Absolute Vorticity

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 25, 2023 10:33 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Jan 25, 2023 9:57 am The one reason this storm was not a much more impactful storm is lack of arctic air. Even where its snowing temps are near 32. Next week arctic air is heading south and east but the southeast ridge over Florida is going to make it a nice fight between heat miser and snow miser. This also gives the coastal Northeast a better shot of winter weather as for the most part they have been spared in the bigger cities. What does this mean for us and probably more forecasting headaches lol

Great post! For some examples, my Mom's Sister who lives NW of STL in St. Charles, MO was supposed to get hammered! Not the case. They only got 2-3". I also have relatives in Somerset, MI which is in the NE corner of Hillsdale Co in the southern part of the state. They were also supposed to be in the jackpot zone. Granted, the storm for them just started around 6 or 7am this morning, and so far, they only have a couple of inches or so on the ground. Ground temps are warm and no arctic air as you said, Tim. The only way these storms can work out is to have 1"+ per hour snowfall rates. Then the snow will stick and pile up faster then it can melt. Otherwise, the snowfall forecast is going to underperform almost every time. Something to think about with future systems when we have no cold air to work with. That is why Sunday worked out as well as it did. We had 1"+ per hour snowfall rates for several hours and boom! 3-6" fell in the areas that kept getting the heavier bands.

Wxlrnr wrote: ↑Wed Jan 25, 2023 11:47 am A side note to Tim. You were asking about the impact of tornadoes on barometric pressure. I was watching Fox weather and they were interviewing a storm chaser who had a tornado pass just in front of him on the road. He has weather instruments on the roof of his suv, he recorded a sharp drop in dew point and pressure as the tornado passed. So tornadoes may affect barometric pressure.

dce wrote: ↑Wed Jan 25, 2023 9:07 am In Piqua at the moment headed to Wapakoneta. Sleet In Piqua. I would expect to get back into the snow by the time I get to Wapa.

House of Cards wrote: ↑Wed Jan 25, 2023 11:51 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 25, 2023 10:33 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Jan 25, 2023 9:57 am The one reason this storm was not a much more impactful storm is lack of arctic air. Even where its snowing temps are near 32. Next week arctic air is heading south and east but the southeast ridge over Florida is going to make it a nice fight between heat miser and snow miser. This also gives the coastal Northeast a better shot of winter weather as for the most part they have been spared in the bigger cities. What does this mean for us and probably more forecasting headaches lol

Great post! For some examples, my Mom's Sister who lives NW of STL in St. Charles, MO was supposed to get hammered! Not the case. They only got 2-3". I also have relatives in Somerset, MI which is in the NE corner of Hillsdale Co in the southern part of the state. They were also supposed to be in the jackpot zone. Granted, the storm for them just started around 6 or 7am this morning, and so far, they only have a couple of inches or so on the ground. Ground temps are warm and no arctic air as you said, Tim. The only way these storms can work out is to have 1"+ per hour snowfall rates. Then the snow will stick and pile up faster then it can melt. Otherwise, the snowfall forecast is going to underperform almost every time. Something to think about with future systems when we have no cold air to work with. That is why Sunday worked out as well as it did. We had 1"+ per hour snowfall rates for several hours and boom! 3-6" fell in the areas that kept getting the heavier bands.

and wouldn't it also seem that most times for the snowfall rates to be that high the Low needs to be stronger, and if the Low is stronger, it pulls in more warm air?

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Wed Jan 25, 2023 12:09 pm

dce wrote: ↑Wed Jan 25, 2023 9:07 am In Piqua at the moment headed to Wapakoneta. Sleet In Piqua. I would expect to get back into the snow by the time I get to Wapa.

Hey Doug,

Safe travel runs bro!

I went once to the Neil Armstrong Museum there in Wapa during my youth group years.

I'm still debating whether or not to go out and do a measurement.

Ryan wrote: ↑Wed Jan 25, 2023 12:41 pm Interesting graphic from ILN below (pulled from their twitter). Looks like they really expected the low track to be southwest of metro??

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 25, 2023 12:50 pm

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Wed Jan 25, 2023 12:09 pm

dce wrote: ↑Wed Jan 25, 2023 9:07 am In Piqua at the moment headed to Wapakoneta. Sleet In Piqua. I would expect to get back into the snow by the time I get to Wapa.

Hey Doug,

Safe travel runs bro!

I went once to the Neil Armstrong Museum there in Wapa during my youth group years.

I'm still debating whether or not to go out and do a measurement.

Man up! Or at least snap a pic for us, Bro. Been wondering how much you had up there.

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 25, 2023 1:15 pm it started snowing finally right around noon and quite heavy also, i have an inch down easy already

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 25, 2023 12:49 pm

House of Cards wrote: ↑Wed Jan 25, 2023 11:51 am and wouldn't it also seem that most times for the snowfall rates to be that high the Low needs to be stronger, and if the Low is stronger, it pulls in more warm air?

Great post Dave. Absolutely correct. We live in an area where everything has to go right for a big dog. I mean 6-12"+, something really, really nice! That is why we don't see that occur very often.

