2023 1:32 pm 12Z GFS has some good rains on Monday of next week ending Midday on Halloween so it is chilly but dry for the kiddos. Hope to see the timing work out rainfall wise. It'll be chilly either way but chilly and dry is much better then having it chilly and wet.

12Z Euro agrees with the GFS so that is a nice trend to see. Hopefully this will hold. I cannot rule out some light rain towards the end of this week. I think we see a period of mod rain over the weekend with the heaviest action on Monday ending on Halloween with the passage of the front then dry and chilly for the kiddies.

A set-up the mid section of the country hasn’t seen for quite sometime, finally a SE ridge to help with moisture and a nice temp gradient to boot . Not sure how far east the soaking rains can get into our area, but at least a good change for many

Nice to see the S Plains get in on some of the action too. We need areas to our SW to moisten up so we can get better Gulf moisture up here ourselves.

Good Evening and not much to add as beautiful for much of the week. Even next weekend no a wash out by any means. Still best shot of steadier rains early next week. Heading for Wisconsin on Thursday but before hand a nice dose of rainfall for that area. Will I see snow and still up in the air but at least by the weekend and early next week will see highs in the 30's and my guess lows could be in the teens if the wind dies down and a clear sky. Will be a shock to the system but I am ready for some cold air.