Absolute Vorticity

First, Good Sunday morning Les……second….well well what do my eyes see. The first snow in Mason, light but still the first flakes. Guess it’s time to put away the shorts and flip flops or pack the car and head to our home on Hilton Head

My cousin in S Mich got a nice dusting too this morning. Looked similar to the pics that JP posted. Raining here with a few flakes mixing in. Doesn't look good for the contest. 37 imby.

Ddmeyer004 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 14, 2021 9:52 am First, Good Sunday morning Les……second….well well what do my eyes see. The first snow in Mason, light but still the first flakes. Guess it’s time to put away the shorts and flip flops or pack the car and head to our home on Hilton Head

Good morning Dave! Glad to see you posting my friend. Hope to see more of your posts not only this winter but throughout the year! Hope your BBQ business and competitions are going well also. Temps are marginal down here... when the precip rate is light it's rain and then when the precip rate picks up, I see snow lol

Ddmeyer004 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 14, 2021 9:52 am First, Good Sunday morning Les……second….well well what do my eyes see. The first snow in Mason, light but still the first flakes. Guess it’s time to put away the shorts and flip flops or pack the car and head to our home on Hilton Head

Can I join ya?

Hilton Head is my happy place.

Getting some nice fat flakes mix in with rain here in Williamsburg.

The overnight GFS had a nice clipper system for us the day before Thanksgiving. Too early to know if that solution holds, but for the upcoming winter with a Nina, you typically do get a more dominant polar jet (versus the subtropical jet in an El Nino). We haven't had a good clipper pattern honestly since Feb of 2010 that I can recall. Would love to see that continue. GEFS shows more of a synoptic phased system so rain ending as a little snow, the clipper solution in other words isn't supported at this time. CMC isn't really showing anything for us, but a big low for New England. Finally, the Euro is also showing the bigger system idea cutting west of us and bombing out over Michigan. Euro is likely too amp'ed up as usual.

Anyway... before we get there, the forecast for next week starts cold, then warms up briefly, then rain later Wed afternoon to perhaps early Thurs, then we drop again. We shall see as usual.

sbpstudios wrote: ↑Sun Nov 14, 2021 10:20 am Getting some nice fat flakes mix in with rain here in Williamsburg.

Same here Roy. 36 degrees currently.

Beautiful out there today!

Currently right at the freezing mark here in Greenville.

Overnight GEFS and EPS runs for the last week of Nov. An improving pattern for winter lovers if correct. As usual IF CORRECT.

I thought I posted. Anyway about 20 to 25 minutes ago it started snowing. Nice big flakes. Heading out to get gas and can't wait to see how people are reacting to this.

No accum obviously... but seeing some nice size flakes here attm

i hate to see this already. would have been much happier to see in late Dec

Mod snow now... and 35. Not sticking as I mentioned but cool to see first flakes on 11/14!

young pup wrote: ↑Sun Nov 14, 2021 8:38 am My brother is at Notre Dame for work. This is what he walked out to. He said it 88 at his home in California yesterday. I said welcome back to the Midwest. LolFAC18FA8-5027-4E23-8496-8389D52B57F3.jpegFAC18FA8-5027-4E23-8496-8389D52B57F3.jpeg

Hey JP,

My folks had an early 60th wedding anniversary celebration during the week of Labor Day and they stayed part of the time at a Notre Dame motif-themed time share in Mishawaka, IN, not far from South Bend. Their actual anniversary is Dec 17th. They went on a self drive-through tour of the campus for the fun of it.

I have a late uncle (Mom's bro) who was a Fighting Irish fan. One of my favorite football movies will always be "Rudy".

Still holding at the freezing mark here in G'ville.

Beautiful fat flakes here. Leaves and snow are falling in my backyard!

Precip rate lightened up so back to rain here. 0.05" liquid precip total so far.

Grassy areas and roof tops getting covered now - been snowing at a moderate clip for awhile now.

Temp is 33 and 0.03” liquid so far.

Just stopping by to say hello. I've pretty much had the same conditions as Les since I live about 2 miles from him. Definitely nice to see the first snowflakes of the season! I'll try to be more active on here.

-Kris

Good afternoon from Amelia/Pierce Township.
Had very light snow earlier this morning while checking on our livestock and chickens.
Rain falling presently 36.

Mattp

Thanks for posting Kris! Hope to see more of you too! Mike, Doug, JP, Bo, Eric etc. thanks guys for reporting in as your hoods are going to do the best (as we expected) with this event. Appreciate everyone's reports... Lisa, Dave, etc.

Mjr wrote: ↑Sun Nov 14, 2021 12:12 pm Good afternoon from Amelia/Pierce Township.
Had very light snow earlier this morning while checking on our livestock and chickens.
Rain falling presently 36.

Mattp

Hey Matt! Thanks for posting and sharing your observations.

12Z GFS has ditched the clipper solution right before Thanksgiving and is now on board with the rest of the guidance with rain then after the front passes, wind and falling temps. Any backside flakes TBD... A cold Thanksgiving is likely at any rate from this distance. 12Z GEFS also agrees.

Nice to see familiar faces posting again !!!

A rain/ snow mix here all morning with temps hovering at 36/37

37 here, pretty much all rain from here on out. 0.09" precip total.