House of Cards wrote: ↑Wed Jan 25, 2023 1:44 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 25, 2023 12:49 pm

House of Cards wrote: ↑Wed Jan 25, 2023 11:51 am and wouldn't it also seem that most times for the snowfall rates to be that high the Low needs to be stronger, and if the Low is stronger, it pulls in more warm air?

Great post Dave. Absolutely correct. We live in an area where everything has to go right for a big dog. I mean 6-12"+, something really, really nice! That is why we don't see that occur very often.

I try to explain to folks that you have to picture a flow chart with 100 levers; if just one of those levers isn't tripped or isn't tripped all the way, or maybe is tripped too far, what comes out isn't what was expected. All those levers being things like temps at different levels, low track, moisture and when moisture comes into it, winds and wind directions, etc.
Honestly, in my recollection, over the years the snows where we've done the best have always seemed to be ones where we really weren't expecting them to be that big a deal. I remember one a few years back where you first explained (at least that I recall) Deformation Bands, and watching Gummer on TV showing cars sliding down the pike in Mt Washington. Or Sunday. Or (apart from Rich A) the famous pre-Christmas storm. The storm in '95 where first they said an inch or so, then 2 or so, then boom, all day on a Saturday. I think part of why we get caught with our pants down is precisley because all the levers have to be just right and usually they aren't.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 25, 2023 1:55 pm

House of Cards wrote: ↑Wed Jan 25, 2023 1:44 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 25, 2023 12:49 pm

House of Cards wrote: ↑Wed Jan 25, 2023 11:51 am and wouldn't it also seem that most times for the snowfall rates to be that high the Low needs to be stronger, and if the Low is stronger, it pulls in more warm air?

Great post Dave. Absolutely correct. We live in an area where everything has to go right for a big dog. I mean 6-12"+, something really, really nice! That is why we don't see that occur very often.

I try to explain to folks that you have to picture a flow chart with 100 levers; if just one of those levers isn't tripped or isn't tripped all the way, or maybe is tripped too far, what comes out isn't what was expected. All those levers being things like temps at different levels, low track, moisture and when moisture comes into it, winds and wind directions, etc.
Honestly, in my recollection, over the years the snows where we've done the best have always seemed to be ones where we really weren't expecting them to be that big a deal. I remember one a few years back where you first explained (at least that I recall) Deformation Bands, and watching Gummer on TV showing cars sliding down the pike in Mt Washington. Or Sunday. Or (apart from Rich A) the famous pre-Christmas storm. The storm in '95 where first they said an inch or so, then 2 or so, then boom, all day on a Saturday. I think part of why we get caught with our pants down is precisley because all the levers have to be just right and usually they aren't.

Great post Dave! It is rare to have a March 2008 system where I knew 10 days out we were going to get whacked by that one. Usually what you posted is normally how it goes. I also believe that we tend to do better with weak lows and overrunning situations too. Another way we have scored are with upper lows that close off like Oct 89, 93... Jan 96... Feb 98 are some prime examples of that.

House of Cards wrote: ↑Wed Jan 25, 2023 2:06 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 25, 2023 1:55 pm

House of Cards wrote: ↑Wed Jan 25, 2023 1:44 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 25, 2023 12:49 pm

House of Cards wrote: ↑Wed Jan 25, 2023 11:51 am and wouldn't it also seem that most times for the snowfall rates to be that high the Low needs to be stronger, and if the Low is stronger, it pulls in more warm air?

Great post Dave. Absolutely correct. We live in an area where everything has to go right for a big dog. I mean 6-12"+, something really, really nice! That is why we don't see that occur very often.

I try to explain to folks that you have to picture a flow chart with 100 levers; if just one of those levers isn't tripped or isn't tripped all the way, or maybe is tripped too far, what comes out isn't what was expected. All those levers being things like temps at different levels, low track, moisture and when moisture comes into it, winds and wind directions, etc.
Honestly, in my recollection, over the years the snows where we've done the best have always seemed to be ones where we really weren't expecting them to be that big a deal. I remember one a few years back where you first explained (at least that I recall) Deformation Bands, and watching Gummer on TV showing cars sliding down the pike in Mt Washington. Or Sunday. Or (apart from Rich A) the famous pre-Christmas storm. The storm in '95 where first they said an inch or so, then 2 or so, then boom, all day on a Saturday. I think part of why we get caught with our pants down is precisley because all the levers have to be just right and usually they aren't.

Great post Dave! It is rare to have a March 2008 system where I knew 10 days out we were going to get whacked by that one. Usually what you posted is normally how it goes. I also believe that we tend to do better with weak lows and overrunning situations too. Another way we have scored are with upper lows that close off like Oct 89, 93... Jan 96... Feb 98 are some prime examples of that.

thanks! And in all honesty, I've also noticed that after many of these, (and also honestly after Sever or tornadic storms as well when we're in a pattern of them recurring) it almost always seems that the local media and weather folks do exactly what they did with this second storm and go way overboard. Human nature I suppose.

MJSun wrote: ↑Wed Jan 25, 2023 3:15 pm Screenshot_20230125-151502.png